Poker is 80% skill and 20% luck

[maxstell]

Poker is 80% skill and 20% luck (bad beat) no matter how much you are the best player in the world and you know everything about poker, that 20% of luck will always be for you or against you will always have 20% chance factor, luck, bad beat always that 20% of luck will be there no matter how skilled you are playing poker and you know everything about poker and you are the best in the world playing poker you will always have 80% of skill and 20% of luck, you are going to play against a person who can't read and write 100 times and you will win him 90 times and lose 10 Times More skills are better but remember 80% SKILL 20% LUCK. “Phil Ivey VS Moneymaker”
Are they going to accept it?
DOES ANYONE WANT TO SAY THE OPPOSITE?

POSTSCRIPT: “YOU NEVER PAY TO STUDY POKER IS YOUR WORST DECISION”

you can buy books and read them to learn, but what's the use of books if the internet exists? In 1980 in 1990 there was no internet today at that time it was your best decision to buy a poker book but today it's a REGULAR (INTERMEDIATE) decision.

BUY POKER COURSES: NO
BUY poker books: WHAT YOU DECIDE IS A REGULAR DECISION, WE ARE ALREADY IN 2025 WE ARE NO LONGER IN 2001.

80% SKILL 20% LUCK

someone wants to say something...

 

[maxstell]

Poker is 80% skill and 20% luck (bad beat) no matter how much you are the best player in the world and you know everything about poker, that 20% of luck will always be for you or against you will always have 20% chance factor, luck, bad beat always that 20% of luck will be there no matter how skilled you are playing poker and you know everything about poker and you are the best in the world playing poker you will always have 80% of skill and 20% of luck, you are going to play against a person who can't read and write 100 times and you will win him 90 times and lose 10 Times More skills are better but remember 80% SKILL 20% LUCK. “Phil Ivey VS Moneymaker”
Are they going to accept it?
DOES ANYONE WANT TO SAY THE OPPOSITE?

POSTSCRIPT: “YOU NEVER PAY TO STUDY POKER IS YOUR WORST DECISION”

you can buy books and read them to learn, but what's the use of books if the internet exists? In 1980 in 1990 there was no internet today at that time it was your best decision to buy a poker book but today it's a REGULAR (INTERMEDIATE) decision.

BUY POKER COURSES: NO
BUY POKER BOOKS: WHAT YOU DECIDE IS A REGULAR DECISION, WE ARE ALREADY IN 2025 WE ARE NO LONGER IN 2001.

80% SKILL 20% LUCK

someone wants to say something...

paguense la universidad es mas rentable a largo plazo ya que a ustedes les gusta hablar de largo plazo, besitos que anden bien jajajajajaja.

 

[primrose]

I mean without specifying any methodology or time horizon the 80% number is obviously rather silly. The proportion also seems widely off to me. I think 25% skill is on the larger end.

 

[pentazepam]

A few hands of poker: almost 100% luck.

Millions of hands of poker (in cash games): almost 100% skill.

 

[maxstell]

El póker es 80% habilidad y 20% suerte (bad beat) no importa cuánto seas el mejor jugador del mundo y lo sepas todo sobre póker, ese 20% de suerte siempre estará para ti o en tu contra siempre tendrás un 20% de factor de probabilidad, suerte, bad beat siempre ese 20% de suerte estará ahí no importa cuán hábil seas jugando al póker y lo sepas todo sobre póker y seas el mejor del mundo jugando al póker siempre tendrás 80% de habilidad y 20% de suerte, vas a jugar contra una persona que no sabe leer ni escribir 100 veces y le ganarás 90 veces y perderás 10 veces Más habilidades son mejores, pero recuerda 80% HABILIDAD 20% SUERTE. “Phil Ivey VS Moneymaker”
¿Lo van a aceptar?
¿ALGUIEN QUIERE DECIR LO CONTRARIO?

POSDATA: “NUNCA PAGARÁS PARA ESTUDIAR PÓKER ES TU PEOR DECISIÓN”

Puedes comprar libros y leerlos para aprender, pero ¿de qué sirven los libros si existe internet? En 1980 y 1990 no había internet. Hoy en día, comprar un libro de póker era la mejor decisión, pero hoy es una decisión normal (de nivel intermedio).

COMPRAR CURSOS DE POKER: NO
COMPRAR LIBROS DE POKER: LO QUE TÚ DECIDES ES UNA DECISIÓN REGULAR, YA ESTAMOS EN 2025 YA NO ESTAMOS EN 2001.

80% HABILIDAD 20% SUERTE

Alguien quiere decir algo...

Imagine a madman buying a poker course spending more than 100,000 dollars on the course it's the best in the world and playing a tournament and losing to a bad beat everyone's going to laugh in your face.

 

[pirateglenn]

The percentage is a great conversation starter, i mean thats the intention right?

If Poker was truly 80% skill, we would see a lot of changes with who wins what and how often, i certainly would want to see the sample data over how long a period of time etc etc if we were number crunching it down to a specific %.

