$$530 NL HE MTT: WCOOP Ladies $530 featuring PokerStars Pro GJReggie - Did she make the right play?

[blkmoney12]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

$530

Currency

$

GJReggie was featured at the final table for the WCOOP Ladies Championship earlier this week. During the hand in question, GJ was in 3rd with 30.7 BB's. She was UTG+1 with everyone folding to her and min-raises with AQspades. The CO bets 7BB's, the rest fold around back to GJ. She thinks for a few seconds and decides to shove her stack with a snap call from the CO who then shows her AKo. The AKo holds and GJ is eliminated.

There is a video of the hand below.

My question is, did GJReggie make a mistake by 4 betting all-in?

 

[300HPGOD]

Whenever we see a hand like this we miss out on all the stuff that has happened before the hand. TV poker can leave out the action leading up to big hands so we see some plays and think why would they do this but we dont see the lead up where player x may have been 3 betting frequently and therefore wider. Also this being 7 handed at the time makes a difference as well as in normal circumstances UTG+2 raise would give a different vibe than a hijack (which happens to be UTG+2 at this table) would give.

In this hand we don't know anything about the CO as observers. They could have been 3 betting a lot which would then make AQ suited a go hand with 31 BBs where as against a tight player we arent loving it. In this spot like all 3 bet spots we have to range the opponent compared to our hand. Without knowing anything about the villain but basing it on some population assumptions and position (they still have 3 to act after them) they are not weak here that often meaning my belief would be we can throw out the Ace wheel suited hands and even hands like KQ and KJ. I would think a more "normal" 3 et range like 99+, AJs+. Against that range we are 41% and I would think if we jam we would have at least some fold equity against 99 and 1010 but I dont think it is enough to overcome the equity disadvantage. So if GJ feels like there is no bluffs here and villain is not wide then a vast majority of the time they are flipping or worse and a decent amount of the time they are crushed.

One problem is though you cant call for 1/4th your stack here pre so you have to jam or fold. Folding AQ suited would make you exploitable if anyone could actually see your cards because then you are folding out pretty much everything but the equity against the estimated range isnt there. I think this is one that unless you know something about the villain then the math would dictate a fold. Have to go by what you believe the range is.

 

[Andyreas]

Interesting spot.

I find her open a bit small even if it wouldn't change anything but I would have opened something like 2.1 or 2.2 BBs.

The 3-bet is quite high, so it indicates a strong hand.

She could have also just called but the 7 BBs are nearly 25% of her stack, so she could also simply push, which is what she did.

I could not decide and asked ICMIZER. Results below:

Spoiler: ICM results

So her push was +EV, this time it just didn't work out since she met an even stronger hand and the third hearts just did not come.

 

[fundiver199]

She is not really opening "UTG+1", because this terminology refer to a table with 9 players, and they are only 7 left. She opened from HJ and got 3-bet by CO, and in such a situation folding AQs is way to tight against people, who have a balanced 3-betting range. Which we should absolutely assume, everyone has at the final table of a high-roller. This is not the kind of situation, where you find nits, who only 3-bet aces and kings, or anything of that nature.

So the hand is just a standard cooler, and I also prefer 4-bet jamming over calling, because she is out of position, and by calling she would already have put in 25% of her stack. She has fold equity, when she 4-bet jam, and when she get called, she have decent equity. Did not work out for her this time, but the hand is honestly not even interesting, and people, who would do anything other than 4-bet jam AQs in this situation, have a lot to learn

 

[jonaselloco]

In my case, I would have opened from UTG like she did. Seeing the villain's rise, he would have equalized to see the flop.
In fact, the flop was very profitable for her with a color project and even Q. If he goes all-in when he sees the flop, I really don't know if the villain would pay that flop allin with his AK.
Let's agree on the following, if he played badly or well, I really don't know, what I do know is that if a heart had hit the street, we would be talking about a perfect play.
It's the game like that, one day you win and another day you lose.
Thanks for letting me comment
Health

 

[blkmoney12]

Good evening to you all I like to thank you for the comments on my recent thread.

