$5 NLHE Full Ring: Flopped set, Turn and River Pairs

N

nutshove

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I'm a recreational player, and I haven't played online in over a year. I'd appreciate over explanations on the actions you guys think were mistakes.
UTG: 138.5 BB
UTG+1: 75 BB
MP: 239 BB
MP+1: 95 BB
Hero (CO): 250 BB
BTN: 126 BB
SB: 230 BB
BB: 65 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

I feel I had the table image of bossing the table around. I was running pretty well and have had showdown value on all except 1 of my hands but I don't think the villain was at the table for that hand. I had overbet the pot twice in two recent hands(with two relatively strong but vulnerable hands), so it's possible the table thought I was trying to run them over. SB seemed to be trying to play solid, and the Button was a very loose passive player. The rest of the table was very tight and passive.

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9 9

UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 3 BB, fold, fold, fold

I have nearly no information on Villain as he's only been around for about 2 and a half orbits. He's played a third of his hands, and aggressively(VP 32/PR 23/3B 22/CB33/TB 75 22 hands), but I feel like it was him either getting some decent holdings or overextending on his positional advantages. Either way, a UTG raise still probably meant something from him. I considered 3betting here, but decided not to.

Flop: (7.5 BB, 2 players) J 9 T
UTG bets 2.5 BB, Hero raises to 9 BB, UTG calls 6.5 BB

His small sizing on this flop is the most confusing thing to me about the hand. This makes me feel there's a chance he has cards I can beat in the end, but we can get to that later. I raise as I don't want to slowplay a strong hand with that many draws. My plan was to have the turn decide whether I slow down or go again with a big bet.

Turn: (25.5 BB, 2 players) J
UTG bets 13.5 BB, Hero raises to 41 BB, UTG calls 27.5 BB

This is where I feel I may have made my first mistake but I'm not so sure. The UTG raise and CBet on the flop makes me feel like he's more likely to have AJ A10 KQ. He can have AA KK QQ sure, but he can also have some straight or flush draws since a play that is VERY common from what I've seen, is people betting small when they have strong draws to try and take control of the pot and maybe get it checked to the river if they don't hit on the turn.

River: (107.5 BB, 2 players) J
UTG bets 85.5 BB and is all-in, fold

One of the more annoying rivers I remember seeing. Now all pocket pairs better than mine beat me. A10, AJ, QJ, KJ. All cards he could easily have with his preflop action. He probably even has Q10 and K10 in his range.

What made this harder was that players at this level can EASILY commit to their straights such as KQ and try and take it all the way, I expect he should have shoved atleast by the turn if he had these holdings. The only legitimate bluffs I think he can have are diamonds that missed but that's such a punty play I don't want to play in a way that expects my opponents to make those sorts of egregious mistakes. Let me know if you guys think otherwise.

Hero mucks 9 9 (Full House, Jacks full of Nines)


UTG wins 102.5 BB

Since my hand is counterfeited and from my understanding(please let me know if I'm wrong) he has way more value than bluffs here, I tanked and folded. Was this too nitty? Did I miscount his combos of value to bluffs and should have called? I also expected someone to play back hard at me because of my own aggression. I would appreciate it if you guys could give me some analysis that goes deeper than "sucks that it happened, but just fold and move on", or "never fold a fullhouse".

Thanks in advance :D
 
Last edited:
Tigroslav

Tigroslav

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I dont see any mistakes here.
You played very well and just got unlucky.
The fold is good.
Only thing you didnt mention is JTs & offsuit too
could definately be in his range.
Im thinking KQ and JT are very common hands Villains with quoted stats
turn over at showdown.
 
N

nutshove

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I dont see any mistakes here.
You played very well and just got unlucky.
The fold is good.
Only thing you didnt mention is JTs & offsuit too
could definately be in his range.
Im thinking KQ and JT are very common hands Villains with quoted stats
turn over at showdown.


I strongly felt he did not have JT since his flop bet was only 1/3rd. Is it wrong to think this? I feel with a hand like top 2 pair, he would have bet bigger to protect his hand, so I pretty much eliminated that specific hand from his holdings.
 
Tigroslav

Tigroslav

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I strongly felt he did not have JT since his flop bet was only 1/3rd. Is it wrong to think this? I feel with a hand like top 2 pair, he would have bet bigger to protect his hand, so I pretty much eliminated that specific hand from his holdings.


You felt he would do the right thing but if he was doing only right things his stats wouldnt be so loose. Anyway weak players tend to trap or induce raises when they are strong and dont realize they could be outdrawn and should be betting to protect against draws.
 
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nutshove

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You felt he would do the right thing but if he was doing only right things his stats wouldnt be so loose. Anyway weak players tend to trap or induce raises when they are strong and dont realize they could be outdrawn and should be betting to protect against draws.

True. While the sample size is small, it's probably incorrect to eliminate J10 from his potential holdings just based on his flop sizing given his loose tendencies. Guess that means he has little bit more value in this spot than a previously thought. Looks like having to fold here while unlucky, looks more standard than anything.

I would appreciate other perspectives on this particular hand :p
 
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mktpppr

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P: fine.

F: weird cbet sizing of 33% pot. Villain should be checking his entire range on this horrible flop. Looks like he just can't help himself with an overpair/top pair-type hand: he's loose enough (32/23).

Solver probably says 75% raise frequency in this weird spot, but I don't like it in nl5. In-game I call vs a 32/23 guy.

T: as played, weird donk. Looks like QQ+ AJ KJ QJ. Yes, we must raise, sizing is fine.

R: worst card in the deck. We must fold.
 
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