$3.00 NL HE STT: 88 have to fold here, right?

[tzuriel]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

STT

Buy-in

3.00

Currency

$

Kind of interesting spot. If it was just the one shove, I probably call but with a shove and a reshove, you would expect big hands. I am slight behind their ranges, I think.

What do you think?


Middle of a 9man SNG ($3) with 7 left and blinds at 40/80

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem $3+$0.30 (80.00BB)
HERO (38.6BBs)
BTN (39BBs)
SB (27.6BBs) [VPIP: 34.6% | PFR: 18.7% | AGG: 28.1% | Hands: 191]
BB (29BBs)
UTG_1 (21.3BBs)
UTG (25.6BBs)
MP (44BBs) [VPIP: 24.4% | PFR: 19% | AGG: 40.3% | Hands: 169]

Dealt to Hero: 8♠ 8♥

UTG_1 Folds, UTG Folds, MP Raises To 2.6BBs, HERO Calls 2.5BBs, BTN Folds, SB Raises To 27.6BBs (allin), BB Folds, MP Raises To 44BBs (allin), HERO Folds

 

[tzuriel]

If you want to know what they had, let me know...

 

[gloemcesar]

In theory, the SB should be strong if he shove and when the other player reshove with a 24% VPIP looks strong too and you are in the middle of a bloodbath. You are surely behind, TT's and AK? What they had?

 

[fundiver199]

88 is a snap fold to this action, and it might even be a fold, if MP had gotten out of the way. As you say, MP has a very strong range here, because he is risking 25BB against SB and even more against you, and he is doing it without fold equity. And even the SB jamming range is probably pretty top side weigthed here. He has a wide gap between his VPIP and PFR, so if he had some kind of marginal hand like a small pair or a suited broadway, he would probably just call and see a flop out of position.

In top of that ICM is a major consideration here. If you call and win, you will have more than half the chips in play. But this still only gives you a little over 50% chance to win the tournament. If I simplify the situation by giving everyone the same stack, then everyone has an EV of 16,7% of the price pool. In a winner take all format, or what we call "chip EV mode", a player going all-in against two opponents and busting them will now have an EV of 50% of the price pool. So ignoring the blinds and antes, and the chips you put in already, you would need 33,4% equity to make a small profit.

However because its not winner takes all, and you can only win one of the prices, a player busing two other guys, when everyone have equal stacks, will only increase his equity to 37% of the price pool, and for that reason he actually need 45,1% equity to make a small profit. In your exact situation the numbers are slightly different, because you already put in 2,5BB, and you also cover especially SB, so he cant bust you. But you are still going to need an equity premium of something like 10-12% over the chip EV number to make this call.

So the widest, I would call here, is AKs and QQ+, and the calling range could even be as tight as KK+. This depends a little bit on, what kind of range we put them on. Like for instance if we think, SB would 3-bet small with KK and AA rather than jam, then we can call a little bit wider. To find the exact calling range, you run the ICM calculations first to determine what pot odds, you need, and then you plug in their assumed ranges in Equilab, which is also free software.

Poker ICM Calculator for final table deals

Easy-to-use online ICM calculator. Calculate ICM equity of player stacks for any given poker tournament payout structure.

www.icmizer.com

https://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-software-tools/equilab-holdem/

I think, its very educational to try to do this a few times manually to really understand the math, that lies behind a calling range. But you can also make a shortcut by using ICMizer, which gives one free calculation per day. However as I said already, I dont think, SB is playing a pure push-or-fold strategy, so if you use ICMizer, I would still want to change SBs range manually. And maybe try to play around with it a little to see, what that does to your calling range. But then you need to subscribe, since you are doing more than just one calculation.

 

[tzuriel]

In theory, the SB should be strong if he shove and when the other player reshove with a 24% VPIP looks strong too and you are in the middle of a bloodbath. You are surely behind, TT's and AK? What they had?

They both had AKs (one hearts and the other clubs). Here's the runout. I still like my fold. Ironically, one of these guys got heads up with me and won. He would have busted on this hand if I had called but I don't want to be results-oriented, as difficult as that is. Folding 88 in this spot is going to be +EV in the long run. Thanks for the excellent analysis fundiver, as usual!

Flop (75.6BBs): 8♦ 6♣ 4♥

Turn (75.6BBs): 8♦ 6♣ 4♥ J♥

River (75.6BBs): 8♦ 6♣ 4♥ J♥ 7♦

 

[Arnakk2424]

Auto fold
You are behind 99% of the time
even if you are coin flipping its a huge ICM mistake.
I guess you are asking because someone show 22 or 56s or something like that but its why SNG are still profitable.

(in my opinion)
calling range is AK, QQ, KK, AA
JJ, AQ is a fold
Can you send me the HH by private message, I will try to run my ICMizer to show you

 

[John A]

It's a std fold... There's really not much else to say.

 

[zipocool]

Yes, it’s a completely standard fold, you could make a small 3-bet and then fold, but how it’s played is also normal, if we go all in, we’ll have a coin flip with 88 at best, and most often we’ll be far behind

 

[Arnakk2424]

I ICMizer it
Note if you are not familiase with it. +0.20 and -0.20 is starting to be revelent to change your playstyle. More then 1.0 IS HUGE


With no settings ICMIZER think you only call with KK+
ICMIzer think SB range is 5.8% and Hijjack is 3.1%
I personally think they are wider then that
Below my personal opinion

Based on SB push of 20% ( I know he probably do not shove with AA,KK but its gonna take forever to calculate) and HiJ 7.5%
JJ is a call, AK is a fold

The third one is if both player are crazy with 20% and 30% and its still a fold

 

[fundiver199]

They both had AKs (one hearts and the other clubs). Here's the runout. I still like my fold.

If two opponents both have AK, then its profitable at least in chip EV to call with almost any hand, that has two free cards. Like when Mike Postle called with 65 offsuit in one of his most infamous cheating hands. But the problem is, if either opponent has a big pocket pair, you are totally screwed, and even more so factoring in ICM. And this is why, even QQ is a fold in the Nash equilibrium in this hand. Spend some time studying those ICMizer runs, someone else did, and try to take in, how tight you need to play in a situation like this. Calling with AK would be an enormous punt. By the way I made a slight mistake in my analysis. Its 7 players left not 6, but the principle and conclusion is still the same.