Ten-high flush, paired board...

[Bombjack]

Seat 2: Grigio - $36.66
Seat 3: BaddestBogues - $25.93 (away from table)
Seat 4: Bombjack - $66.48
Seat 5: bonoklam - $7.43
Seat 6: RatAss - $45.25
Moving Button to seat 6
Grigio posts small blind ($0.25)
Bombjack posts big blind ($0.50)
Shuffling Deck
Dealing Cards
Dealing [ ] to Bombjack
bonoklam folds
RatAss calls $0.50
Grigio calls $0.50
Bombjack checks
Dealing Flop [ ]
Grigio checks
Bombjack checks
RatAss checks
Dealing Turn []
Grigio bets $1.50
Bombjack calls $1.50 <-- Open-ended straight / flush draw
RatAss folds
Dealing River []
Grigio bets $4
Bombjack...

What do you think... raise or just call it? If raise, how big?

 

[tenbob]

Call me conservitave. I flat call here, raising re-opens the betting, and you could be facing a big re-raise. You dont have the nut flush, the board is paired. Having said that, lots of times your against AJ/KJ type hands.

 

[Four Dogs]

Call me liberal, but I say raise. As TB said, you could re-open the betting and face a big re-raise. Good. You're probably up against trips or even 2 pair. Sure, a higher flush or a FH is possible, but what reasoning leads you to believe that's probable. Unless you smell a rat, this looks like a very garden variety bet. If he re-raises all-in, well... I'd still call.

 

[RiverNoHelp]

This seems like a rather innocous hand but I think after some thought of your opponents range of hands I would lean towards a raise here..It's two handed with the Sb completing the BB and you checking in the BB..Since it was folded around to the SB if he has any kind of paint such as a suited Ace-Rag I would be raising instead of just limping..So I would eliminate the two spades that include the ace..If he has King Queen spades then he would be raising your blind I believe also.. It is possible that he limped with King rag or Queen rag of spades but I think it's really unlikely..Especially since a Queen came on the flop he should be betting the flop in order to find out where he is in the hand.. The only likely scenario I see here that has you beat is if he limped with Queen 3, hit two pair on the flop, checked to trap you and then when the turn put two spades on the board he bet to eliminate the potential straight or flush draw (which is what you had!)..He bets the pot on the river when the board pairs also..I don't know I just think all of these scenarios are so unlikely that I lean towards raising his bet because you are more than likely ahead..I'm interested to see the final results..

 

[Dingodaddy23]

ez raise man, ur really gonna put him on a boat?

 

[blankoblanco]

But what raise is the opponent going to call if he can't beat that flush? Raise here screams that you have a flush or a full house. You shouldn't even get paid off by trip 3s if you make a significant raise here (you may, but you shouldn't). For that reason, I'd just call.

 

[t1riel]

I would call. If you win, great! If not, you won't lose that many chips if you raise and then called by a better hand.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

I raise the turn, as it's likely his bet is a 'I'm weak but might just have the best hand - let's see where I stand'. If it's not and he is very strong, at least you'll most likely be finding out sooner rather than later.

If checked to on the river, if I hit my draw a bet will look somewhat less suspect given that I've taken the initiative in the hand. If I miss my draw I can either check behind or bluff as I feel appropriate.

If he leads the river for a decent amount after my turn raise, I'm far more comfortable just calling than if I've just called his turn bet.

As played, it's a little awkward. It's a ragged board, unlikely to have hit opponent's hands strongly, but then again the pot was unraised preflop. If the board is something like KKQT4 and the same action occurs I'm more likely to call than on your board. I think I repop the river to $10-12 and hate my life if villain pushes - there are a lot of hands villain could hold that are weaker than yours and paying you off here, especially if villain is bad enough.

 

[Four Dogs]

But what raise is the opponent going to call if he can't beat that flush? Raise here screams that you have a flush or a full house. You shouldn't even get paid off by trip 3s if you make a significant raise here (you may, but you shouldn't). For that reason, I'd just call.

