$5 NLHE 6-max: TT with a low flop

[GreenDaddy1]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 23/19/3

I don't really like how I played this hand. Interested in some thoughts.


Pacific Poker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 20.8 BB
SB: 169 BB
BB: 209.2 BB
Hero (UTG): 112.8 BB
MP: 151.6 BB
CO: 90.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♣ T♠

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, BTN calls 3 BB, SB calls 2.6 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) 5♣ 8♦ 2♦
SB checks, Hero bets 8.4 BB, fold, SB calls 8.4 BB

Turn: (26.8 BB, 2 players) 4♣
SB checks, Hero bets 13.8 BB, SB calls 13.8 BB

River: (54.4 BB, 2 players) T♦
SB checks, Hero bets 87.6 BB and is all-in,

Spoiler

SB calls 87.6 BB

SB shows 5♦ 5♠ (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 19%, Flop 92%, Turn 95%)
Hero shows T♣ T♠ (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 8%, Turn 5%)
Hero wins 216.2 BB

I throw out a big flop bet. Too big. The weaker player folds. This remaining villain looks like at least a semi decent tag who may even fold a flush draw here, especially if not to the nuts. I've looked at that board in the heat of the moment and summed it up as wet enough that some draws are calling, but by getting so big am I just making it likely I am getting calls from sets and not much else? I can see villain previously called in the blinds with A5s, K5s and QJo. I am definitely putting pockets in that calling range too though. Note also he has folded 7/11 to c bets that i've seen until this point over 200 hands. I think he has just folded out the majority of his range to this huge bet and continues with sets mostly. So I think maybe half pot here would have been enough, I got carried away.

Anyway, he makes the call and on that turn I felt like I need to continue this line if I am targeting draws so I bet again, but size down this time to just over half pot. I'm feeling already that I might be setting myself up for a tough river spot here. Not especially happy when he calls because I'm asking myself is this possibly decent TAG really calling big bets flop and turn with just a draw getting pretty bad odds?

The river is a real clanger on first glance, but then as I think it starts to look good. The flush draw completes, making my set meaningless against a lot of the hands I've been targeting.... but I am now good against sets of 5s, 2s and 8s, and I think given how much pressure I put on those are definitely more likely to have got to the river than a draw, if this player is as decent as I think they are given their stats. So, feeling like I've got very, very lucky here and that I probably am winning set over set often I just jam.

I logged on tonight intending to be more aggressive as I think I've been missing a bit of value and being too passive at times. I think a better line here would have been to bet smaller to keep more draws in, rather than just value owning myself when villain has something and folding out any draws that would have made it to the river other times.

 

[gustav197poker]

Seems like an ok line to me when you're sometimes thinking of defending against a massive attack on the turn. Otherwise you'll get a lot of calls there, mainly due to the fact that you slowed down.
On the river the game becomes more automatic. And you will get many folds with a smaller size. With overbet you can represent a more polarized range from any position. Obviously your bluffing capacity is reduced when you are in an early position. And in this case the villain shouldn't have 55 in his range, much less with the small diamond. This hand is well played in my opinion and is an exploitative style of play against a villain who might call you with many dominated hands for this board.
Greetings.

 

[Tigroslav]

Pretty much summed it up well your self.
Agree with your analysis and key point that you made him fold out most of his draws with a big flop bet although i think 6,5-7 bb would be a better sizing leaving you more flexible and stil accomplishing that.

 

[Endwarfin]

Its also worth noting that Villain never decided to check raise you.

You say you've played about 200 hands with him, his check/call check/call check/call line here after flopping a set, combined with his fold to c-bet should scream one of 2 things.

1) He is an extremely tight passive player, and you should put him on strong value when he calls

2) He thinks you over bet your hands.

Flop and turn are fine, I think my biggest question is the river jam on your part.

For one reason or another villain thinks he can trap you without ever being aggressive, and called the overbet when the flush came in.

The good thing about your jam here is that it looks like a bluff or a flush, the bad thing about your jam is you effectively are turning a made hand into a bluff.
Essentially what you are doing is merging your value range on the river, and this leads to higher variance poker.


You are only going to get called by people bluff catching or who have a flush. This is why merging sets into our bluffs can work well, but it can also lead to disaster.

And the biggest reason why - I don't need to worry about my calling odds to draw, if you are going to put all the chips in anyways when I get there.

All AdXd have ~50% equity on the flop
The 4 of clubs barely helps your equity against AX of diamonds but it completes straights, adds a club draw, and improves alot of AX to a gutshot at worst.

When the 10 of diamonds gets their on the river, sets are near the bottom of a 1.5x river jam for value.

Honestly im surprised villain called the river bet.

What I think happened here, is villain knows you overbet rivers, your bet is soooooo much more often a bluff here then a bet for value, but the cool thing is, you bluffed with better than his bluff catcher.

 

[mktpppr]

P: fine.

F: fine, go for max value and protection multi-way.

T: bet bigger to 75-100% pot, turn could be worse, but we're not thrilled either.

R: as played, I tank-check back, because no sizing works for me.

Jamming is too risky, because as played we could be isolating ourselves vs better only.

Betting smaller, eg 50-75% pot, opens us up to check/jam from a villain who is capable (23/19) of doing it as a bluff.

We must exploit our position to avoid marginal situations: you have a tendency to turn value hands into bluffs or semi-bluffs.

 

[fundiver199]

I think, the line is fine, but the flop bet and especially the river bet is very large. On the river you got very lucky, that he had one of the few possible hands, that might pay off an overbet, and which you still beat. But its kind of surpricing, that he even had a set, because often that would have been check-raised on either flop or turn. So personally I would go for something like half pot here, and then make a decision, if he check-jam. I feel, that the overbet jam will usually only get snapped off by flushes and make everything else fold, and that this outcome is quite a bit of an outlier.

 

[John A]

You played this hand backwards, should have been smaller flop bet, larger turn bet if you're thinking about your whole range in a spot like this. you'll want weak pairs to fold on the turn vs the bluffing part of your range.

The river isn't good imho vs his range and being over 110bbs. His range is mostly mid pairs, sets, and flushes. and maybe a few straights. Tight players sometimes play dumb ranges out of the SB.

Against this kind of player, if you're looking to get value from his whole range the entire time, knowing that he's likely not going to bluff you, you're much better off betting around 2/3rd river. This also ensures you can fold if he x/jams on you because he's never bluffing and never value raising worse.

 

[hyfl]

Flop was not that dry. On low stakes tables are plenty of players who like to play with connectors/suited cards/suited connectors and are not willing to fold with a straight/color draw. This why in these kind of situations I like to bet higher and I think your bet was a right size.

 

[Subel007]

Situations like that killing me : ((

 

[Ducky7]

Flop bet looks a little too big, want to go bigger for sure in general but think 66-75% is what we want to be aiming for but I don't hate the sizing

Turn is where you need to size up more and by taking this line you allow yourself abit more of a natural jam size OTR so it's not as terrifying, with top set on this specific river (and in general) you are going to be betting small or checking with a large part of your range here and since we are blocking TPs this specific hand may want to go into the category.

As played villain should not have too many sets here so it's very hard to get called in general on this river so prefer this sizing with your flushes and bluffs. Then hands like AA/KK/TT etc can bet 1/3 here trying to get some value from some 1p and +2p hands which will struggle to call a jam