As it is - i definitely feel the luck % is greater than 20%, so many variables though, cash games are historically high variance, i know from personal experience as i have played more live cash games than any other variant and trust me - it is not just about the level of player you come up against, 35 years later, i still see players chase any part of a pot if they connect - like A2 off on a 10, 2 , 7 rainbow board.
Cash games are a strange beast anyway....

 

[SPANKYSN]

I would like to see the extensive data that came to the 80/20 conclusion…97% of all statistics are made up on the spot…I would think…imho…that luck would be a much higher percentage.

 

[Grzegorz00pl]

Poker is 80% skill and 20% luck (bad beat) no matter how much you are the best player in the world and you know everything about poker, that 20% of luck will always be for you or against you will always have 20% chance factor, luck, bad beat always that 20% of luck will be there no matter how skilled you are playing poker and you know everything about poker and you are the best in the world playing poker you will always have 80% of skill and 20% of luck, you are going to play against a person who can't read and write 100 times and you will win him 90 times and lose 10 Times More skills are better but remember 80% SKILL 20% LUCK. “Phil Ivey VS Moneymaker”
Are they going to accept it?
DOES ANYONE WANT TO SAY THE OPPOSITE?

POSTSCRIPT: “YOU NEVER PAY TO STUDY POKER IS YOUR WORST DECISION”

you can buy books and read them to learn, but what's the use of books if the internet exists? In 1980 in 1990 there was no internet today at that time it was your best decision to buy a poker book but today it's a REGULAR (INTERMEDIATE) decision.

BUY POKER COURSES: NO
BUY POKER BOOKS: WHAT YOU DECIDE IS A REGULAR DECISION, WE ARE ALREADY IN 2025 WE ARE NO LONGER IN 2001.

80% SKILL 20% LUCK

someone wants to say something...

The 80/20 ratio, also known as the Pareto principle, is the observation that in many cases, 20% of the effort produces 80% of the results. In other words, a small portion of the causes or efforts is responsible for the vast majority of the results.
While it applies to many areas, unfortunately, in my opinion, it doesn't apply to poker. I've come across the statement that the higher the stakes, the less skill matters. I agree with this 100%. As the stakes increase, mental preparation becomes more important.

 

[RodrigoMartins]

I agree that luck will always play a role in poker, especially in the short term — but I personally think the percentages can shift depending on the context.
For example, in one single hand, luck might even be 80%! But in the long run, over thousands of hands, skill becomes the dominant factor. That’s why professional players consistently win over time — they understand variance, tilt control, hand ranges, and exploitative play.
Also, about studying: I think free resources are great (like CardsChat!), but I don’t see a problem with paying for a good course if it’s from a trusted source. I see it as an investment, just like someone paying for coaching in sports

 

[hutzpaf]

A pro who has been playing for over 30 years says that Luck accounts for less than half of success, an estimated 40 percent. The remaining 60 percent is skill, knowledge, and stress tolerance.

 

[pirateglenn]

The 80/20 ratio, also known as the Pareto principle, is the observation that in many cases, 20% of the effort produces 80% of the results. In other words, a small portion of the causes or efforts is responsible for the vast majority of the results.
While it applies to many areas, unfortunately, in my opinion, it doesn't apply to poker. I've come across the statement that the higher the stakes, the less skill matters. I agree with this 100%. As the stakes increase, mental preparation becomes more important.

Yes Mental preparation is important but you cannot control or prepare for how others play, its how you handle those downswings with variance that is key with experience and also picking up on the tells, betting patterns that truly helps alongside the usual skills such as bet sizing and positional play/Cbet play.
What playing at a higher level does teach you (if you can afford it) is to recognise when to squeeze play and when you are likely being squeezed - so much bluff play comes in at a high level, more so than people would probably believe, its crazy.

 

[HunRicky63]

Egy profi, aki több mint 30 éve játszik, azt mondja, hogy a szerencse a siker kevesebb mint felét, becslések szerint 40 százalékát teszi ki. A fennmaradó 60 százalék készség, tudás és stressztűrés.

I think it takes more knowledge, but it also takes luck!

 

[blueskies]

Over the short run, luck is the dominant determining factor.

 

[Aleksandr1991]

Покер — это 80% мастерства и 20% удачи (бэдбит). Независимо от того, насколько вы лучший игрок в мире и знаете ли вы всё о покере, эти 20% удачи всегда будут на вашей стороне или против вас, всегда будет 20% фактора случайности. Удача, бэдбит всегда будут этими 20% удачи. Независимо от того, насколько вы искусны в покере, знаете ли вы всё о покере и являетесь лучшим в мире, играя в покер, у вас всегда будет 80% мастерства и 20% удачи. Вы будете играть против человека, который не умеет читать и писать, 100 раз, и вы выиграете у него 90 раз и проиграете 10 раз. Больше навыков — лучше, но помните: 80% МАСТЕРСТВА 20% УДАЧИ. «Фил Айви против Манимейкера»
Примут ли они это?
КТО-НИБУДЬ ХОЧЕТ СКАЗАТЬ ОБРАТНОЕ?

