$11 NL HE MTT: AA in UTG1

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

11

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

This is an $11 Bounty Builder and we are at the beginning ( played around 1h ) of this tournament so the bounty are minimal at this point for the most part.

BB Stats after 20 hands at this table: VPIP 20 PFR 5 Cold Call 11 Limp 11

Is folding an option here?

Spoiler: my thoughts

I really took some time to think over this hand and the more I think and since there where so many callers the probability that one of them have an Tx hand is big

pokerstars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (60 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 39,157 (78 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 29,471 (59 bb)
MP: 24,486 (49 bb)
MP+1: 44,658 (89 bb)
CO: 52,346 (105 bb)
BU: 7,380 (15 bb)
SB: 22,258 (45 bb)
BB: 12,470 (25 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,230) Hero is UTG+1 with A♦ A♠
1 fold, Hero raises to 1,100, 2 players fold, CO calls 1,100, 1 fold, SB calls 850, BB calls 600

Flop: (4,880) T♥ T♣ Q♥ (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 2,489, 2 players fold, BB raises to 11,310 (all-in), ?

Spoiler: Result

Turn: (27,500) 5♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (27,500) 7♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 27,500

Showdown:
BB shows 4♥ 6♥ (a flush, Queen high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 21%, Flop: 30%, Turn: 18%, River: 100%)

UTG+1 (Hero) shows A♦ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 79%, Flop: 70%, Turn: 82%, River: 0%)

BB wins 27,500

 

[monkeytilter]

I think with villain being so short you just have to sigh call it off - unless you have specific read he's nitty (quick read is he's not). 10x is only a part of his range, there can be some over played Qx fearing the flush draw and plenty of flush draws, KJh is the only one that gives us real sweat (but you are still getting a price) possibly even some manic OE draws. so again with his stack size call it off.

As a side note. I'd consider upping my preflop raise size a little if you are getting lots of multiway pots pre and as an exploit raise more with bigger hands if villains just don't seem to notice/care/just want to get in pots with shorter stacks for their bounty

 

[Mortis]

This is a tough one, but I may have ended up folding the Aces. Although, I am interested to know what the SB and BB did before it came back to you. I assumed they folded.

First, let's look at the stack size and bet size. BB started with 25BBs and you with 59BBs. If you lost the hand, it would put you at 34BBs. Still an alright stack, but that is nearly half your stack.

Post Flop: The pot looks to be 4,880 if my math is correct. You bet roughly half the pot post flop, and BB shoves to almost double the pot. I'm not sure you have enough equity to call the shove, as their range could easily be AT, KT, QT, JT, or they could be on a straight or flush draw with KJ, or even the Royal draw with KJh. If they are on a flush+straight draw, even at best, you're a 55/45.

They've either hit their T or are on a draw. Best hand that you would have to hope for they had would be KJo with no flush draw. That would put you at an 80/20 favorite. But there are so many other hands here that could beat you. Fold.

 

[monkeytilter]

This is a tough one, but I may have ended up folding the Aces. Although, I am interested to know what the SB and BB did before it came back to you. I assumed they folded.

First, let's look at the stack size and bet size. BB started with 25BBs and you with 59BBs. If you lost the hand, it would put you at 34BBs. Still an alright stack, but that is nearly half your stack.

Post Flop: The pot looks to be 4,880 if my math is correct. You bet roughly half the pot post flop, and BB shoves to almost double the pot. I'm not sure you have enough equity to call the shove, as their range could easily be AT, KT, QT, JT, or they could be on a straight or flush draw with KJ, or even the Royal draw with KJh. If they are on a flush+straight draw, even at best, you're a 55/45.

They've either hit their T or are on a draw. Best hand that you would have to hope for they had would be KJo with no flush draw. That would put you at an 80/20 favorite. But there are so many other hands here that could beat you. Fold.

He's getting 1.7:1 on the pot (calling 11k into 19k), needs about 38% equity to call and you're advising a fold with a value-beater here??? hmm...

 

[Mortis]

He's getting 1.7:1 on the pot (calling 11k into 19k), needs about 38% equity to call and you're advising a fold with a value-beater here??? hmm...

I'm saying I would have. To me, this is a judgment call on this hand and not an easy one.

