$3.3 NL HE MTT: Pocket aces facing another huge overbet on the flop

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

3.3

Game Options

1. Turbo

Currency

$

Lately it seems like, people always go crazy postflop, when I have pocket aces. This one is mostly for fun, since we recently discussed another similar hand, I played, and a hand from a live MTT. This one is a little bit different, because the opponent limp-called preflop and then donk shoved the flop. Stacks are 52BB effective, but because the pot is a little bigger due to preflop, his shove is "only" for 4,5 x the size of the pot. Game is a hyperturbo MTT on Stars, and the opponent was playing VPIP 43 / PFR 15 / AF 1 over 268 hands. Here we obviously only have three options, which are call, fold or beat him into the pot. Not hiding the name this time in case its a tell

pokerstars, $3.02 + $0.28 - Hold'em No Limit - 50/100 (25 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

rellis41 (UTG): 5,259 (53 bb)
nige33 (MP): 5,213 (52 bb)
Mahsaman (CO): 5,000 (50 bb)
Fundiver199 (BU): 5,417 (54 bb)
2141236342311 (SB): 4,167 (42 bb)
dbedet (BB): 4,935 (49 bb)

Pre-Flop: (300) Hero (Fundiver199) is BTN with A♥ A♦
1 fold, nige33 (MP) calls 100, 1 fold, Fundiver199 (BU) raises to 400, 2 players fold, nige33 (MP) calls 300

Flop: (1,100) K♣ 6♥ 3♥ (2 players)
nige33 (MP) bets 4,788 (all-in), Fundiver199 (BU)?

 

[Andyreas]

Of course he might have a set but with a VPIP over 40%, I'm calling here any day. 🤓

 

[primrose]

For me, there's probably enough different here that I'm reluctantly calling:

- the on the board
- you having the
- the high VPIP
- this only being a 4x all-in, not as huge as what we had before
- and actually also the tournament structure, I could see someone thinking that they need to win this pot to stay afloat or something and view this as a legit time to bluff

But I still won't be surprised at all if the reveal is 33 or 66.

 

[puzzlefish]

It's a call for me, there's enough suited draws and Kx that will do this.

 

[r_iiiichard]

We're probably not winning almost ever here, and it will depend on the villain's profile to really do this with just Kx, I think it's much more 2 pairs or better, sometimes there might be a flushdraw, but I don't know... Not to mention that it's still very early in the tournament and considering that Ok, we're not winning but we still have relevant outs, it seems like a good call to me.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for the comments. As most have probably guessed, I did make the call. The SPR here was 4,5, and with such an SPR against a fishy opponent I am generally willing to play for stacks with an overpair, as long as the board is reasonably clean. And this one definitely is. There is no made flush or straight yet, and while a 43% VPIP player can have some two pair on this board, its not that many.

Maybe he play K6s and K3s but probably not 63s or any of the offsuit combos. So there is just not all that much, I am behind to here. And while I could see a set or two pair go into panic mode to "protect against the flushdraw", I think, its more likely, he has a flushdraw himself or maybe just top pair. So with all of that said this was the result:

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