$1.10 NL HE MTT: TQs call or fold?

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

1.10

Currency

$

This is a regular $1.10 tournament with 10min levels, do you guys think calling is an option here?
What range do you think he has here?
Only 17 hands played with him here but has a VPIP 17 and PFR 17, not much info on him.

Spoiler

*I really think he had a better Qx hand then me, also a set and and over pair is more likely.

pokerstars, $0.98 + $0.12 - Hold'em No Limit - 25/50 (6 ante) - 9 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 2,837 (57 bb)
UTG+1: 2,033 (41 bb)
MP (Hero): 2,273 (45 bb)
MP+1: 3,298 (66 bb)
LP: 4,128 (83 bb)
CO: 1,387 (28 bb)
BU: 3,659 (73 bb)
SB: 1,033 (21 bb)
BB: 7,028 (141 bb)

Pre-Flop: (129) Hero is MP with T♦ Q♦
2 players fold, Hero raises to 125, MP+1 3-bets to 375, 5 players fold, Hero calls 250

Flop: (879) Q♣ J♥ 2♣ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 300, Hero calls 300

Turn: (1,479) 4♥ (2 players)
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 2,617 (all-in), MP (Hero) folds

Total pot: 1,479
MP+1 wins 1,479

 

[DegenerateSheep]

I don't really know how your MP opening range looks like, but QTs is gonne be quite low strength to call a 3-bet with from the player immediately after you. Especially in the $1.10 where 3-bets are more value-heavy than they should be.

Post-flop as played I would have done the same, especially since the flop bet was so small we can't fold anything that connects with the board, and the turn overbet is 2x pot.

I don't think villain filters out his overpair or sets with that low bet, I think there are enough players who be small-ish with their entire range on this board although I'm not sure that is actually correct. This leaves a lot of strong value hands that can jam, and a double FD board yields a lot of goof bluffs, but not sure if people actually bomb this enough..

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open. Facing the 3-bet solvers do often like to call with suited and connected hands presumably for board coverage. So presumably this call is "correct" or at least close. However I cant help to feel, that in a buyin this low, and with the 3-bettor being the guy next to add, that it might be fine to overfold a little bit, and it certainly makes our life easier to just get rid of the hand now.

Flop
Even though you flopped top pair, your hand is still mostly a bluff catcher. But at least you beat AK, and you are getting 4:1. So if you are going to fold now, one has to ask, why you called preflop. On the other hand if you check-raise, you are only getting action from better hands. So not much to do here other than stick in a call, which you did.

Turn
The first thing to note here is, that Hero is the effective stack, so the bet is actually only around 1.600 and not 2.600, meaning its only a little over pot. And the bad news is, I think, all value hands play like this on a dubble flushdraw board. So there is a lot of value, you lose to. There could be some bluffs as well, but are there enough of them? I think, this is a good spot to study with Equilab or a similar program, so I did.

Starting with his value lets give him JJ+, AQ, KQs, QJs. That seems fair enough. Against that range you are obviously crushed with only 7,4% equity. Lets add some bluffs then, and the most reasonable ones are of course the two flushdraws. I gave him AK, AT, A9, A8, A5, A3 and KT of either suit. I dont want to give him every possible suited combo, because I dont think, suited aces or suited broadways are always 3-bet off in this early position configuration. Now you have 27,5% equity, so still not enough.

If I also give him all 16 combos of AK, you have 40,7% equity, so now it finally becomes a call. But this is really the best case with a very bluff heavy opponent, who also 3-bet wide. If we assume a narrow 3-betting range, we have to take out all the weak suited aces and KTs as bluffs, and then of course also QJs as value. If we keep all AK as bluffs, you have 34,2%, so now its a fold again.

So all in all I do think, this is a good fold. Its easy to get caught up in the nominal strength of your hand in this case "LOL I have top pair". But when your opponent is clearly representing something stronger than your hand, it does really matter, if you have top or bottom pair. You are still bluff catching, and if that is only marginally profitable even in the best case scenario, the better choise is to fold.