$16,5 NL HE MTT: Top pair meh kicker facing an unusual line near the bubble

[fundiver199]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

16,5

Game Options

1. Deep Stacked

Currency

$

Hand is from a $16.5 "big" on pokerstars. 40 players left, 34 places pay. Do you fold or jam here, and any comments about earlier action? Opponent stats: VPIP 32 / PFR 8 over 50 hands.

PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 400/800 (100 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 4,638 (6 bb)
MP: 26,908 (34 bb)
CO: 45,829 (57 bb)
BU (Hero): 17,799 (22 bb)
SB: 11,940 (15 bb)
BB: 22,950 (29 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,800) Hero is BTN with T♠ A♦
1 fold, MP calls 800, 1 fold, Hero raises to 2,400, 2 players fold, MP calls 1,600

Flop: (6,600) J♣ 9♦ A♥ (2 players)
MP bets 1,600, Hero calls 1,600

Turn: (9,800) 5♥ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets 5,880, MP raises to 11,760, Hero?

 

[eetenor]

Hand is from a $16.5 "big" on Pokerstars. 40 players left, 34 places pay. Do you fold or jam here, and any comments about earlier action? Opponent stats: VPIP 32 / PFR 8 over 50 hands.

PokerStars, $14.70 + $1.80 - Hold'em No Limit - 400/800 (100 ante) - 6 players
Hand delivered by CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/hand-converter.php

UTG: 4,638 (6 bb)
MP: 26,908 (34 bb)
CO: 45,829 (57 bb)
BU (Hero): 17,799 (22 bb)
SB: 11,940 (15 bb)
BB: 22,950 (29 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,800) Hero is BTN with T♠ A♦
1 fold, MP calls 800, 1 fold, Hero raises to 2,400, 2 players fold, MP calls 1,600

Flop: (6,600) J♣ 9♦ A♥ (2 players)
MP bets 1,600, Hero calls 1,600

Turn: (9,800) 5♥ (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets 5,880, MP raises to 11,760, Hero?

so we start with 22-3 open- 2 flop-7.25 your bet turn=9.75bb stack left before the click back it is 7.25 leaving us 2.5 if we call so jam or fold as played-
typically players with those type of stats are not good tricky- so they expect you to have an Ax hand
so fold and min cash---

In this spot vs that potential villain type I am checking back the turn -decide river to protect my stack for after the bubble. We get thin value on the river from all worse AX and some Jx

J little poker coach makes very good points about how to play marginal made hands---we do not need to turn them into bluffs nor bloat pots with them- on the turn AT is a marginal made hand vs V's possible range

 

[300HPGOD]

Pre: makes sense to me to raise here especially with a 15 BB stack behind us that could jam squeeze and would not feel amazing calling it off with A10 off so it seems to make sense to punish a limper who by their stats limps too much. I also like the sizing on these big of blinds where we dont have to 4x to isolate we usually only need to 3x to get it heads up.

Flop: We get led into for small which usually means (at least at the low stakes I play at) that villain has a draw or some sort of pair which they feel like you would check back the flop too often for their liking. We have the 10 which is a blocker to all the straight draws outside of KQ so I would think this bet is actually Jx or 9x often since we can account for two of the aces. I would just call here as well since if I feel like I am way ahead of them (pair over pair) I would not want them to go anywhere on a board that has some wetness but again, hero having the 10 there is crucial so I like calling as you did.

