$5.5 NL HE MTT: Learn from the opponents - know why you are betting the river

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

5.5

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

Third and for now final instalment of "trying to learn from my opponents". In this hand I think, the opponent made reasonable decisions on the flop and turn. Lets just ignore preflop, since we can end up in a similar situation without making a loose open. For instance his hand could have been suited. The interesting point here is the river bet, because what does this accomplish? He essentially have bottom pair, so its very unlikely, a worse hand will call.

So presumably he was turning his pair into a bluff. But what can he make me fold, that arrive to the river like this? When I call his flop bet with a player left to act behind me, most of my range will be AX and maybe some 8X. There were no draws, and I cant call on a pure float with a player left to act behind me. This makes it very unlikely, I have a K. If I have an 8, I would probably fold to a pot sized river bet. But he chop with an 8, so he only win half the pot by bluffing.

I am obviously never folding a 4, if I somehow have that. And I am also never folding an A, because on the river all aces chop except for AK and A8, and I just dont believe, he check the turn with two pair or better. So if I have an ace, which I do very often, as the action went down, I am beating him into the pot expecting to often chop, sometimes win against a bluff and very rarely lose.

So the conclusion is, he can mainly make me fold a hand, he already chop with, and for that reason his best option is to check and then make a decision, if I bet. Most likely fold, since I dont really have any hands, that call on the flop and now need to bluff.

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[primrose]

I've once asked a pretty famous poker pro (whom I just happened to know from another game) what the single most important thing about poker is, and he said, "remember that there are only three reasons to bet: (1) get a better hand to fold, (2) get a worse hand to call, (3) denying equity (much less important than the other two)".

In live poker you see people making bets that don't fit any of these all the time. Just recently I had a hand where I (preflop aggressor) bet the Flop and the Turn and my opponent called me twice with a Queen high OESD. Then when they got a Q on the River (top pair), they jammed for their tournament life. It didn't make any sense because now they had a strong hand and didn't need to bluff. The same move would have made much more sense if the Queen hadn't come. As is it was almost an exact reverse where all the weaker hands would fold and all the stronger hands would call.

Most live players (and some online players) actually just don't think logically about their bets at all; they're using a vibe-based heuristic which sometimes sort of works but other times yields nonsense plays, especailly on the River.

 

[Andyreas]

As the previous poster has said, most players don't really think that logically about their bets or actions.

In this specific example, I could read into it that he was trying to evaluate on the turn if you had an Ace but since you did not bet, he assumed you do not have one and tried to represent it himself on the river.

But just my five cents.

 

[fundiver199]

In this specific example, I could read into it that he was trying to evaluate on the turn if you had an Ace but since you did not bet, he assumed you do not have one and tried to represent it himself on the river.

Probably something like that. And its true, that I have capped my range by checking the turn. But so have he, and on the river a bet still need to either get called by worse or make better fold. There is no other purpose of betting, whatever you are trying to represent. To be fair maybe I could have 99-TT and play like this, and those hands would likely fold. But its still a very narrow range to target, and a pot sized bet need to work 50% of the time, if we are bluffing.

 

[Andyreas]

To be fair maybe I could have 99-TT and play like this, and those hands would likely fold. But its still a very narrow range to target

Yeah that's some hands I had in mind: small/medium pocket pairs that missed their set and fold to any reasonable second bet.
But as you said, a very small range of hands that would fold to such a bet.