Can you help me analyze this hand?

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budaloto

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I didn't raise enough or he was to stubborn?
 

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Huntre

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I didn't raise enough or he was to stubborn?
In flop your villain has 4 outs and make a bet size of pot, i think in this stage he just wants to take pot without fight.
In tern vilian still have same 4 outs and 8 % chance to make nuts, you bet pot and on spot of vilian has pot odds like 33% and out odds around 8% easy fall, but he calls.

Overall i think he is lucky in this case, and miss his opportunity on river to go all in.

P.S. Maybe my calculations is wrong, but answer on your question, yep you don't rise enouth at the flop.
 
SpanRmonka

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You bet pot on the flop, of course this is enough, you bet pot on the turn, villain def shouldn't be calling this.

You did well not to fire again, and it would have been a tough fold but one you should make if he bet river.....there's no real analysis needed here, you bet when you were winning and when you were liekly losing you didn't put any more money in, so you lost the minimum on this hand.

If he'd folded on the flop, you may well have been sitting wishing you didn't bet so much. Sometimes you just have to accept that pker hands just play out how they do, and you have to take some wins and some losses along the way
 
eetenor

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I didn't raise enough or he was to stubborn?
this player is terrible and is probably never folding but you could also have made a bigger turn bet. Vs a V like this 2x pot is fine on turn. Expecting to get called.

Why are they terrible- because they checked the nuts 2 you on the river.:unsure::geek:
 
SpanRmonka

SpanRmonka

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this player is terrible and is probably never folding but you could also have made a bigger turn bet. Vs a V like this 2x pot is fine on turn. Expecting to get called.

Why are they terrible- because they checked the nuts 2 you on the river.:unsure::geek:
Haha.....yeah, I hadn't spotted this. How is not betting there.....this is why poker is still very much alive.

He could not have played each street worse o_O
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Normally I would say, that its way to loose to call an EP open with Q5s. But this is an ante table, where the total ante is 3x the blinds, which definitely give more incentive to get involved. So I guess, this is ok although still a bit marginal.

Flop and turn
In theory these bets are to large, but if the opponent make a lot of calling mistakes, then why not? The only thing, I will say, is, that it looks like, you are simply pressing a "pot" button rather than thinking about, which size would be optimal. It is no limit hold´em, so overbetting is allowed. Or on the other side maybe 75% pot or 85% pot gets called more often than 100% pot for psycological reasons.

River
Whenever you are in a situation, where you dont want to bet the river for value on a card, thats a relative brick, then it usually means, you build the pot up to much on the earlier streets. KJ and J8 made a straight, but he really should not have those hands, although this time he did. But what do I know? Maybe you just have really good poker instincts and knew, you were beat.

Conclusion
The way, you frame this hand, is far to results oriented. Just because the opponent happened to get there on the river, does not mean, it would have been better for you, if he had folded earlier. If he had folded, then he would have played perfect, and we dont make money in poker, when our opponents play perfect.
 
John A

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Why are you in the hand at all though? If you're going to play here, 3-bet.

You played every street wrong honestly.

I have no idea what you're doing on the flop or turn. I'd recommend looking into bet sizing recommendations based on opponent range.

On the river, you can't depend on your opponent to bet here so you need to lead.
 
blueskies

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In a vacuum, I would have folded pre so this would not have happened.



But as played, we should be very happy villain called 2 pot bets with first nothing and then only a gutshot straight draw. Then we shd be happy he checked when he completed his lucky river and made the nuts.



Anyway, villain is clearly either a novice or an idiot so you play exploitatively against him. Can’t play the same way against him as you would against a decent player.
 
monkeytilter

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You did nothing "wrong" post flop here. You want calls from villain with his draws, you do not want him to fold.

Couple of things to consider are:

1. Should you be calling Q5s if you are not sure about how to play it post flop?
It's a marginal hand and has to be played well to make it a profitable. What was you plan if the button 3 bets? What was your plan when you miss the flop?
Learn some basic ranges then deviate when you feel your game is strong enough to adapt to specific player tendencies, but not before. Don't just call preflop without a good reason to do so.

2. You need to work out if this villain (and villains like him) will call more if you bet a bigger.
(Remember you are NOT trying to make them fold, you have a good value hand and want it to be paid)
 
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