$2 NL HE MTT: Good bluff??

[Geo90]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

2

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/?hand=3aU3XS2

Hello again!

Was that a good bluff?

Pf: With 43BB, I think you can squeeze in an A8S in early position, but you can't miss the fold,

F: I bet a little bigger on a dry flop

T: not a bad card I got a straight draw, after the previous call I could have been a little bigger on this call

R: no power so far, I could have improved to a J straight, he could have had a straight draw or a second pair, I certainly wouldn't fold J here but I wouldn't have taken him with A high either I don't think
4-5K I didn't want to raise because I would have folded to allin,

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Standard open.

Flop
You have multible backdoor draws and an overcard, so this is not a complete miss. I think, all options are open here other than checking and folding to a small bet. If the opponent is overly aggressive, you could go for a check-raise, but if he is on the passive size and will rarely raise as a bluff, C-betting is probably the best option.

Turn
You picked up equity, so this is pretty much a mandatory barrel, but your sizing is to small. It looks like, you are block betting and trying to see the river for cheap rather than make him fold. I would bet 2.500-3.000 here to set it up for a less than pot sized river jam.

River
Sometimes A high has to much showdown value to bluff, but on this runout I dont think, he have many unpaired hands, and you even lose to some of them like a dubble float with AQ or AT. You also block straights and unblock backdoor clubs, so I think, this hand is a fine bluffing candidate. I dont think, overbet jamming is the best sizing though.

Compared to betting 60% pot or around 4.000 chips this need to work 2½ times as often, and in a $2 MTT I dont think, it will. Especially not when he has you covered, since you are not putting his tournament life at risk. I would not be trying to make a random unknown in a $2 MTT fold top pair or better. So my purpose of bluffing here is to get all his pair+ missed gutshot kind of hands to fold. His 87s, 65s and so on and so forth.

Something like 60% pot should accomplish that goal. If it does not, because he is a total calling station, then I dont want to bluff him at all but only bet for value. It sounds like you jammed, because you did not want to bet-fold, and this makes no sense at all, since the whole reason to bluff is, we dont think, we have the best hand. The hands, that dont want to get raised, are thin value bets like maybe JT, not bluffs.

 

[primrose]

^ Good take, I think I would go larger than 60% pot on the River -- not for any intellectual reason, just because I feel like that sends more of an "yes I'm serious sir I have an overpair sir" vibe, whereas 60% could look a little scared, and you may actually get hero-called by a crappy pair -- but otherwise agree with everything. And I still wouldn't overpot, I think 80-90% should do it.

 

[fundiver199]

Compared to betting 60% pot or around 4.000 chips this need to work 2½ times as often, and in a $2 MTT I dont think, it will.

Need to correct myself here, because of course the math is not that simple. A bet of 60% pot need to work 37,5% of time, whereas a bet of 163% pot (a jam in this hand) need to work 62% of the time. It does not change my conclusion though. I think, most of the hands, that fold to a jam, would also fold to 60% pot. Or perhaps slightly more like suggested by primrose.

 

[Geo90]

Preflop
Standard open.

Flop
You have multible backdoor draws and an overcard, so this is not a complete miss. I think, all options are open here other than checking and folding to a small bet. If the opponent is overly aggressive, you could go for a check-raise, but if he is on the passive size and will rarely raise as a bluff, C-betting is probably the best option.

Turn
You picked up equity, so this is pretty much a mandatory barrel, but your sizing is to small. It looks like, you are block betting and trying to see the river for cheap rather than make him fold. I would bet 2.500-3.000 here to set it up for a less than pot sized river jam.

River
Sometimes A high has to much showdown value to bluff, but on this runout I dont think, he have many unpaired hands, and you even lose to some of them like a dubble float with AQ or AT. You also block straights and unblock backdoor clubs, so I think, this hand is a fine bluffing candidate. I dont think, overbet jamming is the best sizing though.

Compared to betting 60% pot or around 4.000 chips this need to work 2½ times as often, and in a $2 MTT I dont think, it will. Especially not when he has you covered, since you are not putting his tournament life at risk. I would not be trying to make a random unknown in a $2 MTT fold top pair or better. So my purpose of bluffing here is to get all his pair+ missed gutshot kind of hands to fold. His 87s, 65s and so on and so forth.

Something like 60% pot should accomplish that goal. If it does not, because he is a total calling station, then I dont want to bluff him at all but only bet for value. It sounds like you jammed, because you did not want to bet-fold, and this makes no sense at all, since the whole reason to bluff is, we dont think, we have the best hand. The hands, that dont want to get raised, are thin value bets like maybe JT, not bluffs.

Thank you for your answers!

