$11 NLHE MTT: SCOOP 102 - Low | BTN vs SB

[mariussica88]

This hand is against the same opponent like the previous hand.
BTN has 48 hands: VPIP 29 PFR 23 Limp 3 Post Flop AGG 2 Flop C-bet 57 Turn C-bet 100 StealPct 50 and 3-bet 7.69

Do you guys think I should fold pre-flop?

pokerstars - 600/1200 Ante 150 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 8 players
Hand converted by Holdem Manager 3

UTG: 24,550 (20.5 bb)
UTG+1: 102,749 (85.6 bb)
MP: 41,662 (34.7 bb)
MP+1: 22,765 (19 bb)
CO: 16,935 (14.1 bb)
BTN: 34,549 (28.8 bb)
Hero (SB): 131,645 (109.7 bb)
BB: 41,274 (34.4 bb)

8 players post ante of 150, Hero posts SB 600, BB posts 1,200

Pre Flop: (pot: 3,000) Hero has
5 folds, BTN raises to 2,400, Hero raises to 8,220, fold, BTN raises to 34,399 and is all-in, Hero calls 26,179

Flop: (71,198, 2 players)

Turn: (71,198, 2 players)

River: (71,198, 2 players)

Results: 71,198 pot (0 rake)
Final Board:

Spoiler

Hero shows : (Two Pair, Jacks and Fives)
(Pre 46%, Flop 1%, Turn 0%)

BTN shows : (Four of a Kind, Jacks)
(Pre 54%, Flop 99%, Turn 100%)

BTN wins 71,198

 

[fundiver199]

When the shove is for such a small percentage of your stack, we can just run a chip EV calculation, and based on pot odds you need 36,6% equity to break even. After calculating this you pull out Equilab and plug in, what kind of range, you think, he would open from BTN and then 4-bet jam for 28,8BB against a SB 3-bet. I am not going to do it for you, but I think, this one is close possibly leaning towards a fold. In my opinion being against a hand like JJ is actually the best outcome, you could hope for here, and even then you only had around 45%.

 

[IADaveMark]

Yeah, I usually assume AA, KK, AK, maybe QQ, maybe AQ... all of those have you dominated. And for that much of your stack, how do you want to find out you want to find out you were wrong? Diver is right that JJ- was unlikely to see, but you are still flipping on those anyway. Too big to take a chance with.

 

[300HPGOD]

29/23 player opening from the button is probably something like 50-60% of their range. That does not always mean they are at the bottom of that range but they could easily be quite wide. The BB comes into play as well here as depending on how aggressive they are we can flat here if we think they are never raising us as even though we are out of position we have a hand that flops well. 3 betting is fine as well against what should be a loose opener as this but as soon as we get 4 bet I think this is a fold. Yes we have them covered in chips but this is still 25% of our stack and that is not something that we want to give away to not only lose that but also prop up a player that we can take advantage of to our right when they are low.

Do we think we are getting 4 bet by KJ off type hands? Probably not so their range I would think would be something at the loosest like A9 suited +,A10 off+, 99+. Using that loosest range we are at 37% with KQ diamonds. Doing the math that puts us right on the fold/call line. However this is the loosest range I think they would be doing it with and its still close so I would fold here.