 

[fundiver199]

I kind of lean towards checking this flop, since its a bit of a way ahead way behind situation, and you are against 3 opponents. Someone could definitely have a T in their hand, and given stack sizes I would not be willing to stack off against either CO or SB. So the check is for pot control and to possibly allow someone else to bluff at it, although that is pretty rare in a multiway pot. BB however is so short, that I would be willing to stack off against him specifically.

So as played, when the other two guys have folded, its a very easy call, when BB check-jam. He could have a T, but he could also be going with a Q or a draw, as in fact he was. It seems like a rather results oriented post, because why would you want to fold, when you got it in with 70% equity, good pot odds and being able to win his bounty as well? Its seems like one of those, where you would never have posted this hand for analysis, was it not for the fact, that he happened to get there.

 

[eetenor]

This is an $11 Bounty Builder and we are at the beginning ( played around 1h ) of this tournament so the bounty are minimal at this point for the most part.

BB Stats after 20 hands at this table: VPIP 20 PFR 5 Cold Call 11 Limp 11

Is folding an option here?

Spoiler: my thoughts

I really took some time to think over this hand and the more I think and since there where so many callers the probability that one of them have an Tx hand is big

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (60 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 39,157 (78 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 29,471 (59 bb)
MP: 24,486 (49 bb)
MP+1: 44,658 (89 bb)
CO: 52,346 (105 bb)
BU: 7,380 (15 bb)
SB: 22,258 (45 bb)
BB: 12,470 (25 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,230) Hero is UTG+1 with A♦ A♠
1 fold, Hero raises to 1,100, 2 players fold, CO calls 1,100, 1 fold, SB calls 850, BB calls 600

Flop: (4,880) T♥ T♣ Q♥ (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 2,489, 2 players fold, BB raises to 11,310 (all-in), ?

Spoiler: Result

Turn: (27,500) 5♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (27,500) 7♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 27,500

Showdown:
BB shows 4♥ 6♥ (a flush, Queen high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 21%, Flop: 30%, Turn: 18%, River: 100%)

UTG+1 (Hero) shows A♦ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 79%, Flop: 70%, Turn: 82%, River: 0%)

BB wins 27,500

In multiway pots because there are soo many ranges we want to have a fundamental strategy regarding do we bet and if so how much.
Standardly if we bet smaller sizes is the bet--the reason is our reduced equity advantage vs 3 players there is 3 time as much chance someone has a T 3x as much flush draw 3x as much combo draw when we bet half pot what do we do when we are raised? what is raising us Tx xxhh what? The hands that will fold to half pot will fold to a third pot so we invest less.

 

[Poker Orifice]

Fold
Flushes always hit on Stars and he's bound to be on a flush draw
I doubt a '10' just piles it in there...

 

[eetenor]

I kind of lean towards checking this flop, since its a bit of a way ahead way behind situation, and you are against 3 opponents. Someone could definitely have a T in their hand, and given stack sizes I would not be willing to stack off against either CO or SB. So the check is for pot control and to possibly allow someone else to bluff at it, although that is pretty rare in a multiway pot. BB however is so short, that I would be willing to stack off against him specifically.

So as played, when the other two guys have folded, its a very easy call, when BB check-jam. He could have a T, but he could also be going with a Q or a draw, as in fact he was. It seems like a rather results oriented post, because why would you want to fold, when you got it in with 70% equity, good pot odds and being able to win his bounty as well? Its seems like one of those, where you would never have posted this hand for analysis, was it not for the fact, that he happened to get there.

I think this is a good review hand, as I mentioned -betting smaller or checking on flop and you mentioned checking flop both much stronger strategies that the Hero did not use on this board texture VS # of villains.

 

[Bhargav]

I expect flush draw or straight draw. I would only call if I had big stack. Full house, flush, straight and all possibilities are there so I would fold.

Villain has succeeded, he doubled up and has more stack than you after the game. Stack should be considered.

 

[sibkaz]

I would drop my aces, or give me a promotion on small things

 

[Morghulies]

Fold
Flushes always hit on Stars and he's bound to be on a flush draw
I doubt a '10' just piles it in there...

