Overbetting the Pot on the River

[Poker_Mike]

In a cash game.....equal stacks....villain isolated preflop....he overbets the pot on the river.

Most times....

Is this value from a strong hand?

Or is it a bluff to steal the pot?

 

[zorro222_zorro222]

I think a good player will be polarized when they do that and have only their bottom and top of their ranges, but in the lower-mid stakes it's almost always a strong hand.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, there are far to many unknown variables here to give an answer. Does isolating mean raising (2-betting) over multible limps, or does it mean 3-betting, when there is at least one cold call? What were the positions, what were the stack sizes, what is the board texture, what was the action on previous streets, what are the stakes? All these tings matter, and its really much better to share an actual hand history instead of asking such a generic question.

 

[ironduke11]

whats your read onthe plyer themselves....are they given to bluffs...are they trying to scare you out of htepot...how many hand combinations are you beating.

 

[NKGB13]

In a cash game.....equal stacks....villain isolated preflop....he overbets the pot on the river.

Most times....

Is this value from a strong hand?

Or is it a bluff to steal the pot?

depends on how the hand happened, but when betting river it's either value or bluff right? and you want to make it expensive to your opponent in both situations.

Good reading on position, range, the other guy's profile counts for you to decide how to act.

 

[Poker_Mike]

All these things matter, and its really much better to share an actual hand history instead of asking such a generic question.

I understand your answer.

But, yes my question is very generic.

Personally I am a fan of the 80/20 rule. 80% of the time the player is doing this for value - they think they have you beat and are looking for more chips. 20% of the time they are bluffing to steal the pot.

But I could be wrong.

I assume you want more information to estimate the villain's range. But in my experience - any villain can have 2 pair.

whats your read onthe plyer themselves....are they given to bluffs...are they trying to scare you out of htepot...how many hand combinations are you beating.

This is a legitimate analysis.

depends on how the hand happened, but when betting river it's either value or bluff right?

Right.

Good reading on position, range, the other guy's profile counts for you to decide how to act.

This analysis would help. But several times I have been bluffed on the river with my AA. The villain was hoping I would just fold. They would only call on every street in position looking to connect strongly with the board and then hoping I would fold to a pot-sized bet on the river.

 

[fundiver199]

Personally I am a fan of the 80/20 rule. 80% of the time the player is doing this for value - they think they have you beat and are looking for more chips. 20% of the time they are bluffing to steal the pot.

Actually what you really want to know is, if a spot is underbluffed or overbluffed. Obviously if an overbet is 80% value, its underbluffed. But again I dont think, you can make such general statements. In online micro and low stakes games river overbets are probably underbluffed in general. But in high stakes games and some live games they might be overbluffed. Ultimately when we are deciding about weather or not to call with a bluff catcher, the river bet sizing is only one piece of the puzzle. We also want to look at all the other pieces like, if the Villains story makes sense, if there are busted draws, if we have shown weakness, if we have relevant blockers and so on and so forth.

 

[MatheusANF]

A polarized situation

 

[eetenor]

In a cash game.....equal stacks....villain isolated preflop....he overbets the pot on the river.

Most times....

Is this value from a strong hand?

Or is it a bluff to steal the pot?

The theory of over betting on rivers is that it is more often value than bluffs but it is of course dependent on the Villain type

 

[jsh169]

This is a villain dependent rule, the more the regular you know plays higher stakes, the more I would weight it towards bluffs him knowing your capped, the more it's a regular barely winning in the game, the more I would view it as more nuts then air.

 

[Margo17]

It's a polar range, either he has it all or nothing.

 

[hajaehyun]

Most of them seem to have strong hands in the fore~

 

[23maxim88]

Let the weak player think it’s a bluff to steal the pot, when in fact it’s a juicy value bet.

 

[valanddon]

I think an over bet on the river is mostly a bluff.

 

[Brigistul]

There are many variables and there is no clear rule in bluffing on the river!For example after a call on the opponent's river and when you are only two who have remained until the river , you can raise if you feel that the opponent does not have even a pair but you feel from the way the game went on the flop that you have a better kicker than him! That doesn't mean you bluff but you're a good player and he thought if he has a K he's better and you have an A and you win the pot!It is best to bluff rarely because that is not the solution to win!

 

[Poker_Mike]

I had the same thought as all these answers when I was in the situation.

I have decided that 80% of the time it is a value bet from my villain.

It's a polar range, either he has it all or nothing.

Most of them seem to have strong hands

Let the weak player think it’s a bluff to steal the pot, when in fact it’s a juicy value bet.

I think an over bet on the river is mostly a bluff.