Oh if it were only that simple. Trips will pay-off, no prob. It's a back door flush.

 

[blankoblanco]

Oh if it were only that simple. Trips will pay-off, no prob. It's a back door flush.

True, but nobody made a bet until the turn, once there were already 2 spades on the board, so anybody could have 4 to a flush at this point. It's not as if he had to spend money on the flop so as to cause the villain to discount the flush as likely.

You're actually probably right about trips paying off most raises though. I still think it's too awkward a situation because I believe there are more hands that beat you than there are hands that you beat that will call a significant raise, and if they have one of the hands that beats you and pushes back at you, as Chris said, you will hate your life.

 

[Bombjack]

I think we can discount trips on the river... he's not betting the pot on the turn with bottom pair. A set maybe, but that would give him a full house which would beat me.

 

[OneMoreBust]

Call

What can you put this guy on. He limped, and didnt put any money in until the turn.

Did he have a low pair and decide it was good when no one bet the flop?

Was he slow playing his Q and trying to bet out the draws (with 3xbb?)

Did he get a draw on the turn and decide to take action hoping to take it down.


Now the river bet... why a nearly pot size bet?
1) Stealing
2) half stealing with a pair
3) Hit a flush or trips or FH


I don't really buy it. You have a solid hand, call.

Sooo


Im tired but my point of this is

Chance of him calling a raise with a losing hand < Chance of him folding or re-raising or calling with a better hand.

thats my take, it could happen, but in the long run unless you have a read, just call.

 

[Bombjack]

Dealing River []
Grigio bets $4
Bombjack raises to $12
Grigio raises to $34.66 (all-in)
Bombjack...

 

[Four Dogs]

Well he's obviously not worried about the flush, but your high card is above average. It'll cost you about $22 more to win what, about $40? 2:1 +/-. I'd pull the lever.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Bombjack...

...hates life and calls, of course.

 

[NineLions]

So the $4 was either him thinking that's all you might call, or a feeler to see if you had a hand.

But you raised back saying, yes I have something but you didn't push back saying you had a boat or a nut flush.

So now he pushes back saying he has a boat or nut flush, or he's way behind.

I'd fold.

 

[Bombjack]

So the $4 was either him thinking that's all you might call, or a feeler to see if you had a hand.

Betting the pot isn't a "feeler". More like either a "plz fold" bet or a value bet with a strong hand.

But you raised back saying, yes I have something but you didn't push back saying you had a boat or a nut flush.

Why would I push with a boat or nut flush and a stack of $65 into a pot of $7?

So now he pushes back saying he has a boat or nut flush, or he's way behind.

Very helpful - I'm either ahead or behind.

 

[OneMoreBust]

Fold!

See my previous post

 

[Bombjack]

It's $23 to call on a $50 pot, so I need to win 31% of the time to justify the call... but on reflection I think I am beaten here at least 70% of the time. I think the raise on the river is OK so long as I fold to the all-in.

Dealing River []
Grigio bets $4
Bombjack raises to $12
Grigio raises to $34.66 (all-in)
Bombjack calls $34.66
Grigio shows [ ]
Bombjack shows [ ]
Taking Rake of $2 from pot 1
Grigio has Full House, 3s over Jacks
Grigio wins $71.82 with: Full House, 3s over Jacks


Interesting to note though that [3s] was the only card in the deck that would make my hand and give him a stronger one... how unlucky is that?

 

[t1riel]

Ouch. It sucks being rivered especially when you have a made hand with it. It was a good call nonetheless. You can't be results oriented.

 

[OneMoreBust]

Ouch. It sucks being rivered especially when you have a made hand with it. It was a good call nonetheless. You can't be results oriented.

Rivered? He made his hand at the same time the other guy made their hand. See my post on why a call is better, and why a fold to the big re-raise was neccessary