This is something, I experience a lot too. I can not proof it by stats, it's only a thing I feel happens way too often on Pokerstars. If there is a slight chance that a villain who is way behind hits a flus, he/she will more than I can handle. I would like to see some statistics about how often flushes happen on Pokerstars and if they fit the statistical amount of them expected to happen over millions of hands. I would think they are happening more than they statistically should.

 

[primrose]

This is something, I experience a lot too. I can not proof it by stats, it's only a thing I feel happens way too often on Pokerstars. If there is a slight chance that a villain who is way behind hits a flus, he/she will more than I can handle. I would like to see some statistics about how often flushes happen on Pokerstars and if they fit the statistical amount of them expected to happen over millions of hands. I would think they are happening more than they statistically should.

The chance for this being true is close to 0%, mostly because there are players with millions of hands who could provide statistic proof if it were true, and this would be a monumental scandal for PokerStars that would probably single-handedly ruin the company, for a questionable benefit.

But you are in good company; people keep asserting these kinds of things all the time (and often they state it as fact rather than just asking, as you did). Which makes me really curious about why. It's probably selective memory where we remember the times flushes came in more, along with a survivorship bias (because if people don't hit their flush they often fold before or on the River).

I play live and whenever there's some unlikely runout or two people having very strong hands, often someone will comment that this is "like online".

 

[Morghulies]

The chance for this being true is close to 0%, mostly because there are players with millions of hands who could provide statistic proof if it were true, and this would be a monumental scandal for PokerStars that would probably single-handedly ruin the company, for a questionable benefit.

But you are in good company; people keep asserting these kinds of things all the time (and often they state it as fact rather than just asking, as you did). Which makes me really curious about why. It's probably selective memory where we remember the times flushes came in more, along with a survivorship bias (because if people don't hit their flush they often fold before or on the River).

I play live and whenever there's some unlikely runout or two people having very strong hands, often someone will comment that this is "like online".

Thanks for your answer. I am pretty sure that you are right. It might well be the thing about selective memory. It happens to me quite a lot. Not only in Poker, I guess. I tend to remember the bad things easier than the good ones. Should probably work on this. 😊

 

[eetenor]

This is an $11 Bounty Builder and we are at the beginning ( played around 1h ) of this tournament so the bounty are minimal at this point for the most part.

BB Stats after 20 hands at this table: VPIP 20 PFR 5 Cold Call 11 Limp 11

Is folding an option here?

Spoiler: my thoughts

I really took some time to think over this hand and the more I think and since there where so many callers the probability that one of them have an Tx hand is big

PokerStars, $9.80 + $1.20 - Hold'em No Limit - 250/500 (60 ante) - 8 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 39,157 (78 bb)
UTG+1 (Hero): 29,471 (59 bb)
MP: 24,486 (49 bb)
MP+1: 44,658 (89 bb)
CO: 52,346 (105 bb)
BU: 7,380 (15 bb)
SB: 22,258 (45 bb)
BB: 12,470 (25 bb)

Pre-Flop: (1,230) Hero is UTG+1 with A♦ A♠
1 fold, Hero raises to 1,100, 2 players fold, CO calls 1,100, 1 fold, SB calls 850, BB calls 600

Flop: (4,880) T♥ T♣ Q♥ (4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets 2,489, 2 players fold, BB raises to 11,310 (all-in), ?

Spoiler: Result

Turn: (27,500) 5♣ (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (27,500) 7♥ (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: 27,500

Showdown:
BB shows 4♥ 6♥ (a flush, Queen high)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 21%, Flop: 30%, Turn: 18%, River: 100%)

UTG+1 (Hero) shows A♦ A♠ (two pair, Aces and Tens)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 79%, Flop: 70%, Turn: 82%, River: 0%)

BB wins 27,500

This is an ugly board for your hand betting half pot on flop is too big. We can check flop as our value target is a queen and we can make a queen pay as much as we want on 2 clean streets after flop

 

[Poker Orifice]

Thanks for your answer. I am pretty sure that you are right. It might well be the thing about selective memory. It happens to me quite a lot. Not only in Poker, I guess. I tend to remember the bad things easier than the good ones. Should probably work on this. 😊

It's entirely normal to do this.
fwiw, I was being sarcastic above with my comment (sorry)