$50 NLHE 6-max: Fold on the river?

[gustav197poker]

Hello everyone, how would you play this hand? It had 90 bb of stack, so the final decisions do not influence much in terms of cash.
We have no villain readings.

The hand: https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/524Jh3kJK

Greetings and thank you all for your responses.

 

[Sidetracked]

Being UTG at a 6 handed table, I would open bigger than 2x. I know it's all the rage to open smaller and smaller, but you're giving any other player 1.75:1 to call your open, which will widen any villain's range and make playing your JJ even more difficult out of position.

As played, on a really good day I could possibly find a fold on the river. The problem there is that many aggressive regs will play AK this way (particularly AKss) so you will still be ahead vs some of his hands.

Without specific reads that he is very aggro, I would try hard to fold that river.

 

[cs_rlewis]

Unlucky. I would 4bet mostly OOP as JJ is very hard to play post flop OOP.
As played calling preflop is okay.
You can also opt to check raise the flop at a low frequency, denying equity from villain.
As played I'm folding the river as pocket pairs make for bad bluff catchers in my opinion.
Also keep in mind you are holding a spade blocker, a bad card to have as it reduces villains bluffing combos on the turn, so it slightly increases villains value portion when they bet the turn.
Maybe if you held JJ without a spade I would consider a call on the river.

 

[loafaBREAD]

Hey gustav,

To be honest, the flop is a low disconnected board, so where I play the most typical cbet sizing is 1/3 for these textures. So Immediately I would be suspicious as this V looks like he is trying to set up an all-in by the river. AA, KK (QQ) and 99.

Maybe I'm too nitty, but I think I could find a river fold vs an unknown. Not that the Q changes anything, but if some player just sat down and looks slightly tight I could find a fold.

This is very exploitable, so if V's are often barrelling AK here, then don't worry so much about your call.

 

[gustav197poker]

Unlucky. I would 4bet mostly OOP as JJ is very hard to play post flop OOP.
As played calling preflop is okay.
You can also opt to check raise the flop at a low frequency, denying equity from villain.
As played I'm folding the river as pocket pairs make for bad bluff catchers in my opinion.
Also keep in mind you are holding a spade blocker, a bad card to have as it reduces villains bluffing combos on the turn, so it slightly increases villains value portion when they bet the turn.
Maybe if you held JJ without a spade I would consider a call on the river.

Thanks for the reply. In general it's good to unlock all relevant spades, to increase the bluffs in the V range.
In this particular hand, we are blocking the Js-Qs combo. Blocking this combo ends up sentencing the level of aggressiveness of the villain, because MP will not want to have the Ac either; Kc without proper protection. At the very least he want to have a decent kicker. That is why we must add another bluff combo in our range, which is Ks-Js.
Having this combo is a real nightmare for us, since it only increases fold equity. Because it is among our dominated bluffs. But in the villain's eyes, this is an incentive to bluff with the best hands, including AK.
Of course we are also blocking QJs, which tips the balance of rank V towards KQ + combos. But if the villain thinks he can knock our Ks-Js down, possibly the count starts from AQ+.
The important thing is that our range is balanced on the river. We double the value combos for each bluff. In fact our most important values ​​are: 2 JTs combos + 3 JQs combos + 1 combo of 4-4 that we have played slowly. While our most relevant bluffs are: 1 combo: Ks-Js; 1 combo: As-5s and 1 combo: 6s-7s.
While range V has:
RV values:
3c: QQ
2c: JTs
3c: 9-9
3c: 8-8
12c: AQ (s + o)
12c: KQ (s + o)
12c: AA + KK
Total values: 47 combos.

RV Bluffs:
6c: T-T
16c: AK (s + o)
1c: As-8s
Total bluffs: 23 combos

Proportion of bluffs, with respect to all combos:
23/70: 32.86%
Our fold equity: 3 bluff combos / 9 total combos from our river range: 33.33%
When we call on this river, the pot is $ 89.09 (net of rake) and we have to call $ 28.67, so we need 32.18% equity to have break even. We see that with a % of bluffs in the V range that is 32.86% we reach this requirement. And we are slightly on the positive side of our EV.

 

[gobarje]

I personally would open by 3x the BB ,with a good hand as JJ , I don't blame you because you probably thought by doing that you could lure in more people , The guy with the Qs 3x bet your inital raise so, I personally would have associated him with a pair, overpair and even AK, or something , the range is wide preflop, the flop is pretty good ,you got a backdoor straight door, but the initial 3x c-bets 50% of the pot

I would now think he might have a set of any sort maybe he had 99s preflop? And obv any sort of overpair
The turn the V again bets 50% of the pot and it didn't really change anything i would still associate him with a set or an overpair.

The river however comes a Q that was the first bad card for you one of the worst cards you could get and which perfectly fits with his range , and guess what he shoves. So at this point it was obv he was either bluffing or he had the nuts, and he most likely did have the nuts because, A lot of players never bluff the river. Ik it's hard but don't worry you'll learn.

 

[Figaroo2]

I think you played it fine, as you have pointed out its very close on the river.
Personally I would have folded the river here purely because you are UTG v MP which strenghtens the range of both players and makes the overpair more likely than if you were in later positions.
Once you call 2 barrels from UTG your overpair is pretty clear. I doubt he would fire again with a bluff. If he hadn't have hit his gin card I would have expected it to be checked it down.