Turn: This is where I disagree with you and agree with Eetenor where this should be a check back or at least if you bet a smallish bet and not one over half pot. Villain is saying they are giving up a bit or trapping, either or which we dont want to blow away from the hand (or attempt to in a case of a trap) so I like checking back here with the intention of calling most river bets as bluff catcher. This is not a 3 street hand anyway with top pair 10 kicker so we would need to "rest" a street so to speak and this seems like the right spot. I still put villain on Jx or 9x until we bet and get raised. After we get raised it comes down to how good do we think villain is at knowing the situation cause they can ICM eff the crap out of you here if they want to and if you are a player who cares about cashing (I know the bubble doesnt scare you but villain doesnt and their raise has to be at least considered as strength and not a bluff if not a heavy favorite to be strength). Assuming we know nothing about villain then we have to go into the tank. What Ax are they small betting flop and then check jamming turn knowing we likely will check back often on turn? Maybe A5 and A9 but I think AJ raises pre even with their low pre flop raise stats. So it seems like A5, A9, or a bluff (Jx, 9x that is ICM playing you). My gut tells me that it is the latter and that this is a call but I guarantee in game I fold. I say call since jamming will only get calls from hands that beat us and we are only calling here because we think they are on a play so why would we want to blow them off that play? This is just too good of a spot to click it back and get many better hands to fold that I feel that is what the opponent is doing here. Just another reason to check here and play the river in position.

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks for your comments. I agree, that my turn bet should be smaller, and given the stack sizes and bubble situation a check-back would also be reasonable. What happened in real time was, I read his line as very weak, and I wanted to "punish" that. Which would have been ok, if we were deep, but here I kind of accidentally committed myself to the pot. So when he essentially check-jammed, I was getting a sick price, but on the surface at least I am also supposed to be beat.

However I dont like folding after putting in more than half my chips, and I also felt, his line did not make a lot of sense. Maybe A5 play this way, but thats like one hand, that beat me. So I got curious and stuck it in. Dont think calling makes sense, because if he has a better hand, he is for sure putting me all-in on the river, but he could potentially save some chips with a busted draw. Anyways he of course called, and here is the result:

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[eetenor]

Pre: makes sense to me to raise here especially with a 15 BB stack behind us that could jam squeeze and would not feel amazing calling it off with A10 off so it seems to make sense to punish a limper who by their stats limps too much. I also like the sizing on these big of blinds where we dont have to 4x to isolate we usually only need to 3x to get it heads up.

Flop: We get led into for small which usually means (at least at the low stakes I play at) that villain has a draw or some sort of pair which they feel like you would check back the flop too often for their liking. We have the 10 which is a blocker to all the straight draws outside of KQ so I would think this bet is actually Jx or 9x often since we can account for two of the aces. I would just call here as well since if I feel like I am way ahead of them (pair over pair) I would not want them to go anywhere on a board that has some wetness but again, hero having the 10 there is crucial so I like calling as you did.

Turn: This is where I disagree with you and agree with Eetenor where this should be a check back or at least if you bet a smallish bet and not one over half pot. Villain is saying they are giving up a bit or trapping, either or which we dont want to blow away from the hand (or attempt to in a case of a trap) so I like checking back here with the intention of calling most river bets as bluff catcher. This is not a 3 street hand anyway with top pair 10 kicker so we would need to "rest" a street so to speak and this seems like the right spot. I still put villain on Jx or 9x until we bet and get raised. After we get raised it comes down to how good do we think villain is at knowing the situation cause they can ICM eff the crap out of you here if they want to and if you are a player who cares about cashing (I know the bubble doesnt scare you but villain doesnt and their raise has to be at least considered as strength and not a bluff if not a heavy favorite to be strength). Assuming we know nothing about villain then we have to go into the tank. What Ax are they small betting flop and then check jamming turn knowing we likely will check back often on turn? Maybe A5 and A9 but I think AJ raises pre even with their low pre flop raise stats. So it seems like A5, A9, or a bluff (Jx, 9x that is ICM playing you). My gut tells me that it is the latter and that this is a call but I guarantee in game I fold. I say call since jamming will only get calls from hands that beat us and we are only calling here because we think they are on a play so why would we want to blow them off that play? This is just too good of a spot to click it back and get many better hands to fold that I feel that is what the opponent is doing here. Just another reason to check here and play the river in position.

This is a very good break down of your thought process-thank you for taking the time to share it with us all