$6.6 NL HE MTT: Underpair getting min-raised on the turn after making delayed C-bet

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

6.6

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

Game is a $6.6 On Demand SnG on ACR Poker. Still 3 more blind levels left, before late registration close. Opponent had stats of VPIP 20 / PFR 14 with a 3-bet of 20 and an AF of 8 over a sample of 80 hands. 3-bet and AF are still not very accurate after 80 hands, but at least there is some indication of aggression in those numbers. How do you react to the turn raise, and if you call, what is your plan for the river? Do you C-bet flop or check both flop and turn?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 500/1,000 (100 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG (Hero): 47,162 (47 bb)
MP: 77,800 (78 bb)
CO: 27,720 (28 bb)
BU: 26,000 (26 bb)
SB: 29,925 (30 bb)
BB: 31,250 (31 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,100) Hero is UTG with 8♠ 8♣
Hero raises to 2,500, MP calls 2,500, 4 players fold

Flop: (7,100) 2♠ 5♣ A♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Turn: (7,100) A♦ (2 players)
Hero bets 2,840, MP raises to 5,680, Hero?

 

[SpanRmonka]

Call and see river and likely lose to a set or 2 pair! Hopefully without putting in too many extra chips

 

[primrose]

This is a hard one. If you call, I would expect a big River bet most of the time. So you can't call and then fold to that. If you call, you have to be willing to call a Potsized bet with a middle pair, possibly with a second overcard on the board.

... which, I think, given Villain's stats, is in fact what you have to do here. So yeah, call the Turn, hope the River is not a broadway, check it either way, and then if it isn't a broadway, call almost any bet... unless you hit the set, then you can raise all-in.

And if it is a broadway, then, ugh, I don't know. Probably fold.

Or, I mean, you can just fold the Turn. That's much safer, but probably lower EV.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the comments. My thoughts in real time was, that I simply did not believe, he would check back top pair on the flop and then min-raise, when it became trips on the turn. Or for that matter check back a set. I found it much more likely, he thought, he could attack a capped range, even though he also had a capped range himself. So I called, and here is, how it played out.

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[primrose]

Spoiler

Can't believe he gave up on a T. What a coward 😒

I guess it's low stakes so I shouldn't have been confident in predicting anything, but like, you have to blast the River if you do this. Hitting the call button after a minraise is easy; this line won't get the folds he needs.

 

[fundiver199]

If he had bombed the river, that would for sure have put me in a tough spot. But luckily for me he gave up

 

[SpanRmonka]

Nice result! Interesting hand.

Its such a weird turn bet. You can only really fold a total bluff to that min raise.....so what is he trying to achieve apart from that...

Do we think when these kind of strange lines occur they are more likey strong or more likely weak in population terms??

 

[fundiver199]

Its such a weird turn bet. You can only really fold a total bluff to that min raise.....so what is he trying to achieve apart from that...

Especially since he had a small pair, so he beat a total bluff.

Do we think when these kind of strange lines occur they are more likey strong or more likely weak in population terms??

No idea. Maybe it was a stop-raise? Meaning he make a small raise to increase the likelyhood, I will check the river instead of making a large bet, which would be difficult for him to call?