ПОСЛЕДСТВИЯ: «НИКОГДА НЕ ПЛАТИТЬ ЗА ИЗУЧЕНИЕ ПОКЕРА — ЭТО ВАШЕ ХУДШЕЕ РЕШЕНИЕ»

Можно покупать книги и читать их, чтобы учиться, но какой смысл в книгах, если есть интернет? В 1980-х, в 1990-х, интернета не было, и сейчас купить книгу о покере было лучшим решением, но сегодня это ОБЫЧНОЕ (ПРОМЕЖУТОЧНОЕ) решение.

КУПИТЬ КУРСЫ ПОКЕРА: НЕТ
КУПИТЬ КНИГИ О ПОКЕРЕ: ВАШЕ РЕШЕНИЕ — ОБЫЧНОЕ РЕШЕНИЕ. МЫ УЖЕ В 2025 ГОДУ, А НЕ В 2001-М.

80% МАСТЕРСТВА 20% УДАЧИ

кто-то хочет что-то сказать...

The statement “Poker is 80% skill and 20% luck” is not entirely correct. From a broader perspective, poker is undoubtedly a gaming skill where success depends on the player's ability to make mathematically correct decisions rather than luck. However, in the future, luck plays a corresponding role, and even experienced players can lose due to random hands.

 

[bullkk]

I think poker is 50% skill and 50% luck.

 

[orchidra]

I would say poker is 41.125891% luck and 58.87411% skill.

I like this quote from Jesse May.
"Poker is a combination of luck and skill. People think mastering the skill part is hard, but they’re wrong - The trick to poker is mastering the luck."

 

[Shooter74]

60% Skill and 40% Luck....in my opinion...

 

[wrzlbrnft]

I think poker is 50% luck and 50% bad luck

 

[antonis32123]

For live poker I might agree with you , but not for online poker , no fu**** way for online poker . But the percentages ,maybe you exaggerate , skill might prevail on the long run , but 80-20 ??? Maybe 60-40 instead )))))

 

[TheniT]

Results comes in the poker long term precisely because in the short term luck may not prevail. Over time luck and unlucky are neutralized.

 

[fundiver199]

A few hands of poker: almost 100% luck.

Millions of hands of poker (in cash games): almost 100% skill.

Absolutely true although it should be said, that the luck element never declines to exactly zero. After 10 million cash games hands with a variance of 100, the standard deviation is 0,32 BB/100. So for a player with a winrate of 3BB/100 poker is still 10% luck and only 90% skill even over such a large sample, which for most part time players would take at least 20 years to play. Perhaps more importantly over 1 million hands, which for most part time players takes at least 2 years to play, the standard deviation is 1BB/100. So now poker is 33% luck, if your winrate is 3BB/100.

Many unstudied players think, 10.000 hands is a big sample, but over such a sample the standard deviation is 10BB/100, and a player with a winrate of 3BB/100 will be losing 38% of the time. Even over 100.000 hands the standard deviation is 3.16BB/100 and the risk of loss with a 3BB/100 winrate is 17%. So while the importance of luck does decline with sample size, "the long run" is much longer, than unstudied players tend to assume.

 

[R.Melnyk77]

Live poker is 80% skill and 20% luck.
Online poker is 50% luck and 50% skill.
That's the reality, and if you don't understand it now, you will in a few years.

 

[dreamer13]

In poker, the ratio of skill to luck changes depending on the distance of the game. In the short term, luck plays a more important role, while in the long term, skill becomes the dominant factor.

 

[pentazepam]

Absolutely true although it should be said, that the luck element never declines to exactly zero. After 10 million cash games hands with a variance of 100, the standard deviation is 0,32 BB/100. So for a player with a winrate of 3BB/100 poker is still 10% luck and only 90% skill even over such a large sample, which for most part time players would take at least 20 years to play. Perhaps more importantly over 1 million hands, which for most part time players takes at least 2 years to play, the standard deviation is 1BB/100. So now poker is 33% luck, if your winrate is 3BB/100.

Many unstudied players think, 10.000 hands is a big sample, but over such a sample the standard deviation is 10BB/100, and a player with a winrate of 3BB/100 will be losing 38% of the time. Even over 100.000 hands the standard deviation is 3.16BB/100 and the risk of loss with a 3BB/100 winrate is 17%. So while the importance of luck does decline with sample size, "the long run" is much longer, than unstudied players tend to assume.

Add to that: many MTTs have the most "important" hands at the end of the tournament when the blinds are high. I refuse to think that Phil Hellmuth is an absolute beast HU

You can play almost perfect poker at the beginning of an MTT, but if you don't get lucky when it's time to take those flips (often coinflips), it can all be for nothing.

 

[okeedokalee]

No matter hoe good you are the suckouts kill your winrate.