Thoughts on this roulette strategy?

[ph_il]

So, I've never played roulette before and I plan on doing so on a cruise I'll be going on next year. Before that, I would like to go to a casino and play some roulette just to get a feel for it.

I've been thinking of a 'strategy', even though that's a silly thing because the game isn't beatable in the long run. However, I'm not looking to play long term roulette and am more interested in short term.

Lets say small bets are $1 and I plan to stop after 5 spins, regardless of results.

If it's a single 0 game:

-Bet $1 on all black numbers + $1 on 0.
-I cover 19/37 numbers.
-I have a 19/37 chance of winning $17 [$35 - $19 + $1]
-1 have a 18/37 chance of losing $19
-Overall expected value = (.51*17)+(.47*-19)/19 or -1.37% EV in the long term.

If it's a 0/00 game:

-Bet $1 on all black numbers + $1 on 0 and $1 on 00
-I cover 20/38 numbers.
-I have 20/38 chance of winning $16 [$35 + $20 +$1]
-I have a 18/38 chance of losing $20
-Overall expected value = (.53*16)+(.47*-20)/20 or -4.6%in the long term.

-Note: only betting $1 on either 0 or 00, but not both would give me an EV of -5.27%. Betting $1 on a split between 0/00 would give me an EV of -5.52%

So, I definitely hope that I can find some single 0 roulette tables as expected value is slightly better than a 0/00 table.

Again, I'm not planning on playing long term. Just a few short games while on the cruise or the random times we might go to a casino together. As mentioned earlier, I would give myself a max of 5 spins without ever increasing my bet size and then call it quits after that.

Of course, the best result be if I won 5/5 spins, but I would have to win 3/5 spins to show a little profit. Losing 5 spins would suck, but on a single 0 table w/ $1 min bets, that's only $95.

The slight edge I have covering more numbers over the house could easily play into my favor in the short term. Especially, if I have short term luck on my side, but-again-not something I'd want to do long term.

So, as a short term strategy, what are your opinions on this?

I'm curious because, if this is a good short term strategy, I want to figure out what versions of roulette the cruise offers, the min bet sizes, and how much I need to start saving for entertainment. And if it isn't, and please explain why, then I'll just probably stick with NLHE.

 

[TimovieMan]

Don't play American Roulette (0/00), play European Roulette (single 0). Less edge for the house.

There is no single strategy that'll make you win, so the safest bet is going to be "don't play".

There is little difference between putting 1$ on all 18 black numbers, and putting 18$ on "black".
Forget about the 0. Don't ever bet on that. Consider that the house's edge, and if they hit that, they won.

You could consider the Martingale system, but remember that it loses you money even faster due to the increase in bet sizing. Principle is: bet 1$ on red, if you lose bet 2$ on red, if you lose again bet 4$ on red, etc. Double up until you win. Once you win, you will have netted 1$. Rince and repeat.
The issue with this is hitting the table maximum or running out of funds to double up, but barring a series of run-bad, this should net you a bit.


The game with the lowest house edge will be bacarrat and betting on the house (that's why they only pay 95% instead of 100% because the house actually has an edge). If I was offered 100K for a single bet at a casino, I'd pick that. It's the only one with a chance over 50% of winning. You just don't fully double-up to compensate for it.

If they have a blackjack table that only uses a single deck of cards or fewer decks of cards, let you resplit as often as you want, let you double down on any first two cards, where the dealer stands on a soft 17, let you resplit aces, let you hit split aces, if you lose only your original bet vs a dealer blackjack, if blackjack pays 3-to-2 instead of 6-to-5, etc. then the house edge is lower if you play basic strategy.
With a single deck, the edge could even be in your favour (if you follow the perfect strategy that is). If not, learn basic strategy by heart, and learn card counting.
Blackjack is winnable in the long run. But it takes practice and skill.

Read up on everything gambling related here, at the Wizard of Odds.

 

[Chemist]

You could consider the Martingale system, but remember that it loses you money even faster due to the increase in bet sizing.
The issue with this is hitting the table maximum or running out of funds to double up, but barring a series of run-bad, this should net you a bit.

I never knew this had a name, I thought I had invented it myself, and wondered why nobody else used this foolproof method.

But when I did try to use it, though it started well, I was shocked at how much run bad existed and how quickly doubled up funds could become very large.
And after leaving with empty pockets never tried it again.
I still believe it is perfect In Theory, but theory and reality are two different things.

Do casinos actually allow it if they spot it being done?
When I (as I thought 'invented' the perfect method) I didn't think they would tolerate it for very long.

 

[TimovieMan]

Do Casinos actually allow it if they spot it being done?
When I (as I thought 'invented' the perfect method) I didn't think they would tolerate it for very long.

Of course they allow it. That's why they have table maximums (often at 100x the minimum).

That means if you strike out 6 times in a row, you can't fully double up any more.

Like I said: this method loses you money even faster. It only works in theory with unlimited bet amounts and unlimited funds. But your funds aren't going to be unlimited, and you will hit the table max pretty soon because missing a flip 6x in a row happens often.

You could expand it by 1 loss by going for breakeven (staying at 1$ after missing the first one and only then doubling up), or you could go sequential (trying to hit +1 with 1$ bets and betting 5$ once you hit -5, and 25$ once you hit -25, etc.) but you will hit the table max often as well.

The only way to beat the house at roulette is not to play.

 

[pcgnome]

There has never been a system that has ever been invented that will beat the roulette wheel. You just play for a brief amount of time, and hope to get lucky.
The longer that you play, the closer you're going to get to houses edge. In other words, the longer you play, the more money you're going to lose.
Roulette isn't a very good bet. I would look for the craps table TBO.

 

[Kenzie 96]

There has never been a system that has ever been invented that will beat the roulette wheel. You just play for a brief amount of time, and hope to get lucky.
The longer that you play, the closer you're going to get to houses edge. In other words, the longer you play, the more money you're going to lose.
Roulette isn't a very good bet. I would look for the craps table TBO.

Craps or 21. Roulette your just pissin your money away.

 

[ph_il]

Thanks for all the replies.

Like I said, this is just something I want to try while on my cruise. I'm not trying to come up with a system or anything like that, nor do I plan on playing for a very long time.

As mentioned, I only want to do 5 spins with given 'strategy' and that's it. At max, Im risking $100 for a little entertainment and hope to get lucky, but it's no big deal if I don't.

I would play poker, but I heard it's pretty bad (as far as structure) and I'm with my GF, so I doubt I'll have time to really sit and grind.

I'll look up craps as well.

 

[Kenzie 96]

Thanks for all the replies.

Like I said, this is just something I want to try while on my cruise. I'm not trying to come up with a system or anything like that, nor do I plan on playing for a very long time.

As mentioned, I only want to do 5 spins with given 'strategy' and that's it. At max, Im risking $100 for a little entertainment and hope to get lucky, but it's no big deal if I don't.

I would play poker, but I heard it's pretty bad (as far as structure) and I'm with my GF, so I doubt I'll have time to really sit and grind.

I'll look up craps as well.

I would think you would get along famously with craps. Enjoy the cruise, all in my family who have tried one really enjoyed themselves.