$5 NLHE 6-max: Can bottom set ever consider a fold?

[GreenDaddy1]

Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 20/16/2

Cant see myself folding here, but should I ever consider it at 5nl? The board is not massively wet, which really trims down what villain is getting this aggressive with to sets, with some possible draws and maybe a rare AT which hit two pair on the turn. The tag stats don't look right for someone getting carried away with a pair.

Of course the river shove can sometimes be a bluff after missing a draw... but against this villain, I think probably not.

There are a lot of 5nl villains to which this is a snap call on river. But are there some tighter tags and nits I do need to consider a lay down against in spots like this? Or is it just a shrug and a cooler, and move on to the next hand?



Pacific Poker - $0.05 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): 103 BB
SB: 100 BB
BB: 39 BB
UTG: 208.6 BB
MP: 137.6 BB
CO: 119.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 5♠ 5♣

fold, MP raises to 2.4 BB, fold, Hero calls 2.4 BB, SB calls 2 BB, fold

Flop: (8.2 BB, 3 players) 8♥ T♦ 5♥
SB checks, MP checks, Hero bets 5.6 BB, fold, MP calls 5.6 BB

Turn: (19.4 BB, 2 players) A♦
MP checks, Hero bets 14.4 BB, MP raises to 34 BB, Hero calls 19.6 BB

River: (87.4 BB, 2 players) 4♣
MP bets 95.6 BB and is all-in, Hero calls 61 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows 5♠ 5♣ (Three of a Kind, Fives)
(Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
MP shows T♣ T♥ (Three of a Kind, Tens)
(Pre 81%, Flop 96%, Turn 98%)
MP wins 197.2 BB

 

[gustav197poker]

Yes. Technically opener has a much stronger range than yours. The main reason is his opening position. In fact the min raise on the turn should be a decision between pushing your stack and folding the hand. The call seems the least profitable option in the long run.
On the other hand, the question arises: If the V checks on the flop, how can he represent a strong range in a multiway pot? The simplest answer is that this player is having a passive game. Possibly hoping to induce bets of all kinds: semi bluffs, top pairs, and even 2 pairs. That is, the representation of V is that of a very weak range. And trying to bet is possibly the +EV game here.
If we go into stats, his range is quite short in this sequence and he will rarely bluff the river with an overbet.
In particular it seems far away off to try this line with AJ+ when your calling range preflop could benefit you from ghosts hands that you could hit postflop.
Although this could be very exploitable, if you have decided to call on the turn, there is still a chance to fold on the river against a perceived (by playing position) tighter range.
Greetings.

 

[Endwarfin]

The 2.4x check raise on the turn is the key point in this hand I think.

Villain is doing this thinking you can call with an Ace and not trying to scare you off. That should ring some alarm bells.

He either is doing this with strong draws (Straight + Flush Draws, AhTh) or Sets

When he chooses to check raise the turn and not the flop, I think it indicates he is targeting holdings with an Ace and his worst hand here should be Ah10x.

On the river the only draw that gets there is the 6h7h.
(Which I personally would have raised on the flop)

So the question is: is the all in shove on the river a bluff or value?

Generally there are a lot more missed draws then value in villains range. I don't play a lot of 5nl, but this doesn't look like a value bet by villain. You called a check raise, you would probably bet river when most of the draws missed, and realistically when he over bets pot like this there are only 4 hands that can call him when they get here.

AA, 88, 55, 67, A10 *(Which from his perspective should be basically never be here and not worth targeting)


To me Villains line looks bluffy, I would have totally called in your spot, and noted he will lead and overbet river with 3rd nuts for value.

I think he got lucky you had near the top of your range here.

Villains shove is kind of a disaster play IMO as he loses all value from your bluffs and can only get a call half the time by worse.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I am not the biggest fan of setming in general, but in a 6-max game, when we have BTN and are against a full stacked opponent, I think, this call is totally fine and standard. We can do some other things than just setming as well like float favourable flops and then stab the turn, if he check to us.

Flop
Preflop raiser check, and of course we are going to bet our set for value and equity denial. Sizing looks totally fine as well.

Turn
The ace is actually a good card for you, because it might have hit him making it easier to get paid. So totally on board with betting again for value. Now he check-raise, and I am never folding here in a million years. Yes he could have a higher set, but I dont think, flopped sets or pocket aces check-call the flop very often in a multiway pot, so I actually discount sets quite a bit. At the same time there are a million different draws, he can have on this board, or he could have hit top two with AT and be raising it for value. Because the board is so wet, I dont really want to see a river, so for me this is just an easy jam and then let him make a decision.

River
Only 76 got there, and that hand is at most represented by 76s, since the opponent is a TAG, so at most we now lose to another 4 combos. As played still not ever folding this hand.