@300HPGOD Thanks for your comment. I would like to respond to your comment saying it wasn't a TV production. This was a live stream of a final table, not a TV production - it was live with a 30-minute delay. If you take a look at the video previous to the hand in question, we will see that she had a lot of four bets. We also, get the benefit of seeing why this happened before the hand that she was eventually eliminated. I just thought I would let you know (if you didn't know) that this was a live stream final table.

@fundiver199 - thank you for making a comment. I appreciate the correction you made as far as the positioning goes - sometimes I get that confused. If you knew more on how the game had been going leading up to the hand in question, can you see how there might be a different outcome to the hand?
Here's my thought:
GJReggie started the hand she had 30.7 BB's with AQs in HJ - Makes a 2xBB raise preflop - CO re-raises 7BB's - GJ shoves with the remaining 28.7 BB's
Another option could be to see GJ simply call the re-raise from the CO to see the flop. And as we know, the flop was looking favorable for GJ and may have given her a better opportunity to then shove her stack. In this case, she would have more Equity with her two spades on the flop.
If the Flop does not give you more equity then you could always fold you still would have 23.8 big blinds and you're still in the tournament. If you looked at all the stacks from 2nd to 7th the stacks were pretty shallow and she still could have had time to play and recover that's just my opinion on it and if you have anything to say about that I am glad to let you speak on it thank you have a nice day and thanks for commenting.

 

[eetenor]

Good evening to you all I like to thank you for the comments on my recent thread.

@300HPGOD Thanks for your comment. I would like to respond to your comment saying it wasn't a TV production. This was a live stream of a final table, not a TV production - it was live with a 30-minute delay. If you take a look at the video previous to the hand in question, we will see that she had a lot of four bets. We also, get the benefit of seeing why this happened before the hand that she was eventually eliminated. I just thought I would let you know (if you didn't know) that this was a live stream final table.

@fundiver199 - thank you for making a comment. I appreciate the correction you made as far as the positioning goes - sometimes I get that confused. If you knew more on how the game had been going leading up to the hand in question, can you see how there might be a different outcome to the hand?
Here's my thought:
GJReggie started the hand she had 30.7 BB's with AQs in HJ - Makes a 2xBB raise preflop - CO re-raises 7BB's - GJ shoves with the remaining 28.7 BB's
Another option could be to see GJ simply call the re-raise from the CO to see the flop. And as we know, the flop was looking favorable for GJ and may have given her a better opportunity to then shove her stack. In this case, she would have more Equity with her two spades on the flop.
If the Flop does not give you more equity then you could always fold you still would have 23.8 big blinds and you're still in the tournament. If you looked at all the stacks from 2nd to 7th the stacks were pretty shallow and she still could have had time to play and recover that's just my opinion on it and if you have anything to say about that I am glad to let you speak on it thank you have a nice day and thanks for commenting.

Equity realization and range segment are why calling is not good there- if we call the pot is 16 and we have 23- If we check flop CO bets 33% or more so 5 or more that makes the pot 21 with us having 23 and we miss a lot of flops. So the shove is based on getting some folds-flipping some times- and realizing full equity- If we call we have to realize equity to win but CO is not going to let us see 3 streets easily

 

[fundiver199]

As eetenor say, the issue with just calling the 3-bet preflop is, that she will get bluffed a lot. If for instance the flop comes K72 rainbow, the opponent will bet AK or AA for value, but they will also bet a hand like A5s or JTs as a bluff. And how is she going to handle this, when the pot is already so big, and she have so little left behind? She have no good options, and this is why, its best to avoid the situation by playing a push or fold strategy preflop.

Also while she was a bit midstacked here, its still important to give herself a chance to win the tournament and not just focus blindly on the next payjump. And maybe even more so in this particular event, which was labeled "world championship". This is not one, which run every day or week, so the title might actually matter to her and other players. Whereas nobody will care or remember, if someone finished in seventh or fifth place.