CRStals
Moderator
Moderator
In previous parts of this series, we've looked at the psychology of poker from a short-term perspective. Now, let’s zoom out and take a long-term view.
You’ve probably been there: you've developed solid study habits, you play patient, disciplined poker, and you’re doing everything you need to succeed over the long haul. But then… you hit a rough patch. Losing session after losing session. You get your chips in good every time, but your opponent always seems to pull a miracle out of the bag. Your bankroll shrinks, and you begin questioning whether your game is really in the place it needs to be. Worse yet, you may wonder if you can stop the bleeding.
Let’s explore how to manage those extended downswings and stay focused on the bigger picture.
It’s easy to look at hands where you were ahead 75% of the time pre-flop but only won 25% of those hands and think, "I should've won those!" But the more important question is: Did you make the right read?
If you focus too heavily on numbers and ignore the nuances of your reads, you could overlook key leaks in your game. A session where your equity was high but your reads were off is a red flag. In poker, making the right read is just as important as the numbers on the screen.
Here are some things to consider before your next session:
Assuming you have a 35% chance of having a profitable session each time you sit down, the probability of having 10 consecutive losing sessions is only 1.35%. It’s a statistical anomaly, and it must end eventually.
Similarly, if you’re in a series of 10 all-ins with a 50/50 chance, the probability of losing all 10 is just 0.1%. The odds are against you, and luck will eventually turn in your favor. Keep trusting your play, and remember that variance is real, but it won’t last forever.
Red Flags:
Stay focused, trust your skills, and ride out the storm. Your luck will turn.
When was the last time you experienced a severe downswing, and how did you manage it? Share your tips below so others can learn from your experiences!
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So you never miss the next drop! Turn on notifications and keep sharpening your edge — one position at a time.
You can find all our poker learning series right here: CardsChat Learning Poker Thread Series Guide
You’ve probably been there: you've developed solid study habits, you play patient, disciplined poker, and you’re doing everything you need to succeed over the long haul. But then… you hit a rough patch. Losing session after losing session. You get your chips in good every time, but your opponent always seems to pull a miracle out of the bag. Your bankroll shrinks, and you begin questioning whether your game is really in the place it needs to be. Worse yet, you may wonder if you can stop the bleeding.
Let’s explore how to manage those extended downswings and stay focused on the bigger picture.
🔍 What We’ll Cover:
- Why stats can be misleading
- Pre-game approach for the next session
- Why the downswing will end
- Good habits to keep and red flags to watch for
💥 Why Stats Can Be Skewed to Tell You What You Want to Hear
If you've gone through an extended downswing, it’s tempting to focus on stats that seem to validate your play. You might tell yourself, "I’m getting it in good every time; the numbers should be in my favor!" Sure, you can analyze your equity when the chips go in and note how your opponent’s stats (VPIP, PFR, 3-bet %) are not sustainable long-term. But here's the catch: are you making the right reads?It’s easy to look at hands where you were ahead 75% of the time pre-flop but only won 25% of those hands and think, "I should've won those!" But the more important question is: Did you make the right read?
If you focus too heavily on numbers and ignore the nuances of your reads, you could overlook key leaks in your game. A session where your equity was high but your reads were off is a red flag. In poker, making the right read is just as important as the numbers on the screen.
💥 Pre-Game Approach to Your Next Session
When you're in the midst of a downswing, it's crucial not to overhaul your approach entirely. Instead, tweak your routine to avoid missing any potential leaks. Assume you’re playing optimally and focus on improving specific areas.Here are some things to consider before your next session:
- Get external feedback: Show your hand histories to another player whose opinion you trust. Avoid influencing their interpretation—use a hand replayer to maintain objectivity.
- Watch the table: Observe players before you sit down. This will give you useful insights into their playstyle and tendencies.
- Take breaks: Build in scheduled breaks during your session. After an orbit, step away for five minutes to reset and reflect.
- Lower your risk tolerance: In cash games, consider lowering your stakes. Playing smaller pots in lower-stakes games might help you regain confidence and focus.
- Play fewer tournaments: If you're playing multiple tournaments, try reducing the number of tables you play at once. This can improve your focus.
- Trust the process: Understand that variance is part of the game. If you play sound poker, even if you lose, you're still making the right decisions.
💥 Why It Has to End
If you’re on a losing streak with double-digit losing sessions, it’s easy to feel discouraged. But let’s consider the math.Assuming you have a 35% chance of having a profitable session each time you sit down, the probability of having 10 consecutive losing sessions is only 1.35%. It’s a statistical anomaly, and it must end eventually.
Similarly, if you’re in a series of 10 all-ins with a 50/50 chance, the probability of losing all 10 is just 0.1%. The odds are against you, and luck will eventually turn in your favor. Keep trusting your play, and remember that variance is real, but it won’t last forever.
💥 Good Habits to Focus On vs. Red Flags to Avoid
During a downswing, it's important to stay vigilant about your habits. Here are some red flags to watch for, and habits to nurture:Red Flags:
- Stats deviation: If your VPIP increases and your PFR decreases, you're likely playing out of character. This could be a sign that you're trying to play more pots to recover losses.
- Loss of passion: Poker is a game, and it should remain fun. If it starts to feel like a chore, you may need to step back.
- Incorrect reads: If you're misreading hands or opponents more frequently, it might signal that your focus is slipping.
- Chasing losses by moving up stakes: Trying to move up in stakes to recover losses is a dangerous move. Stick to a level where you feel comfortable.
- Avoiding tough opponents: If you’re psychologically avoiding players who seem to have your number, it might indicate that you're losing confidence.
- Consistency: Aim to maintain consistent stats, especially after profitable sessions. Your numbers should reflect the same disciplined approach.
- Accurate reads: Continue honing your ability to read opponents and assess hands correctly.
- Relax and have fun: Poker should be enjoyable. Relax at the table, don’t let bad beats overwhelm you, and enjoy the challenge.
- Preparation: Always go into each session prepared, without carrying the emotional baggage from previous losses.
🎯 Summary
Variance will hit every poker player. It’s inevitable. But when you find yourself repeatedly facing bad beats and losing sessions, step back and assess: was it a bad beat, or did you miss something in your decision-making? Did you make the right play? Self-reflection is key to long-term success. Poker is as much about the art of reading people and situations as it is about the science of the cards.Stay focused, trust your skills, and ride out the storm. Your luck will turn.
💬 Discussion:
How do you stay focused during a downswing?When was the last time you experienced a severe downswing, and how did you manage it? Share your tips below so others can learn from your experiences!
🔔 Subscribe to the CardsChat Learning Series
So you never miss the next drop! Turn on notifications and keep sharpening your edge — one position at a time.
You can find all our poker learning series right here: CardsChat Learning Poker Thread Series Guide
