$5 NLHE 6-max: Set vs turn jam by nit

[GreenDaddy1]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 8/10/1

5nl SNAP. 171 hands on villain. 8/10/1. 3 Bet only 3 times in 65 opportunities.



Pacific Poker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 202.6 BB
SB: 88.4 BB
BB: 36.8 BB
UTG: 116.8 BB
Hero (MP): 200.2 BB
CO: 65.8 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 8♦ 8♥

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB raises to 6 BB, fold, Hero calls 3 BB

Flop: (13 BB, 2 players) 8♠ 6♦ 7♣
SB bets 6.4 BB, Hero raises to 19.2 BB, SB calls 12.8 BB

Turn: (51.4 BB, 2 players) 9♠
SB bets 63.2 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 63.2 BB

Spoiler

River: (177.8 BB, 2 players) 6♠

SB shows T♣ J♦ (Straight, Jack High)
(Pre 47%, Flop 15%, Turn 77%)
Hero shows 8♦ 8♥ (Full House, Eights full of Sixes)
(Pre 53%, Flop 85%, Turn 23%)
Hero wins 167.4 BB

The head scratcher for me here is whether he is doing this with an overpair and even some AK, which some will do in this pool, or if he is only jamming turn like this with exactly TX, in which case by the pure maths of the spot I dont think I am good to call with 20ish% equity vs 36% pot odds.

So my question is for spots like this: Do I put a massive nit villain (despite being a bad player in other ways) on exactly what he is representing and fold due to pot odds? I find it hard to rule out a stubborn shove with AA or KK on the turn, and the more 3 bet type hands I put in that he does this type of turn shove because he just cant let go of his overpair, the more I am inclined to call it off, because I can actually have a ton of equity here vs a basic tight/nitty 3 bet range. This is clearly not a good player, regardless of being a massive nit, so until I have proof he only ever makes this play with the nuts should I just be gritting my teeth and calling?

 

[Jarud]

Nits don't usually shove on turns on wet 4 to the straight boards unless they have something really premium imo.
His 3bet of J10 off is odd and his sizing is also strange.
His sizing may be indicative of a weak holding, what were the other hands he 3bet and what were the sizings?

 

[Redman1902]

Funny thing that this is a hand where villain got out of line preflop. You wouldn't expect JTo in his 3b range given his stats.

Aside from this i think calling is totally fine because he still can have have some jacks in his range and some draws which turn odds in your favor. Or anothet way to think about it: how many Tx/99 would you expect in a nits 3b preflop range compared to other combinations that would go the same way postflop.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Yeah exactly. The perceived range suggests very few tens and yet the turn shove from a nit screams 'I've got the nuts'. Maybe this is just never a comfortable spot

 

[mktpppr]

P: fine. Weird OOP min-3bet.

F: just call. Solver probably says 50% mix, but for nl5 I call in-game.

T: worst card in the deck. I go into the Matrix to eventually fold, running my time-bank down to zero.

Massively weird donk jam: the 9 helped him, so I'm guessing a weirdly played TT 99. He's not doing this with an overpair or AK.

Maybe he's scared of another spade on the river.

 

[gustav197poker]

* 8/10/1
* 5NL SNAP. 171
* 3 Bet only 3 times in 65 opportunities.
I don't see anyone with these stats as likely to bluff with hands like AA or KK. Although it sounds pretty nitty I think this is a fold most of the time. Regardless of stats, the overbet call is fine.
Greetings.