$55 dollar NL HE MTT: Power path last step

[sitingman]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

55 dollar

Currency

$

Last step of the pokerstars power path. I have this value hand but worry the whole way that I am behind Villains calling range so I do not bet.

How would you play it?

PokerStars, $50 + $5 - Hold'em No Limit - 600/1,200 (120 ante) - 7 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat - https://www.cardschat.com/replayer?hand=725vConkw

UTG: 8,930 (7 bb)
MP: 31,504 (26 bb)
MP+1: 21,176 (18 bb)
CO: 40,088 (33 bb)
BU (Hero): 34,524 (29 bb)
SB: 9,640 (8 bb)
BB: 35,530 (30 bb)

Pre-Flop: (2,640) Hero is BTN with J♣ Q♠
2 players fold, MP+1 raises to 2,400, 1 fold, Hero calls 2,400, 1 fold, BB calls 1,200

Flop: (8,640) T♦ Q♥ 9♥ (3 players)
BB checks, MP+1 bets 2,400, Hero calls 2,400, BB folds

Turn: (13,440) Q♣ (2 players)
MP+1 bets 2,400, Hero calls 2,400

River: (18,240) A♥ (2 players)
MP+1 checks, Hero checks

 

[SpanRmonka]

I think this is fine not to go all out on the value betting.....there are lots of hands that beat you here, although you do block some of them.

 

[comeburras]

Tough spot. Flop call is standard—top pair, gutshot, backdoor flush blocker. Turn trips are great but villain's small sizing on both streets feels like a capped range. I like the river check, even though we block bluffs. AQ, KJ, or a slow-played KK/AA could still be there. I might consider turning it into a bluff if we thought villain folds Tx or weak Qx to a shove, but that's a stretch in a Power Path MTT.

 

[Poker Orifice]

What is the payout structure in this? This is a Satellite with a flat payout... no?

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
Typically I am not crazy about calling with a hand like this, or calling anything, when the original raiser is only sitting on 18BB. But you cant really 3-bet here with a bigger stack behind you, and your hand is not really strong enough either. So I guess, this is ok, but you could also simply fold.

Flop
You flopped top pair and an OESD, and this is 100% a call. Of course we are not folding, but if you raise, you get into a situation, where most worse hands fold, and most better hands continue, so raising does not really accomplish anything.

Turn
Now you have trips, and this actually matter, because it reduce the chance, he has you outkicked or flopped two pair with QT/Q9, and you beat AA, KK and T9 now. He bet the same size as on the flop, and this just scream weakness, so now my mindset has shifted to definitely having the best hand, and how can I get him to put the rest of his chips into this pot.

If you call, pot will be 18k, and he only has 14k left behind. There is a flushdraw on the board, and for that reason I think, the best play is to jam and make it a 2 street hand. Even if he is somehow slowplaying a straight, you have 10 outs now to a boat, so you are only in really bad shape, if he has AQ/KQ or a boat already. Which is very unlikely, since there is only one unseen Q left in the deck, and why would he bet so small, if he had AQ/KQ and just improved to trips on a wet board.

River
Now the flushdraw completed, and he checks again. I think, its quite unlikely, anything stronger than your hand play this way, although there is always some risk, the opponent is sandbagging something and trying to trap us. But all in all I think, its far more likely, he has a hand like AK/AJ/AT, that just made top pair but dont think, it can bet for value, or he could have a busted draw like 87 and decide to give up. So I think, I am jamming here for value trying to get hero called mainly by AX or maybe a hand like KK/JJ, which could also play like this.

 

[fundiver199]

What is the payout structure in this? This is a Satellite with a flat payout... no?

This actually matter. The above analysis is with the assumption, this is a normal MTT structure without some kind of extreme ICM. If there is extreme ICM, then I would 100% just fold preflop and not get involved.

 

[primrose]

(didn't look at fundiver's reply before posting, in case there's overlap)

Preflop
Would also flat. You may be behind but this hand is too good to fold, too weak to 3bet for value, and the wrong type of hand to 3bet as a bluff.

Flop
Would definitely also just call here; too strong to fold and raising is not on the menu if your opponent could easily have 2 pair or pair with gutshot, which both won't fold.

Turn
Here I think you're making a mistake by not considering the bet size. Repeat bets are weak. Your hand is now strong enough to raise for value, imo, and it's vulnerable so you don't want to slowplay. I think raising here is better than calling.

River
If you had raised the Turn, I think checking now would be reasonable. But as is, your opponent's line is weak, you have trips, you should value bet. I know the Flush came in, but still. If you do get raised, then just fold. But yeah, I think you should bet here. Not sure how much, he looks weak so probably on the smaller side.

Overall I think this is too passive. You can't be scared of value betting just because you could be behind. If you never value-bet the second best hand, then you don't value bet enough.

 

[fundiver199]

If you do get raised, then just fold.

Maybe you can get away with this in live poker, because people dont keep proper track of the pot size. But in online poker I dont like going for a bet-fold on the river, when there is 18k in the pot and only 14k left behind. So for me the only options on the river are check behind or jam, and I prefer the latter. I think, the opponent can easily have an ace as played and pay us off. If there was 25k or more behind, then I would bet small like 6-8k and fold to a raise.

 

[primrose]

Yeah, you're probably right. (Including about this being a valid live play; if you bet 6k on the River and opponent jams for 14k you need 22% to call, but against many players you probably have 10% or less.)

 

[sitingman]

Great responses cheers,

There was around 150 entrants, top 10 get paid. 1st 2nd and 3rd get a silver power pass worth $2500, places 4-10 get a bronze power path worth $109.

I busted around the 30 mark!

 

[sitingman]

I agree I should have bet but I was reading out loud all the hands that beat me and thought better of it!

But yea when I see their hand at showdown it was consistent with their bet sizings so reckon I made a mistake.

 

[SpanRmonka]

I agree I should have bet but I was reading out loud all the hands that beat me and thought better of it!

But yea when I see their hand at showdown it was consistent with their bet sizings so reckon I made a mistake.

What did they have?

 

[sitingman]

What did they have?

Kh Ks. Maybe I could have put out a small bet to target this kind of hand.

 

[fundiver199]

Kh Ks. Maybe I could have put out a small bet to target this kind of hand.

It makes a whole lot of sense, that KK would play like this. When top pair become trips on the turn, he slow down and make the same bet again, because now he might be beat, which in fact he was. But if you had jammed the turn, he would almost certainly have called, because people just hate folding a big pocket pair, and he also had a gutshot to a J.

On the river he probably fold to a jam though, since he now also lose to both AX and the flush, and he can no longer improve. But by jamming you would still give him a chance to put you on a bluff and dig out some big hero call, or call due to entitlement tilt. By checking back you let him off the hook completely and make yourself extremely easy to play against.

PokerStars streamer Lex Veldhaus often say, that its not up to us to find hands for them to call with. If they always fold, they always lose. And thats why we have to bet, when they have played the hand in a way, where they basically never has anything strong. And here I still think, its fair to say, that anything stronger than your trips with a J kicker would have gotten the chips in itself. Maybe not always, because people do sometimes trap, but at least 90% of the time.