$2.10 NL HE MTT: Bet the Turn?

[tzuriel]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

2.10

Currency

$

I get donked on the Flop and make the obvious call but should I be bluffing the 2nd Q on the Turn? Is he showing weakness by checking or trying to trap because he flopped top pair with no kicker? or he has some weak J and will call any bet, probably. A bluff here would be a pure bluff, essentially, having only 4 outs and just the River coming

NL Holdem $2+$0.10 (4000.00BB)
BTN (4.4BBs)
SB (64.6BBs)
BB (24.9BBs)
UTG (42.9BBs)
HERO (83BBs) [VPIP: 36.8% | PFR: 26.1% | AGG: 23.2% | Hands: 2322]
MP (11.9BBs)
CO (10BBs)

Dealt to Hero: 9♥ 8♥

UTG Folds, HERO Raises To 2.3BBs, MP Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Calls 1.7BBs, BB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [9.92 effective]
Flop (6.3BBs): 4♣ Q♠ J♠
SB Bets 2BBs (Rem. Stack: 60.3BBs), HERO Calls 2BBs (Rem. Stack: 78.7BBs)

Turn (10.3BBs): 4♣ Q♠ J♠ Q♥
SB Checks, HERO Checks

River (10.3BBs): 4♣ Q♠ J♠ Q♥ 5♣
SB Bets 4.6BBs (Rem. Stack: 55.6BBs), HERO Folds

Spoiler

SB wins: 10.3BBs

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
This is probably the worst suited connector, I would open from LJ.

Flop
You flopped a gutshot, but as draws go, they dont come much worse than this, because if you make a straight, AK and K9 will have a better straight. Maybe you dont need to worry to much about AK, since he just called preflop, but he can have K9, and you can have AK, so if nothing else a T will slow him down, if he can hand read at all. Its also a 2-tone board, so sometimes you will make a straight but lose to a flush. And of course you have undercards to the board, so unlike AK, which is also a gutshot, you can not make top pair, and you are behind to the majority of his draws.

You are getting a good price of 4:1, but your hand is so bad, that I think, its needs fold equity to continue profitably. Which mean, that either you can raise right now, or you can go for the float play, which mean calling in position and then almost always betting the turn, if he check. In order to raise I would prefer to have a little more going on like even just a BDFD with 9c8c. So I am ok making a float play here, and I would also be ok with just making a tight fold. In general we do not want to fold to small donk bets, but this is literally one of the worst hands, you can possibly have after opening from LJ.

Turn
The plan to bet the turn if checked to should have been made already on the flop. If you get check-raised, its not like, its a disaster to have to fold a hand this bad. The hands, that might want to check back to not reopen the betting, would be strong draws like AsKs or KsTs.

River
If you wake up with a raise now, you represent nothing, and of course you can not call with 9 high, so as played an easy fold.

 

[tzuriel]

Yes. Bottom of range but in these fast moving Turbos, I think it's an okay open. It's still very early though so I can definitely support a fold pre as well. It seems that I just lost control of the pot when I didn't bet the turn. And as you mentioned, I didn't plan it ahead at the flop. I'll think more strategically in the future!

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop is ok. Its probably an almost break-even open in theory. However postflop I dont think, calling the flop is profitable, if your only plan is to try to hit a T. When he donk 30% pot on the flop and check the turn, he does not look all that strong, so this is a good spot to bluff the turn and then also bluff most rivers including the one, that actually came. Even if you only get him to fold busted draws, that already something, when all the draws have missed. And he could also be leading with a hand like A4 "to find out where he is".

 

[primrose]

I think the most important practical takeaway is, you don't have to automatically call with a draw. You're definitely not getting the price here. You only have three good outs to the straight (the is not amazing), and even the straight you get is not the nuts. 3 cards is 6% on each street.

Which also means that the only way this Flop call is defensible is if you're planning to bluff. So, yeah, if you float the flop then it is so that you can take the Pot on the Turn. So you should intend to bet, and you should bet pretty big, maybe 8BB, maybe even overbet.

