$200 NLHE Full Ring: Turn Decision

[mikeisthebestever]

Sitting about 800 effective with 2 villains at a 200 cap 1/2 game

Context for the game ; Its really late and the casino broke 3 tables to get one full table with everyone sitting VERY deep for this game. Almost everyone was 400bb+


UTG open to 12, MP calls, Hero on button 3b to 50 with , both call.


Flop [150] , Checks to hero, bets 120

I sized pretty large here because I dont see these players folding draws or top pairs very often for one bet. BOTH villains call.

Turn [390]

I view this as a REALLY bad card for me, because I wont get called by random Qx anymore and random Jx makes a straight. To my suprise UTG leads for 200 AND MP calls.

So the pot is about 800+/- and I have about 700+/- facing a 200 bet.

My intial thoughts were that one of these guys has a straight and one has a flush draw. What do you guys think the correct play is here?

Spoiler

I decide I am getting the right price to see a river, but I dont think I will get paid off on potentially spade/board pairing runouts. So I ship it. Both Call. River. I scoop 2400+/-.
UTG shows and MP shows

 

[Gildog89]

This is such a hard spot. I haven't looked at the hand results.

The pot should be $510 going to the turn I think, so you're never folding your top set for $200 and the pot now at $910.


I would say you're right that one of them (at least) has a straight. The other could have a set, a flush draw or maybe 2 pair. That said, you likely need the board to pair. I think I like calling here and seeing a river. If the board pairs, it will be hard for straights or flushes to fold to your jam. They might even lead into you still. If the river bricks or brings a flush, you can get away from it, even though it's hard to fold a set.

 

[Tigroslav]

Shipping it definately huge -EV leak.
Fold is correct
and call slightly -EV
Given that its a CAPed game your implied odds are bad and made even worse
by the board texture since you wont get any calls if you hit.

Sorry to say but this was a terrible play got lucky scenario.

 

[mikeisthebestever]

Shipping it definately huge -EV leak.
Fold is correct
and call slightly -EV
Given that its a CAPed game your implied odds are bad and made even worse
by the board texture since you wont get any calls if you hit.

Sorry to say but this was a terrible play got lucky scenario.

Sure, if you can see the hole cards before you make a decision.

 

[Tigroslav]

No the way it is in normal poker.
Dont be angry Im giving you honest opinion.

 

[Tigroslav]

Sure, if you can see the hole cards before you make a decision.

Youre getting 3:1 pot odds with your jam decision and youre only winning this pot
1 outta 8 times.
No need to see the card to know thats a very very bad deal.

 

[mikeisthebestever]

This is such a hard spot. I haven't looked at the hand results.

The pot should be $510 going to the turn I think, so you're never folding your top set for $200 and the pot now at $910.


I would say you're right that one of them (at least) has a straight. The other could have a set, a flush draw or maybe 2 pair. That said, you likely need the board to pair. I think I like calling here and seeing a river. If the board pairs, it will be hard for straights or flushes to fold to your jam. They might even lead into you still. If the river bricks or brings a flush, you can get away from it, even though it's hard to fold a set.

Yeah I took awhile with the decision , felt like an hour, probably only like 2 minutes. I think calling was the right play and evaluating the river. In the moment I was concerned that if I made it at the end I would not get paid off. Decided on a shove after convincing myself there shouldnt be "that many jacks" in a 3-bet pot. I was wrong, they had ALL the jacks lmao.

 

[mikeisthebestever]

Youre getting 3:1 pot odds with your jam decision and youre only winning this pot
1 outta 8 times.
No need to see the card to know thats a very very bad deal.

The idea that you know "1 outta 8 times." presumes you know the opponents hands. I am better than 70% against their actual ranges.

 

[Tigroslav]

Yeah I took awhile with the decision , felt like an hour, probably only like 2 minutes. I think calling was the right play and evaluating the river. In the moment I was concerned that if I made it at the end I would not get paid off. Decided on a shove after convincing myself there shouldnt be "that many jacks" in a 3-bet pot. I was wrong, they had ALL the jacks lmao.

Correct calling was much better hoping to pair the board or hit quads.
Fold was still better but not by much.

Youre losing the 700 after about 20 occurances of this spot with the call/re-evaluate river line
Folding saves your money.
If the two players in the hand are likely to make a bad river move this 20 might get streched longer.

So if youre not worried about making the best possible longterm move or think they might sometimes be bluffing or paying off river and never have a flopped straight either or are worried to be seen as folding too much and want to make a statement call
then calling is fine.

 

[Tigroslav]

The idea that you know "1 outta 8 times." presumes you know the opponents hands. I am better than 70% against their actual ranges.

but theres two ranges against you so a higher chance of connecting be it on the flopped straight or river one and a flush. they most definately are rarely holding air.
Heads up it would be completely better for you.

Personaly I thought when you said you sized the flop bet largely that it was actualy a small bet for this spot. I would of overbet the pot ~250ish try and isolate before the gross turn comes.

That way you set a higher price for draws so there will be less draws on the turn that called and you will be getting probably close to even odds all things considered to make your jam a viable move.

edit: yeah a large majority of those 70% are check/folding the flop unless they like burning money

 

[Tigroslav]

One more thing to avoid confusion
say capped buy in not just cap because originaly thought cap pot.
Thus the implied odds comment.

But regardless the implied odds are still low enough that it doesnt make any huge difference
since if the river pairs nobodys stacking off.

 

[Gildog89]

Shipping it definately huge -EV leak.
Fold is correct
and call slightly -EV

I'm trying to understand how calling is -EV in this spot.

$200 to call with $910 already in the pot. If the board pairs, you're probably getting 1 call on a jam. I might be wrong, but can you explain your thinking a little more?

 

[Tigroslav]

Well Im thinking if board pairs jam is not getting called unless they had flopped 2 pair which is then due to blockers even less likely to happen.

The way the hand played out multiway I think any good player wouldnt call a paired board river jam with a straight or a flush regardless how high.

So infact the only scenario in which a call might happen is the one in which your river outs are greatly dimminished.

And calling is slightly -EV
because you have slightly better 4:1 pot odds in this case compared to 3:1 on a jam but the board pairing is still 1 in 8
at best since somebody might hold or folded your outs.

The possible justification for calling longterm is if the players are LAGs or one of those never fold any made hand fish.

The larger flop bet would increase your turn pot odds very close to that or take the pot down right on the flop
which would be a fine result multiway.

 

[Tigroslav]

I'm trying to understand how calling is -EV in this spot.

$200 to call with $910 already in the pot. If the board pairs, you're probably getting 1 call on a jam. I might be wrong, but can you explain your thinking a little more?

first post says pot on turn 390 then 200+200 go in thats 790 not 910 so for 790 you could call 90-100 and even if it were 910 125-140
it would need to be 1400ish to call 200 and thats asuming all your outs are still live

 

[Tigroslav]

One more option is to float the flop and pehaps this is even better than the overbet.

Although higher variance.

Example: you check if one or two of them bet you jam.

Easy solution is get your money in while youre likely ahead and no hard decisions to make on turn

And fold equitty is pretty high here plus you got a 1 in 3 chance to suck out if youre behind a dummy end straight!

Aaaaaand final option is to bet ~90 on the flop hope to either get raised then jam ( even higher variance )
or pot control for easier decisions on later streets.

I ACTUALY THINK THE WAY YOU PLAYED IT IS BEST
AND SAFEST FOR YOUR bankroll AND LONGTERM PROFIT

PROVIDING YOU FIND THE FOLD BUTTON ON THE TURN!!!

all caps not to shout but to stress key point