$2 NLHE 6-max: Flush draw vs pot bet on turn

[sitingman]

GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.01/$0.02 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG (Hero): $2.82 (141 bb)
MP: $2.11 (106 bb)
CO: $2.45 (123 bb)
BU: $2.87 (144 bb)
SB: $0.75 (38 bb)
BB: $2.03 (102 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03) Hero is UTG with A♦ 6♦
Hero raises to $0.06, 3 players fold, SB calls $0.05, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.18) 8♦ K♦ Q♠ (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.06, SB folds, BB raises to $0.22, Hero calls $0.16

Turn: ($0.62) 5♣ (2 players)
BB bets $0.44, UTG (Hero) folds

Should I be calling here or would it be a -EV play, given the odds I am getting to make the flush draw?

I’m not sure what range to put the BB on, they didn’t 3 bet preflop so that makes top sets unlikely? KQ or AK maybe? 88?
I’ve had a bad run of missing flush draws so decided to fold but not sure how I should have played it.

Cheers

 

[braun_kan]

The river is a pure pot odds spot. Your pot odds are .44/(.44+.44+.62) = 29%

To win the pot you very likely need to hit your flush or maybe just hit an ace. Assuming an ace is good then you have 12 outs (9 diamonds and 3 aces). Use the 2/4 rule to estimate the odds of hitting your out (12 x 2) = 24% chance.

24% chance to win the pot is less than your pot odds (29%) so this is a -EV call. And this is assuming hitting an ace wins you the pot which won't always be the case.

 

[Sidetracked]

If this were limit poker, getting those odds on the turn would be EV- as the implied odds if you hit your flush will be very limited.

As this is NL though, your call on the flop should be EV+ if you make your flush. In big bet poker, it's important to factor in how much is left in effective stacks, because THAT is the money that you could/should be paid off with if you hit (your odds of making the flush with 1 card to come are approximately 4:1 against).

 

[Endwarfin]

If this were limit poker, getting those odds on the turn would be EV- as the implied odds if you hit your flush will be very limited.

As this is NL though, your call on the flop should be EV+ if you make your flush. In big bet poker, it's important to factor in how much is left in effective stacks, because THAT is the money that you could/should be paid off with if you hit (your odds of making the flush with 1 card to come are approximately 4:1 against).

I agree with above, possibly 3 bet on the flop.

You are a utg open, even though you could be only on a flop draw, you should be protecting your opening range with a hand that can hit the nuts this strong.

 

[Jarud]

Because this isn't an end of action spot its difficult to calculate the exact math. In a raw sense your getting 29% pot odds and you only have about 18% of clean outs to hit your flush. Implied odds comes into the mix though if you manage to get the money in on the river if your diamond comes.
Stack depth comes into play in this hand, personally I would fold this but would consider calling if you were both playing slightly deeper.

 

[mktpppr]

P: loose open, not crazy, but this spot will get us in trouble vs better Ax flatting behind us, especially with a weak player like SB (38bb) still to act.

F: as played, almost never cbet that drawy broadway flop multi-way. Easy check behind to realize our equity.

As played (cbet), we don't like it, but we must call vs big check/raise (3.7x).

T: as played, now we hate life, I tank-call, but folding is fine as well. It's borderline.

 

[Redman1902]

I think Preflop it is on the looser side, especially on this level you will get a lot of cold calls with Ax that dominates you.

On flop i would prefer bigger size to build pot with your nut draw, with the intention to check back on missed turns.

As played I would fold vs thinking opponent on turn, because your range is quite draw heavy and I think you won't stack him always when you hit your draw.

 

[GreenDaddy1]

I don't mind the open, AXs can be big winners at microstakes when you hit the flush. Someone pointed out the SB is short stacked, and that is a good point. Depending on how loose they are, it is fine to tighten up with a loose short stack yet to act, they can make implied odds hands worth a lot less.

I don't really like the flop c bet size. I hate those 1/3 range type bets and think they're better left to higher stakes gto type strategies. Or at best 3 bet pots. So if I bet here I make it 50%. Probably need to ask why you're betting though. I like semi bluffing nut flush draws for sure, but there is a strong case to check here.

As played I can easily fold the turn based purely on pot odds, and sometimes call. Getting full value here is totally villain dependent. So if this opponent is prone to getting all the money in by the river often then sure, you have the implied odds to call. But many opponents at these stakes do weird things and before you just shrug and call thinking implied odds make it OK, do try to think about what you've seen from this specific villain. You can fold (or call) anything with the right read.