$1.65 NL HE MTT: $1.65 PKO BB defense with J5s vs short stack

[mardi1987]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

1.65

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

I paused for a long time, I am interested in this hand in the analysis, I played it correctly. What do you say?

Winning Poker, Hold'em No Limit - 4,500/9,000 (900 ante) - 5 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: 39,370 (4 bb)
CO: 108,875 (12 bb)
BU: 346,740 (39 bb)
SB: 136,375 (15 bb)
BB (Hero): 243,640 (27 bb)

Pre-Flop: (18,000) Hero is BB with 5♣ J♣
UTG raises to 29,250, 3 players fold, Hero calls 20,250

Flop: (67,500) 5♥ T♦ 2♥ (2 players)
Hero bets 213,490 (all-in), UTG calls 9,220 (all-in)

Turn: (85,940) 5♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (85,940) Q♠ (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: 85,940

Showdown:
BB (Hero) shows 5♣ J♣ (three of a kind, Fives)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 17%, Flop: 18%, Turn: 95%, River: 100%)

UTG shows A♠ A♣ (two pair, Aces and Fives)
(Equity - Pre-Flop: 83%, Flop: 82%, Turn: 5%, River: 0%)

BB (Hero) wins 85,940

 

[fundiver199]

The opponent is so short, that he has essentially showed, also known as a "non all-in all-in". So the first thing to notice here is, that you are never calling and then folding later. This mean, its a pure math situation, where you are calling 30.370 to win 85940, which mean, you only need 35,3% equity. Nearly every hand has that, and this is also a PKO, where his bounty is worth an unknown amount of chips. Unknown because you did not tell us the starting stack or his bounty.

Without the bounty maybe you can fold the worst junk like 83o or 74o, but with the bounty it would be a huge mistake to fold any hand at all. It does not matter, that you are behind, when you get the correct odds to call. It also does not matter, that he happened to have pocket aces, because that is only a tiny little part of his range. And you managed to suck out on him, so well done

 

[mardi1987]

The opponent is so short, that he has essentially showed, also known as a "non all-in all-in". So the first thing to notice here is, that you are never calling and then folding later. This mean, its a pure math situation, where you are calling 30.370 to win 85940, which mean, you only need 35,3% equity. Nearly every hand has that, and this is also a PKO, where his bounty is worth an unknown amount of chips. Unknown because you did not tell us the starting stack or his bounty.

Without the bounty maybe you can fold the worst junk like 83o or 74o, but with the bounty it would be a huge mistake to fold any hand at all. It does not matter, that you are behind, when you get the correct odds to call. It also does not matter, that he happened to have pocket aces, because that is only a tiny little part of his range. And you managed to suck out on him, so well done

Thanks a lot, I followed your answers, I found interesting things that I didn't know

 

[sandy358]

The opponent is so short, that he has essentially showed, also known as a "non all-in all-in". So the first thing to notice here is, that you are never calling and then folding later. This mean, its a pure math situation, where you are calling 30.370 to win 85940, which mean, you only need 35,3% equity. Nearly every hand has that, and this is also a PKO, where his bounty is worth an unknown amount of chips. Unknown because you did not tell us the starting stack or his bounty.

Without the bounty maybe you can fold the worst junk like 83o or 74o, but with the bounty it would be a huge mistake to fold any hand at all. It does not matter, that you are behind, when you get the correct odds to call. It also does not matter, that he happened to have pocket aces, because that is only a tiny little part of his range. And you managed to suck out on him, so well done

IIRC against very short stack raises you either fold or reshove, calling is not really an option. Just make a shove and pretend that your opponent shoved when the action was on him. Especially considering the bounty, you should leave your opponent no room to just check all the streets and get out, and considering that they raised already, it is your best opportunity to make them shove.

I'm not sure though that J4s is a good hand for that, any ace high would do a much better job here, but 4BB big blind shove-calling ranges are quite wide, and also bounty heavily reduces the required equity needed for calling shoves of players you cover, so there is probably a huge chance that you can just shove any suited hand against the raise here in most cases (though depends on their bounty size relatively to their stack).

 

[mardi1987]

IIRC against very short stack raises you either fold or reshove, calling is not really an option. Just make a shove and pretend that your opponent shoved when the action was on him. Especially considering the bounty, you should leave your opponent no room to just check all the streets and get out, and considering that they raised already, it is your best opportunity to make them shove.

I'm not sure though that J4s is a good hand for that, any ace high would do a much better job here, but 4BB big blind shove-calling ranges are quite wide, and also bounty heavily reduces the required equity needed for calling shoves of players you cover, so there is probably a huge chance that you can just shove any suited hand against the raise here in most cases (though depends on their bounty size relatively to their stack).

J5s bro
I analyzed it and it was played correctly. Just that day I was reminded of the range and I remembered the J5s. Of course I was lucky, but many times I wasn't

I ended up taking first place and finding 15 mistakes in 170+ actions, although most of those mistakes were successful bluffs or nice folds

 

[sandy358]

J5s bro
I analyzed it and it was played correctly. Just that day I was reminded of the range and I remembered the J5s. Of course I was lucky, but many times I wasn't

I ended up taking first place and finding 15 mistakes in 170+ actions, although most of those mistakes were successful bluffs or nice folds

Oh, J5s, my bad, I'm kinda blind sometimes. Anyways, just checked the chipEV ranges too, 4BB and less you can basically shove any suited broadway from BB, 3BB and less - basically any two. I'm pretty sure that with the bounty considered, it is even looser, though i don't have access to the bounty ranges calculators.