Results
So he had TT for the flopped top set, and off all the sets, thats the only one, where his line make some sense, because he had board lock on the flop, and then on the turn he hoped, that you hit the ace, and the board also got wetter, so he decided to spring the trap. However TT is only 3 combos, and if this is realistically the only hand, that beat you and play this way, then it was just a cooler, and folding would have been a massive mistake in the long run.

Even on the river there were a ton of busted draws, he could be bluffing with, and if he only has 3 value combos, that beat you, he only need to have 2 bluff combos for you to make a profitable call. Plus he could have AT, which is 9 combos, although to be fair AT would probably have bet the flop. But still we cant fold, because we think, we can narrow our opponent down to just one particular hand, of which only 3 combos exist. So in a spot like this it just sucks to be us, and this is why, we play with a bankroll.

 

[zuker]

No fold in this situation. Just extracting value from big pairs, Ax and draws. Only few hands better.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Thanks guys. Pretty much as I thought then, sucks to be us but just accept it and move on to next hand

 

[fundiver199]

Thanks guys. Pretty much as I thought then, sucks to be us but just accept it and move on to next hand

Nathan Villiams AKA Blackrain79 has a way to explain coolers, which I really like. He talk about the proverbial shoe, which is always going to be on the other foot sooner or later. You will flop top set, when he flop bottom set, just as often as the opposite. So all, you need to ask yourself, is, does he ever get away here without losing his whole stack? And for 99% of players the answer is no. They dont get away either. And those 1%, who do, often fold the best hand, or they check back the best hand on the river, when they could bet for value. So they give up a lot of EV elsewhere. And therefore this is not a spot, you need to worry about, because in the long run you neither win or lose anything (apart from the rake).

 

[Clutchdenier]

Before checking spoilers:

I think this is a good line to take and when villain raises the almost pot bet on the turn, we can deduce the villain is playing his range semi-correctly at least, meaning he has all the flush draw and straight draw combos and of course, 88,1010.

the bet sizing on the turn gives a lot of info that opponent does not have a weak holding or at least has good equity to have the winning hand on the river. Villain actually plays this well and this should probably be a fold since its 5nl on the river shove - because the stakes are more straightforward and your less likely to see bluffs on a river jam - he could also have AA which is completely plausible with the way it played - though you would probably expect it a little less due to expecting villain to c/r on a flop like that but its 5nl and opponent could have probably deduced hes ahead but on a semi-dangerous board. The c/r on the turn can be perceived as him trying to trap an ace - so hes already got 2pair or a semi-bluff

Although hero is beating most of villains range, heros range is a lot weaker here on average so opponent would also be expecting low aces and 10x most of the time

If opponent has 88, 10,10 or AA hero is being coolered and there is a small percentage of the time this should be folded, however taking into account how much of the range is beaten i think a call here is reasonable though at 5nl you are probably rarely seeing a bluff here

 

[mktpppr]

P: fine.

F: fine, bet slightly bigger to 75-100% pot, but I'm nitpicking.

T: 2barrel is fine. Weird check/raise sizing (2.36x), could mean only nuts or near-nuts, because villain's normal raise sizing is a jam.

Villain's play is inconsistent from flop to turn, so we mustn't 3bet jam often in this weird spot.

We can't just fold either, so call is best option.

Looks like villain was "trapping" on a drawy multi-way flop (lol), and now, with second flush draw threat, wants to get the money in, but can't even do that properly. Ace is less relevant than it being a diamond.

R: villain's jam is annoying because he's taken a weird line, which beats us often.

Villain isn't a good player (goofy sizings), but I tank-call, we need a reliable read to fold this spot, and we don't have it.

 

[lanelosee100]

Set over set is a bad beat and shouldn't be over analyzed. Win here most the time and move on when you don't.

 

[beginnerbot]

Fold pre because of the high rake. At 5nl, we should play 3b or fold except from the BB

 

[fundiver199]

Set over set is a bad beat and shouldn't be over analyzed. Win here most the time and move on when you don't.

Exactly. Typically we should be very happy about getting it in with a set for around 100BB on a board, where no flush or straight is possible, and especially if many draws are possible, as in this hand. As I said already, I am just shipping the turn here, because I think, some sort of combo-draw is much more represented in the opponents range than higher sets. Yes its 5NL, but that does not mean, people are only raising sets on a wet board.

 

[Sidetracked]

Being on the wrong end of a set over set situation is really depressing, but I don't think you should have been folding that hand at any point.

You got unlucky, but I think you played the hand fine.

 

[Tigroslav]

Folding bottom set facing too much action from an MP opener is certainly the right thing to do against decent skill oponents.