$50 NLHE 6-max: Could you lay this down?

[xOneCoolHandx]

This is a Blitz game. So, no HUD stats in realtime but I had this player labeled as a TAG type player after playing a few hundred hands with him. Here is the hand:

https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/4q1s9g6G

I raise with AQo from UTG and villain 3 bets from the button and I make the call. Pot is 21.5 BBs.

Flop comes AJ6 with two clubs. There are a lot of hands he could have here: 99+, ATs+, AJo+, KQo, KJs and maybe QJs and JTs (I have seen these 3 bet a lot). He could also have some suited hands. So, I check here with top pair, strong kicker expecting villain to cbet with almost all of his range. He obliges by a bet of 13 BBs. I make the call. Pot is now 47.5 BBs

The turn comes Qs giving me top two. I am now beating almost the entire range of my opponent. AA, JJ and QQ are the only hands that have me beat and I am blocking AA and QQ and with a J on the board, there are only 6 combos of JJ. I check and villain bets 35.6 BBs. I call and the pot is now 118.7 BBs.

River is a 7h. Total brick. I check and opponent jams (he had me covered with 126 BBs so just over a full pot bet). There are lots of AK, AJ, AT and missed draws that would take this line and the only nut hands are AA, QQ and JJ. With only 1 combo of AA and QQ and 6 combos of JJ, I think I have a fairly easy call compared to the rest of the opponents range and make the call. He has JJ

Would you make the same call or would you lay this down?

 

[Tigroslav]

Lets see he 3bets from the button which screams JJ+ continues after you check the flop with perfect sizing which lets face it you gotta call.


Keeps barreling turn this time a bit large sizing
and I think I would belive him and fold.

I mean nothing else realy he could be representing cuz you got Ace blocker
and that means only thing youre beating AK is so rare its just not worth continuing.

Even TAGs get dealt premiums and precisely because of their aggro style are more likely to win coolers like this.
I would lean towards what combos your made hand is blocking rather than give too much weight to the combos the board is blocking.
Also I belive he would be slowing down or pot controling on the turn with the bottom part of his range that youre ahead of.
Even a premium KK would be afraid of the Ace on the flop.

 

[Jarud]

Makes me feel sick this hand,
I think i would call, we block aces and queens and villian is unlikely 3betting K10, jacks is the only value hand he is likely to show up with, and yeah he has Jack's.
Maybe you could argue a fold as we have the queen of clubs which makes it less likely he has a missed flush draw,
Really player dependent this one.

 

[xOneCoolHandx]

Lets see he 3bets from the button which screams JJ+ continues after you check the flop with perfect sizing which lets face it you gotta call.


Keeps barreling turn this time a bit large sizing
and I think I would belive him and fold.

I mean nothing else realy he could be representing cuz you got Ace blocker
and that means only thing youre beating AK is so rare its just not worth continuing.

Even TAGs get dealt premiums and precisely because of their aggro style are more likely to win coolers like this.
I would lean towards what combos your made hand is blocking rather than give too much weight to the combos the board is blocking.
Also I belive he would be slowing down or pot controling on the turn with the bottom part of his range that youre ahead of.
Even a premium KK would be afraid of the Ace on the flop.

I disagree, I know he will 3 bet from button with the range I gave him. I agree that he might slow down with KK, AT, KQ or KJ but not AK, AJ or QJ and maybe not even with TT. I also think that a flush draw would continue the aggression. I don't think you could narrow their range to just JJ even with the bet sizing.

 

[gustav197poker]

Your range has no sets, you don't represent pocket queens and you are capped with pocket kings, since most of the time you would play more aggressively preflop. So if your villain has a wider BTN range, you're unlocking the absolute nuts here.
Of course V could have made a big bluff on the river, but given the fact that you called the flop and then the turn, the odds of a triple barrel bluff really go down, when you've called big bet sizes.
It also seems like the river doesn't change much of the story, as that card is totally neutral in this texture, so a standard 50NL villain will know you're going to river call any size bet.
However, you have to consider that here it is very important not to block your opponent's bluff hands. When you have the Qc you are blocking semi bluff combos like QTcc; QJcc; AQcc; QKcc. Not many combinations, but all of them are essential to keep the villain's bluff range without interference.
Greetings.

 

[braun_kan]

His river shove is basically pot so from an MDF perspective you need to call down with half of your hands here, but villain is probably under bluffing so we don't need that many calls. Given your read that villain probably has bluffs here then I think AQ makes a good call since we heavily block his sets. He also may take this line with AJ.

If the roles were reversed then villain is almost certainly going broke here as well so just consider it a wash.

 

[mktpppr]

All fine.

As said above, problem is we don't have sets vs river jam. We are at the top of our range and we have to call a certain percentage of the time.

But I don't know if nl50 regs slow down with one pair hands on river and their bluff frequency in this spot.

I guess they do and under-bluff this spot.

We could make a massively exploitative fold, but I don't think we have the read to make it.