GreenDaddy1
Rock Star
Silver Level
Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 17/15/4
Jumping back into a bit of 2nl after a break.
Villain 17/15/4, is particularly aggressive on the flop (AF:9) but had folded 5/6 flops vs C Bets. Looks positionally aware so some kind of, at least, semi decent TAG. He has a high 4 bet ratio (7) and folded 2 of 4 times to 3 Bet (a worthless sample size of both counts) and only 273 hands so dangerous to assume very much more.
FLOP: I threw out a 33% ish C Bet, pretty standard for me currently after I've 3 Bet, which was raised. At the time I thought that was about a 50/50 as far my odds to call the raise to hit the flush. I discounted any outs involving pairing the A or K as I could easily pair one or the other and still be beat or chop. Anyway, I called.
Alarm bells were going off however. When he makes this raise I'm leaning heavily towards him having a queen, QQ or AQ. Maybe KQ. 88 possible. Basically something pretty nuttish and I think I am almost always behind vs this move vs this player pool (888 SNAP at a pretty rotten reg infested time of the day). Given that... seeing as the odds were barely good enough, should I have just laid down if I am that sure I'm nearly always way behind here?
I'd be surprised if AA or KK had not 4 bet pre. It could be an aggressive move with AK to get me to lay down, maybe. JJ/TT/99 surely not raising here. I dont really imagine other hands like QJ raising here either, unless perhaps QJ of spades.
TURN: The K on the turn gives me TPTK but I am not massively thrilled. I do feel like it is going to be hard to get away now. I was probably calling any bet once the K hit, but as played villain's small bet again sees me just scraping a 50/50 on the odds to hit the flush.
He has so little left behind compared to the size of the pot I just shove. Might be some deeper analysis required on what that actually achieves besides making sure I win the full amount when he calls and I hit. You could argue if he had AQ and folds when I shove over the top I'm actually losing money. Struggling to see a hand beating me that I fold out with that shove. Pretty sure I should have just taken my barely decent odds and called, and taken the river as it came.
Anyway, have at it.
Pacific Poker - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 57.5 BB
SB: 110.5 BB
Hero (BB): 153.5 BB
UTG: 25.5 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 67.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♠ A♠
UTG calls 1 BB, MP raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 14 BB, fold, MP calls 10 BB
Flop: (29.5 BB, 2 players) 8♠ Q♥ 3♠
Hero bets 10.5 BB, MP raises to 32 BB, Hero calls 21.5 BB
Turn: (93.5 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero checks, MP bets 27.5 BB, Hero raises to 106 BB, MP calls 26.5 BB and is all-in
Jumping back into a bit of 2nl after a break.
Villain 17/15/4, is particularly aggressive on the flop (AF:9) but had folded 5/6 flops vs C Bets. Looks positionally aware so some kind of, at least, semi decent TAG. He has a high 4 bet ratio (7) and folded 2 of 4 times to 3 Bet (a worthless sample size of both counts) and only 273 hands so dangerous to assume very much more.
FLOP: I threw out a 33% ish C Bet, pretty standard for me currently after I've 3 Bet, which was raised. At the time I thought that was about a 50/50 as far my odds to call the raise to hit the flush. I discounted any outs involving pairing the A or K as I could easily pair one or the other and still be beat or chop. Anyway, I called.
Alarm bells were going off however. When he makes this raise I'm leaning heavily towards him having a queen, QQ or AQ. Maybe KQ. 88 possible. Basically something pretty nuttish and I think I am almost always behind vs this move vs this player pool (888 SNAP at a pretty rotten reg infested time of the day). Given that... seeing as the odds were barely good enough, should I have just laid down if I am that sure I'm nearly always way behind here?
I'd be surprised if AA or KK had not 4 bet pre. It could be an aggressive move with AK to get me to lay down, maybe. JJ/TT/99 surely not raising here. I dont really imagine other hands like QJ raising here either, unless perhaps QJ of spades.
TURN: The K on the turn gives me TPTK but I am not massively thrilled. I do feel like it is going to be hard to get away now. I was probably calling any bet once the K hit, but as played villain's small bet again sees me just scraping a 50/50 on the odds to hit the flush.
He has so little left behind compared to the size of the pot I just shove. Might be some deeper analysis required on what that actually achieves besides making sure I win the full amount when he calls and I hit. You could argue if he had AQ and folds when I shove over the top I'm actually losing money. Struggling to see a hand beating me that I fold out with that shove. Pretty sure I should have just taken my barely decent odds and called, and taken the river as it came.
Anyway, have at it.
Pacific Poker - $0.02 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BTN: 57.5 BB
SB: 110.5 BB
Hero (BB): 153.5 BB
UTG: 25.5 BB
MP: 100 BB
CO: 67.5 BB
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has K♠ A♠
UTG calls 1 BB, MP raises to 4 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 14 BB, fold, MP calls 10 BB
Flop: (29.5 BB, 2 players) 8♠ Q♥ 3♠
Hero bets 10.5 BB, MP raises to 32 BB, Hero calls 21.5 BB
Turn: (93.5 BB, 2 players) K♦
Hero checks, MP bets 27.5 BB, Hero raises to 106 BB, MP calls 26.5 BB and is all-in
River: (201.5 BB, 2 players) 5♠
Hero shows K♠ A♠ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 26%, Turn 18%)
MP shows Q♠ Q♣ (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 74%, Turn 82%)
Hero wins 189 BB
Hero shows K♠ A♠ (Flush, Ace High)
(Pre 46%, Flop 26%, Turn 18%)
MP shows Q♠ Q♣ (Three of a Kind, Queens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 74%, Turn 82%)
Hero wins 189 BB
