There is a correct bluff frequency, as you can read about in Sklansky's "The Theory of Poker".
Yes, there is and sometimes that correct bluff frequency is 0%. The micro stakes players I'd consider bluffing are few and far between.
I had (AT-o) in a middle position and opened for a game standard 3XBB. The target, Peggy Sue (not his real name) called behind and we went head-up to a (Kc, 7c, 5) flop. I lead off with a routine Ā½ pot continuation bet (c-bet) and he called. After he called, I had to think about how to win this one. I had the Ac, and since the Kc was on board, the best flush draw he could have would be: (QcJc) or (QcTc). Would he call with that pre? Possibly since heād know I didnāt necessarily have to have a really strong hand, given my position. Would he call that flop to draw to such a hand? Thatās highly unlikely, as he couldnāt eliminate suited aces from my possible openers. Peggy would know he could easily be facing a triple threat: that he was up against a pair of kings already, that an ace might roll off that could pair me, or that he could be drawing to a second best flush. Peggy isnāt a typical rec-fish, and he would recognize just how risky this situation is.
As to what he had, I put him on a weakish king up to and including (KQ) or a possible high under pair like jacks, tens, or possibly nines. He could also play (AQ) (AJ) that way, and those hands beat me, or an unlikely (AT) for the tie. A set of sevens or fives are also not outside the realm of possibilities here. These hands make sense, given the cold call pre, and the flop call of what he would recognize as a routine c-bet. If he had (AK) or pocket queens, heādāve reraised pre. He could have been getting tricky with pocket aces, but if he had that hand, he would raise that flop, given the two-flush, and that he couldnāt have the Ac, that a third club would kill his action, and that it looks like a safe flop for top pair, top kicker (TPTK) to play strongly.
Fourth St. brings a complete brick that couldnāt possibly help either of our hands, so I lead out for another Ā½ pot sized bet. He called again. Now, Iām pretty certain that I can eliminate all the aces from his range, as those hands missed completely, and this pot is getting expensive. The river brings the club Iāve been looking for, and here I push it all-in. He has me covered, but not by much, so itās now a stack decision. He thinks about it, the timer runs out, and the 30 second timer starts. He lets it run out to auto fold. That he took that long to fold pretty much confirms he had (KQ) and flopped a pretty good king or he had a set.
This is not the play Iād ever consider against a rec-fish. Give the rec-fish a (KQ) in this situation and there is no question: heāll insta-call all the way to the river without a thought becauseā¦ Kings! This bluff worked only because my opponent was a thinking player who was capable of thinking about more than his cards. He was also thinking about my range and how his range stacked up. It also worked because I was telling him a consistent story: that I raised pre with the Ac, and some other combination that included clubs, as this makes sense, given the way I play and my position. He would also know that a c-bet was a routine play that didnāt necessarily mean I had TPTK, therefore, his call. The 4th St follow-up bet is also consistent with a nut flush draw on a board that missed a lot of a middle position cold calling range, and since I knew where the nuts were, he could put me on that draw. The river shove was just a bit over a pot-sized bet, and also consistent with a flush draw that hit on the end. He was left with a pure guess: did I, or did I not, have it? That he let the hand time out demonstrates that he was giving the hero call serious consideration.
Here is another example: open from MP with red sevens. WolfSong (not his real handle) 3-bets out of the big blind. Usually, I'd give the fold serious consideration: what else can a rec-fish have in this situation other than a big pair in the hole? However, this is WolfSong -- a thinking player. He knows that a middle position opening range has a lot more than just Premiums. He wouldnāt need just big pairs and Premiums to take a chance with a three bet as a resteal defense. He isn't just thinking about what he has, but also what I might have. I know more about his range than he knows about mine ā another reason why playing up front is so disadvantageous. I call the 3-bet, as we're effectively 100BB deep. The flop comes down (Ad, 9d, 6d). I estimate his three betting range from that position as:
JJ+
AK
AQ-s
WolfSong could also play middle suited connectors and single gappers like (T8-s) (J9-s) to balance the value portion of his three betting, big blind range.
Since the Ace of Trump is on board, all the diamonds have departed from his range. Even though (Kd,Qd) would give him the nut flush, he would probably flat that hand out of position. He bets out for Ā½ pot, totally standard. A pair of sevens isn't likely to be any good all by themselves, so I need to figure how to win this one. The flush draw, even though it's just seven-high, is likely to be good here, unless he has an "accidental" flush draw with a suited king or queen to go along with a likely high pair in the hole. The pocket sevens also give me a backdoor straight draw, and a third seven on the board is very likely to be good. I call.
The Turn brings a black five, improving the straight draw, and I can still hit a diamond that's likely to be good, and also hit the gutter on the river. He leads 2/3rds pot: I call.
The river brings a complete blank. He checks after leading twice. I'm pretty sure that checking back isn't going to win. I elect to shove into him, putting him to a stack decision. This line could mean several things: a TPTK, aces over, or a flopped set that was waiting to see if any more diamonds rolled off before dropping the hammer, a made flush slow played for the river trap, or a possible desperation bluff with a missed nut flush draw. The latter would be bad, and many a fish would glom onto that as an excuse to call.
WolfSong isn't simply playing his cards, he's also playing mine. He can't eliminate any diamonds from my range as (Kd,Td+) (Qd,Td+) and suited connectors are all in my MP opening range. The bet/call, bet/call line keeps that range wide open, as he can't eliminate hands from a range that he has less information about than I do. He tanks for about five seconds and folds. That pretty much confirms pocket kings or queens without a diamond. If he had (A,K) he could still fold, but as he would have TP, it would be a much closer decision on his part. The only other risk is that WolfSong takes it to the next level, and recognizes that my knowing his range, and his knowing that I know he knows this, means that he knows that I know that I could be bluffing. However, if WolfSong has one weakness itās that he isnāt as observant as he should be, and that he wasnāt paying enough attention to understand that I can level. He can be forgiven as itās highly uncommon to see leveling wars break out at 10NL.
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