R: yes this is often a mistake I always call 1/3 pot, any draw can easily call such a small call

Then a call around 4000 would have been a better solution instead of allin,

I said allin because overbet is not very common in these bets, I also think of a very strong hand when I see it, if I just bet you can call with a 7/6 pair but they will fold with a pair higher than allin, but that's just me

 

[Geo90]

^ Jó meglátás, szerintem a riveren 60%-nál nagyobb potot tennék meg – nem intellektuális okokból, csak mert úgy érzem, hogy az inkább azt a „igen, komolyan mondom, uram, van egy overpare-em” hangulatot kelti, míg a 60% kicsit ijedtnek tűnhet, és egy vacak pár akár hősies megadást is kaphat – de egyébként mindennel egyetértek. És továbbra sem tenném túlzásba, szerintem 80-90%-kal érdemesebb játszani.

Next time I will try to play like this

 

[Geo90]

Need to correct myself here, because of course the math is not that simple. A bet of 60% pot need to work 37,5% of time, whereas a bet of 163% pot (a jam in this hand) need to work 62% of the time. It does not change my conclusion though. I think, most of the hands, that fold to a jam, would also fold to 60% pot. Or perhaps slightly more like suggested by primrose.

i love these calculations, they always remind me to think more, the problem is i don't do them myself yet

 

[eetenor]

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/?hand=3aU3XS2

Hello again!

Was that a good bluff?

Pf: With 43BB, I think you can squeeze in an A8S in early position, but you can't miss the fold,

F: I bet a little bigger on a dry flop

T: not a bad card I got a straight draw, after the previous call I could have been a little bigger on this call

R: no power so far, I could have improved to a J straight, he could have had a straight draw or a second pair, I certainly wouldn't fold J here but I wouldn't have taken him with A high either I don't think
4-5K I didn't want to raise because I would have folded to allin,

When we over bet jam river there are 2 strategies we use.
1
Our V is weak and will over fold. As played, this is the strategy you employed. We want to do this purposefully. That means you had to have the intention of getting single pairs to fold on the river--this is a good strategy when we do it on purpose.
How was this the strategy you employed-- your bet sizing on turn allowed your V to raise their better hands yet they did not raise. This means they are weak and if we know our player pool over folds then we have the green light to jam

If you knew this, it was a good bluff. If you did not have these specific thoughts, then not a good bluff. The good news now you know what to be thinking on the turn when our V just calls. You want to think about what cards you do not shove before the river comes but you know you are going to shove before the river comes.

2
When we assume our V do not over fold--- then we base our over bet jams on ranges-- specifically can we have the nuts because we would jam the nuts most often and balance with bluffs.
What is the nuts on this board on the river? T8 do we have a large number of combos of T8? Does our V?
Do we want to be jamming AA- QQ for value? Why would we Jam JJ on river for value? Why small bet turn with a set on that ugly of a board? So we really do not have sets to jam on river---vs a good player this is a suicide bluff it just does not make sense. It will get thru sometimes though even vs a strong player--just not often enough to be a good bluff.

@fundiver199 posted the approach we would use for strategy 2 --how to bluff stronger players by repping the correct range throughout the hand.

 

[Geo90]

When we over bet jam river there are 2 strategies we use.
1
Our V is weak and will over fold. As played, this is the strategy you employed. We want to do this purposefully. That means you had to have the intention of getting single pairs to fold on the river--this is a good strategy when we do it on purpose.
How was this the strategy you employed-- your bet sizing on turn allowed your V to raise their better hands yet they did not raise. This means they are weak and if we know our player pool over folds then we have the green light to jam

If you knew this, it was a good bluff. If you did not have these specific thoughts, then not a good bluff. The good news now you know what to be thinking on the turn when our V just calls. You want to think about what cards you do not shove before the river comes but you know you are going to shove before the river comes.

2
When we assume our V do not over fold--- then we base our over bet jams on ranges-- specifically can we have the nuts because we would jam the nuts most often and balance with bluffs.
What is the nuts on this board on the river? T8 do we have a large number of combos of T8? Does our V?
Do we want to be jamming AA- QQ for value? Why would we Jam JJ on river for value? Why small bet turn with a set on that ugly of a board? So we really do not have sets to jam on river---vs a good player this is a suicide bluff it just does not make sense. It will get thru sometimes though even vs a strong player--just not often enough to be a good bluff.

@fundiver199 posted the approach we would use for strategy 2 --how to bluff stronger players by repping the correct range throughout the hand.

Thank you for your reply!

I don't use Hudot, so I didn't have any information about it other than what I had seen on the desktop so far.
I felt that wasn't enough, so I decided to go with the jam.

108 It's unlikely that we have it from the start, we wouldn't open with it, it would be too loose.
Yes, the weak raise Turn could be a bluff, because I raised too little there, so thinking it through, it wasn't a good play to go all-in on the River.