$200 NL HE 6-max: BIGSLICK!!!! AK light folding?

[fullorfold]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$1/$2

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

Hey!!!

Don't know if this is a serious leak or not but i don't like to bet out flops like this with AK. I rather bet out on a 44J or 27T flop...
Is it a nitty fold since he check flop? I just feel like i vill burn money if i start call down everytime i miss AK. If blank river all i got is a bluffcatcher. This guy only bets 38% rivers tho. Still don't know if call is profitable... And i can't start represent that i hit something on that board since i 3 bet preflop. Sure i could have like QQ-AA but that is just calls never bets on this board anyways...

MP's stats:

 

[CRStals]

You won't know whether or not MP is calling light but given you have 2k of hands with them at $1 / $2, I have to assume that MP is not someone just picking up the game and playing for the hell of it.

Pre-flop - for them to call an UTG raise from MP tells me that they are sitting on a hand of some sorts - you aren't going to war against an UTG player who is probably playing 15% of hands from that spot - some intel on them might help - so calling against that range, I expect them to have suited paint or a pair more than likely. Your three-bet should narrow that range ESPECIALLY because UTG folds, but MP is getting a decent price to call - basically 2 to 1.

Flop - I get the check but if you are going to three-bet against a raise and a call, the check to me screams a drawing hand that MP is going to pick up on and use against you - again, I'm giving them credit for skills they may not have but it's all I have to go on. You have the ace of hearts blocker - yes, blockers aren't real, but you can easily rep AKhh in that spot and bet to protect your semi-bluff knowing they don't have the nut flush draw The fact that they called twice pre tells me that they probably play too many hands, but if they are as skilled as they look, your check is bad news for yourself.

Turn - a brick hits and misses every draw you are going to have because you three bet pre - unless you three-bet against two players with sixes, you didn't improve on that turn and their bet reflects that. They are playing your range here perfectly, and could be ahead, but in reality they are using your range against you in this spot. Your fold confirmed that for them, and have now opened up a spot they will most likely exploit the next time you three-bet a hand they are in.

I'm not saying bet the flop - I'm also not saying fold the river, but if you are going to back down when you miss on that board, you will lose a lot of money long term in three bet pots in my opinion.

 

[fullorfold]

Turn - a brick hits and misses every draw you are going to have because you three bet pre - unless you three-bet against two players with sixes, you didn't improve on that turn and their bet reflects that. They are playing your range here perfectly, and could be ahead, but in reality they are using your range against you in this spot. Your fold confirmed that for them, and have now opened up a spot they will most likely exploit the next time you three-bet a hand they are in.

I'm not saying bet the flop - I'm also not saying fold the river, but if you are going to back down when you miss on that board, you will lose a lot of money long term in three bet pots in my opinion.

Ofc i dont check every flop with AK even if i don't hit but this flop (lower mid / mid cards) with 2 cold calls.... i dont know how to put him on a range here. Lets say i bet flop. He raise, how can i defend that?

I actually missed i had the A of hearts and i could represent flush draw i guess and bluff as the flush comes on the board. But thats the only thing i could do. He does not put me on anything less then AK. if had AA KK QQ i could only call. maybe i got outplayed this hand, maybe this is just poker. You cant win every hand.

Maybe he played my range against me, but i don't think it will be easy to exploit this in the long run, but i hear what you saying.

Edit, since he cold called 2 bets pref can i put him on his 3 bet range then? then it should be something like this:

 

[fundiver199]

I plugged the hand into GTO Wizard, and your line is within the decision tree. The solver does however C-bet the flop most of the time like maybe 2/3. And as played it does call a small turn bet most of the time again like 2/3. So if you are attempting to play a GTO style, this is a line, you can take now and then, but most of the time you should either bet the flop or call his turn bet.

 

[primrose]

I know this has been said before but these are insane stakes to play if you're not a really seasoned pro. 6max is probably even harder. I would seriously question whether you can actually beat the rake even after 100k hands; this is not a large enough sample to rule out just running hot. The hands you've shown were all quite solid so maybe you can beat the game, but there's a difference between "quite solid" and "beating the rake at 200NL"

I don't have much advice on the hand. Folding to a 1/3 pot bet here is thin because you could easily be ahead, but if you call, then a competent player can make your life hell on the River. Which is again the problem with playing these stakes; if you were against weaker competition, you could call more easily and then the huge bluff on the River often wouldn't come. As is you'd have to know whether they're the kind of player who will put in a huge bluff on the River, which is much harder to know than basic stats like aggression factor.

 

[gustav197poker]

With a heart blocker, you should bet on that flop. As played, the turn fold is reasonable. Calling there makes more sense when you consider the possibility of bluffing on the river.