Test your Small Stakes No Limit Hold 'Em Part 7

[dbitel]

SB ($77)
Hero ($190)
MP1 ($164)
MP2 ($11)
CO ($240)
Button ($38)


Preflop: Hero is BB with T

T

. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
3 folds, MP1 calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 1 fold, CO calls $1, Button calls $1, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($6, 6 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $6, MP1 and CO call, all else fold.


Turn: ($24, 3 players)
Hero Bets $21, MP1 calls, CO folds.


River: ($66, 2 players)
Hero bets $35, MP1 raises to $100, Hero folds

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

"...will you flop a set?", I guess? ^^

I know what I voted for is right, so I won't say what I voted for seeing as this is a completely black-and-white question.

 

[zebranky]

ditto

same goes here - I know I'm right, but anyone who voted for a different answer than I did PLEASE tell me where/when you play poker...

BTW - just to be clear - I'm assuming you mean the % chance of flopping a set OR better (ie, quads). The statistical chance of quads isn't great, but it's there.

 

[mrsnake3695]

This was fun. When do we find out the "answers"? And keep these coming it keeps you thinking and hearing others opinions is always good.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

When do we find out the "answers"?

Please don't post them for a few days!

 

[dbitel]

Please don't post them for a few days!

don't worry....I'll wait till at least saturday if not later. I think this is a really good test, and I'm yet to see any1 give all the answers what I think would be "corrrect"

 

[PokerPete]

Hmmmm...NOT any of the numbers I've seen as the percentage...I must have a "rounded version" stuck in my head...so I picked the closest one.

 

[mrsnake3695]

I'm sorry, I need to work on my patience, lol.

When you say correct answers are you including the last 2? I would be interested in seeing if someone got the first 5 "right" even if they missed on or both of the last 2.

 

[shinedown.45]

I'm not great with odds or percentages when it comes to poker but after doing some quick calculations in my head it seems I had picked the right one, according to the poll anyway.

 

[mischman]

Am i allowed to say what i voted? im not 100% sure im right

 

[Shoestringx]

I voted for 12% but I think the number is actually 11.8%

 

[joosebuck]

shit i voted 8% because i was thinking 1/8 which is actually 12%. disregard one 8% vote.

 

[mischman]

I voted 9% too although its 11.8(12) like shoe said. I voted that becuase maybe its a trick question? factor in the odds that maybe one of your outs have been mucked?

Flame CPT DONKO away!

 

[Vegas Cat]

12% pure guess on my part

The only question I hesitated to answer. I don't know the percentages of flopping sets

But I would assume it is more than 8% which seems so small since people will limp in with pockets hoping to flop a set, then I assume it happens enough times to make it worthwhile to call.

19% seems way too often and so does 15.

 

[Shoestringx]

I got a little bored just now and decided to revisit the actual calculation of flopping a set when you hold a pocket pair. I looked back through one of my old college math books which has a good section on probability and discovered that the actual number is 11.51%

What does this mean?

It means I'm a bit of a nerd with to much time on his hands.

 

[Debi]

I don't know what I am doing on this one lol.

 

[zebranky]

I got a little bored just now and decided to revisit the actual calculation of flopping a set when you hold a pocket pair. I looked back through one of my old college math books which has a good section on probability and discovered that the actual number is 11.51%

What does this mean?

It means I'm a bit of a nerd with to much time on his hands.

Here's the NERD numbers:
chance of set or better 11.75%
chance of set or Fullhouse 11.51%
chance of set only 10.78%
chance of fullhouse only (any) 0.98%
chance of FH (with 3 tens, board pair) 0.73%
chance of FH (with 2 tens, board trips) 0.25%
chance of quads 0.24%

Now who's a nerd (or at least someone with a verified odds table)?

 

[dbitel]

oops...when i said odds of flopping a set...i obv meant set or better

 

[Shoestringx]

Here's the NERD numbers:
chance of set or better 11.75%
chance of set or Fullhouse 11.51%
chance of set only 10.78%
chance of fullhouse only (any) 0.98%
chance of FH (with 3 tens, board pair) 0.73%
chance of FH (with 2 tens, board trips) 0.25%
chance of quads 0.24%

Now who's a nerd (or at least someone with a verified odds table)?

Those numbers are right, when I calculated mine I forget to include the chance of quads hitting so that 0.24% would bring me up to 11.75%.

Does anyone want to know how to do these calculations? I won't force the math at you but if anyone is interested I could do it.

 

[zebranky]

Those numbers are right, when I calculated mine I forget to include the chance of quads hitting so that 0.24% would bring me up to 11.75%.

Does anyone want to know how to do these calculations? I won't force the math at you but if anyone is interested I could do it.

hehe, you mean other than looking them up on any number of online poker charts?

 

[ChuckTs]

Those numbers are right, when I calculated mine I forget to include the chance of quads hitting so that 0.24% would bring me up to 11.75%.

Does anyone want to know how to do these calculations? I won't force the math at you but if anyone is interested I could do it.

I took a statistics and probability class back in HS but reefer + beer have long since erased any memories I might have held from it. Make a thread about it if you've got the time; I'm sure people will enjoy reading about the math behind the probabilities - I know I'd like to refresh those old dusty brain cells

 

[Shoestringx]

hehe, you mean other than looking them up on any number of online poker charts?

I took a statistics and probability class back in HS but reefer + beer have long since erased any memories I might have held from it. Make a thread about it if you've got the time; I'm sure people will enjoy reading about the math behind the probabilities - I know I'd like to refresh those old dusty brain cells

My problem with charts is that they tend to just give you the numbers. Which for most I guess is ok. Again this is probably just the nerd in me, but I feel I have a better understanding of things like this if I know how to do it myself. Plus charts will give you numbers for regularly occuring situations, whereas if you know how to do them you can get the numbers for any situation that might occur.

I think I will do a thread on it, instead of hijacking this one.

 

[zebranky]

My problem with charts is that they tend to just give you the numbers. Which for most I guess is ok. Again this is probably just the nerd in me, but I feel I have a better understanding of things like this if I know how to do it myself. Plus charts will give you numbers for regularly occuring situations, whereas if you know how to do them you can get the numbers for any situation that might occur.

I think I will do a thread on it, instead of hijacking this one.

good idea, I'll be looking for it - I can do all the basics of pott odds and flop/turn/river odds , but I was never that strong on calculating the mutiple odds (e.g. KQ suited -what the odds of a TP or better flop with no A to beat you)

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

12% but that's only because I looked.

 

[ChuckTs]

I can't even tell what the question is

Hero flopped a set in this hand. When you hold a pp, what percentage of the time will

What percent of the time will you flop a set when you hold a pocket pair?

Then it's ~%12 (or ~1/8). Remember that from some poker book or another.