... however, the Turn card is a really terrible card to bluff, so you could reconsider after seeing it.

In any case, I think folding the Flop is the best play anyway. I think it's like Fold Flop > call Flop with intention of barreling Turn (whether we do it on this turn card or not) > Raise flop directly > Call Flop with intention to check Turn

The reason is just that this board with two suited broadways is super dangerous, I wouldn't want to fight over it with someone who's shown interest in the pot.

 

[primrose]

Raising the flop directly is not a very attractive play to me because SB can just put you on a draw; there are so many draws here. AK, AT, KT, K9, 98, any two spades.

 

[fundiver199]

however, the Turn card is a really terrible card to bluff, so you could reconsider after seeing it.

If I had C-bet the flop with a draw and gotten action, I would typically check this card, because its obviously bad for draws, when the board pair, and if the opponent just turned trips, he might check-raise. However here its a donk bet on the flop, and then the opponent check the turn, and for me thats a very different situation.

I think, the frequency of him checking trips after donking top pair on the flop is very low, especially on a board with many draws. So apart from some slowplayed boats (44, QJ or Q4), I think, his range consist mainly of draws or weak made hands like a J or worse. And while a J is probably not folding to one bet, maybe its folding to two bets, and everything else is likely to fold out.

I will even discount boats somewhat, because I think, two pair or a set would want to put more chips in on the flop, either by check-raising or by making a big donk bet like close to full pot rather than just 30% pot. So I think, the risk of him having something better than a J here is fairly small, and for that reason I think, its an ok spot to bluff.

The reason is just that this board with two suited broadways is super dangerous, I wouldn't want to fight over it with someone who's shown interest in the pot.

If the donk bet had been half pot or more, I would definitly just fold on the flop. It just feels really weak to fold to such a small donk bet.

Raising the flop directly is not a very attractive play to me because SB can just put you on a draw; there are so many draws here. AK, AT, KT, K9, 98, any two spades.

There is also the issue, that when we raise and get action, we are building up a big pot, and we prefer to do that with hands, that are happy to play a big pot on at least some runouts. And this hand does not qualify for that, because even if it binks the perfect runout, its still only the third best straight. Even having a hand like K9 would be better, because then at least we make the second best straight, and we can also improve to top pair on a K, which is a lot better than improving to third pair.

 

[primrose]

If I had C-bet the flop with a draw and gotten action, I would typically check this card, because its obviously bad for draws, when the board pair, and if the opponent just turned trips, he might check-raise. However here its a donk bet on the flop, and then the opponent check the turn, and for me thats a very different situation.

I think, the frequency of him checking trips after donking top pair on the flop is very low, especially on a board with many draws. So apart from some slowplayed boats (44, QJ or Q4), I think, his range consist mainly of draws or weak made hands like a J or worse. And while a J is probably not folding to one bet, maybe its folding to two bets, and everything else is likely to fold out.

I'm more or less on the same page as you (most plausible small blind hand is Jx, not Qx, he's generally likely to fold Jx if we apply pressure). But the reason I thought the Turn card was bad to bluff is just that we're mostly representing a Q with a bet, and the second Q makes it 33% less likely that we have one.

But yeah it could still work. Either make a really big Turn bet or make a medium Turn bet followed by a maybe 2/3 River bet; most Js would probably fold to that. Probably.

 

[fundiver199]

But the reason I thought the Turn card was bad to bluff is just that we're mostly representing a Q with a bet, and the second Q makes it 33% less likely that we have one.

And we are probably not putting in 3 bets with KK or AA, so yes our value range does indeed shrink on this card.

But yeah it could still work. Either make a really big Turn bet or make a medium Turn bet followed by a maybe 2/3 River bet; most Js would probably fold to that. Probably.

I also think, there are other hands in Villains range like KT, T9, spades and some random stuff. And all of that is very likely to fold if not on the turn then at least on the river. Jx might actually get sticky, because we are repping kind of thin.