Congratulations on the first place, by the way!

 

[fundiver199]

IIRC against very short stack raises you either fold or reshove, calling is not really an option.

It is ok also to run a stop-and-go, like OP did. If the opponent wants to put in 75% of his chips pre and then fold on the flop getting better than 8:1, thats a pretty good outcome for OP, even though he dont get to win the bounty.

 

[sandy358]

It is ok also to run a stop-and-go, like OP did. If the opponent wants to put in 75% of his chips pre and then fold on the flop getting better than 8:1, thats a pretty good outcome for OP, even though he dont get to win the bounty.

The problem with not collecting the bounty is that depending on the bounty size and the tournament stage, the bounty can worth much more than the opponent's bet and even stack (which is very often true for short stacks in PKOs), but it depends on the bounty, the opponent's stack size relatively to initial stack sizes and the bounty to buy-in percentage.

 

[fundiver199]

The problem with not collecting the bounty is that depending on the bounty size and the tournament stage, the bounty can worth much more than the opponent's bet and even stack.

Most likely its not though. The largest starting stack in PKOs on ACR Poker is 100.000 chips, or at least I have not seen anything larger. So lets assume, this was the starting stack, and since the opponent was so short, lets assume, he has the starting bounty. It would be very unusual for someone to only have 40% of the starting stack, if they had knocked out several players. So lets assume, his bounty is worth 25.000 chips.

If we run a stop-n-go, like Hero did, and the Villain actually fold, then we pick up a pot of 67.500 for an investment of 20.250, so our net chip gain is 47.250. If we get it all-in with the Villain either preflop or on the flop, then the pot will be 85.940 + 25.000 for the bounty = 110.940. But we only win this around 35% of the time with a hand as bad as J5s. And we have also invested 29.470. So our net win is only 110.940 x 0,35 - 29.470 = 9.359 chips.

So even with a large bounty worth 60% of his stack, its vastly more profitable, if he will fold to a stop-n-go. Which of course he should never do, when he already put in 75% of his chips. So in reality it does not matter much, if we get it in pre or run the stop-n-go. But if there is even a small chance, he will make a folding mistake, we should run the stop-n-go, especially when we have some junky hand like J5s.

 

[sandy358]

Most likely its not though. The largest starting stack in PKOs on ACR Poker is 100.000 chips, or at least I have not seen anything larger. So lets assume, this was the starting stack, and since the opponent was so short, lets assume, he has the starting bounty. It would be very unusual for someone to only have 40% of the starting stack, if they had knocked out several players. So lets assume, his bounty is worth 25.000 chips.

If we run a stop-n-go, like Hero did, and the Villain actually fold, then we pick up a pot of 67.500 for an investment of 20.250, so our net chip gain is 47.250. If we get it all-in with the Villain either preflop or on the flop, then the pot will be 85.940 + 25.000 for the bounty = 110.940. But we only win this around 35% of the time with a hand as bad as J5s. And we have also invested 29.470. So our net win is only 110.940 x 0,35 - 29.470 = 9.359 chips.

So even with a large bounty worth 60% of his stack, its vastly more profitable, if he will fold to a stop-n-go. Which of course he should never do, when he already put in 75% of his chips. So in reality it does not matter much, if we get it in pre or run the stop-n-go. But if there is even a small chance, he will make a folding mistake, we should run the stop-n-go, especially when we have some junky hand like J5s.

How does one calculate the bounty in chips correctly? I mostly based it on my PKO experience in specific WPT tournaments, where half of your buy-in goes to the bounty pool, and not really sure if it is me messing up the calculations or it is just this specific bounty pool percentage being too big.

I also kinda disagree with the calculation, because the first part of it assumes that in the case of stop-n-go the villain will fold on the flop 100% of the time, but I see what you were coming from and it technically does not affect the general conclusion that much from what I see, just inflates the number.

 

[fundiver199]

How does one calculate the bounty in chips correctly?

At the beginning of the tournament its simply the money rewarded by knocking someone out divided by the buyin and multiplied with the starting stack. So if its a traditional PKO, where half the price pool goes to bounties, and where half the bounty is paid out, then a starting bounty is worth 1/4 the starting stack. If its a traditional KO, where half the price pool goes to bounties, and the entire bounty is paid out, then a bounty is worth 1/2 the starting stack. As money is paid out in the form of bounties or regular prices, then chips are worth less, because there is less remaining money to content for, so the value of a bounty goes up. If half the price pool is paid out already, then a starting bounty in a PKO would be worth 1/2 a starting stack and so on and so forth.

I also kinda disagree with the calculation, because the first part of it assumes that in the case of stop-n-go the villain will fold on the flop 100% of the time

The real issue is, it assumes, the Villain will not do any hand selection, when they fold, which obviously they will. But even on the flop J5s will almost never be far enough ahead, that we would not rather have the Villain fold. Even if we have bottom pair as here, they will usually have 6 outs or around 25 equity. So if we any chance of inducing a folding mistake, this is better than letting them play perfect by calling preflop. In reality this whole discussion is very theoretical, since they will almost never fold.