What percentage of luck vs skill do you think is involved in NLH Poker?
sandy358
Rock Star
Platinum Level
I kinda disagree. In freerolls because of the bad play exploits are far more applicable, which adds quite a bit to the skill component. Hypothetical 100% GTO professional game would be 100% luck, because of the fact that all players play optimally (though a. in order to play somewhat close to the optimum you need to have a ton of skill and b. nobody can play 100% optimally).
And, yeah, in freerolls most of the people (me included) just leak money to the rest of the players because of poor ICM play, and if you have enough understanding of the ICM not to leak like that, you can enjoy free money.
U
Ujimiflip
Enthusiast
Bronze Level
No amount of skill can get you winning on a downswing, if your having a bad downswing day/days/week/weeks... then there is nothing skill can do..no matter how you play hand after hand bad luck strikes, and usually unbelievably so. I like to play fairly tight, cautiously and find that downswings happen way more than upswings. Skill aids the days you run good. Seen as the game is mostly a losing game, in a 6 handed game where top 2 get paid there are always 4 losers. In tournaments there are 80-90% losers. In any hand unless its a split pot there is 1 winner and always 1+ losers. If you watch the biggest tournament games online, luck in the all ins plays a huge part...no skill involved.
Kerasuss28
Rock Star
Platinum Level
99% luck🍀🍀🍀
1% skill 🤓🤓🤓
Y
yuya
Rock Star
Platinum Level
I'm a beginner in English. I'm using a translation App. Please let me know if I make any mistakes in my English.
It's 100% skill.
However, there are some prerequisites.
First, you need to ensure a sufficient number of trials for variance to converge.
Because of this, luck tends to play a significant role in tournaments and similar settings.
Also, the difference in skill between yourself and your opponent matters—a stronger player will gain more the longer they continue.
For example, in a match between two advanced players of equal skill, the result is determined by luck, much like a coin toss.
However, between an advanced and an intermediate player, the longer the match goes on, the more the advanced player will benefit.
From the intermediate player's perspective, it's best to lock in their gains as soon as they experience a favorable streak.
Even if you're not as strong as a top-level player, you can keep winning by targeting opponents weaker than yourself.
It's 100% skill.
However, there are some prerequisites.
First, you need to ensure a sufficient number of trials for variance to converge.
Because of this, luck tends to play a significant role in tournaments and similar settings.
Also, the difference in skill between yourself and your opponent matters—a stronger player will gain more the longer they continue.
For example, in a match between two advanced players of equal skill, the result is determined by luck, much like a coin toss.
However, between an advanced and an intermediate player, the longer the match goes on, the more the advanced player will benefit.
From the intermediate player's perspective, it's best to lock in their gains as soon as they experience a favorable streak.
Even if you're not as strong as a top-level player, you can keep winning by targeting opponents weaker than yourself.
Baboazra
Rising Star
Bronze Level
This is how one player who when the tournament starts adheres to all the rules, patience, playing only strong hands not too much risk and then when I have already collected a lot of chips and knocked out a lot of people, it starts to happen to me that I have three and already won hand and the opponent gets the last 2 cards or color or scale and so on indefinitely. I can't explain why this is happening to me, but there's so much frustration that I can't even sleep. And it's not once so come on, but always at the end of the tournament that let's say yesterday I have an ace and a ten he has a two and an eight in his heart, on the flop comes an ace I ten but also one heart, and now imagine the next two cards a man plays on the line and what comes two hearts, and I was in the position if I pass I come to 6th place and there are 20 left and it pays out only 10 and that I got in the hunt myself because I don't play for big amounts. I threw my cell phone into the armchair that bounced into the window and made a hole in the window for my whole head. So here you think is it luck, accident and beware something like that happens to me at least in 20 tournaments 10 times... 👹👹👹👹😢😢😢😢😢😢😢😢🤔
CDNMAN 42
Legend
Loyaler
I think it is hard to apply a % to the amount of luck, however having regularly experiencing both kinds of luck, the bad type is more memorable..example. following two hands were played in a row during the league and I really believe there is a ton of bad luck at work here:"
https://www.casino.org/replaypoker/replay/1271577643/full-house-tens-full-of-sixes
www.casino.org
and of course an equal amount of good luck for my opponent
https://www.casino.org/replaypoker/replay/1271577643/full-house-tens-full-of-sixes
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and of course an equal amount of good luck for my opponent
CDNMAN 42
Legend
Loyaler
absolutely. no skill after the flop, I would wager that over 60% of hands are won by the worst starting hands out...
john_entony
feed the Fox
Loyaler
It's a good question, but it can't be answered easily. A lot depends on the depth of the stacks and the speed of the blinds changing. The slower tournament is, the skils play more important role than luck. And a lot depends on the level of the rivals. For example, when two good players at heads-up do not make mistakes, then luck (I would even say bad beats) does matter more. 
M
MKAus
Rising Star
Bronze Level
Poker is not a pure skill game like chess. In chess, the stronger player always wins because there is no luck. But in poker, luck exists in every hand, from your hole cards to the river, and in every tournament from start to finish. No one can escape it.
Poker = Luck + Character (Patience, Calmness, Discipline) + Skill (last).
You may win a few tournaments with just skill and luck, but without strong character, you will lose most of the time. On the other hand, with luck and strong character — even with only a bit of skill — you can beat the pros and go deep in tournaments.
- Luck is the foundation. You need it to even have playable cards, and you need it again for those hands to actually hold up. Even the best pocket pair can lose when the board runs against you. Without luck, no amount of knowledge or study will carry you to the end.
- Patience, Calmness, and Discipline are what keep you alive long enough for luck to come. These mental characteristics are not easily learned or changed, but they are the real edge in poker. They prevent you from tilting, wasting chips, or forcing action. With strong character, you can survive the downswings and wait for luck to turn.
- Skill comes last. It is useful, yes — to extract maximum value when luck gives you good hands and when your discipline has kept you alive. But skill is learnable through books and practice, and it can never replace luck or character.
Poker = Luck + Character (Patience, Calmness, Discipline) + Skill (last).
You may win a few tournaments with just skill and luck, but without strong character, you will lose most of the time. On the other hand, with luck and strong character — even with only a bit of skill — you can beat the pros and go deep in tournaments.
J
JCchon413
Rising Star
Bronze Level
It depends on you and who you are playing against. If you are a rational player and your opponent also is, then luck has minimal influence. But if you are a gambler or your opponent is or both are, then you are leaving your fate mostly to chance. As long as people are playing rationally, i would say 80% skill and 20% luck.
