$2 NLHE 6-max: Check Folded Flop With AA...

[Jamalex]

Yatahay Network - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Usually I post my big pots but this one feels like the one I need opinions on tonight

BB: 109.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 115.5 BB
MP: 553 BB
CO: 117 BB
BTN: 120 BB

BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1 BB) Hero has A♠ A♥

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, BTN calls 3 BB, BB calls 2 BB

Flop: (12 BB, 4 players) 6♠ 5♦ Q♠
BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 8.5 BB, BTN raises to 22.5 BB, fold, fold, fold

Spoiler

BTN wins 28 BB

 

[gustav197poker]

I guess you don't have any solid statistics on the villains, otherwise you would post a trend here. Most statistics are not solid, when they are not accompanied by a large enough sample. Even some stats require several thousand sample hands for their confidence interval to be acceptable.
In this hand you are making an opening from UTG, they call you 3 villains with probable wide ranges. I will exclude BB from the analysis, as she has only shown love for blind stickiness.
I understand that the closest reason why hero would check this 4-way flop is if we really believe that we can induce isolation with a 3-bet bluff. Since it can be inferred that with your ace of spades, you are representing the best flush draw combos.
However this action, although it could reduce the variance a bit, has the disadvantage that it eliminates many dominated hands of the aggressors. To 3-bet bluff, we must have indications that at least 1 of these donk bettors, has a high frequency of fold to 3-bet, in a duel against EP, while they are in position.
Obviously we do not have this data, so we should reduce the probability of having a perceived range of bluff. To do this, we should cbet almost 100% of the time here, in order to protect our value range.
When we check this flop, in the eyes of the villains we are giving up before starting the post-flop war. Consequently, from CO and BTN they could take advantage of their capped range images, to represent various monsters flopped in this hand.
Greetings.

 

[zuker]

Pretty wet flop. We can be behind against sets. We have blocking ace of spades and should defenitely make cbet.

 

[fundiver199]

I would C-bet this flop all day long even in a 4-way pot. There are lots of worse hands, you can get value from, and you also want to protect your hand by thinning the field. As played its a pretty weird spot, when there is a big bet and then a raise behind you. The issue now is, if you check and then cold call the raise, your hand looks much stronger than, if you had just bet out yourself, and there is also a risk, CO might have a big hand and put in a 3-bet.

But even so I think, folding is still to nitty. Especially when you check as the preflop raiser, some people will certainly raise top pair "for protection" on a wet board like this, and especially at 2NL, where many players are beginners and dont always understand the relative strength of their hand very well. And there are of course also draws, he might be raising with.

Finally there are very few hands, that have you beat. QQ would usually be 3-bet preflop, and the only reasonable two pair is two combos of 65s. If BTN is loose enough to have Q6, Q5 or 65o, then he have many other hands as well, and he is not very good, which brings us back to the possibility, he is raising top pair or even just some random bluff, because he wants to have fun.

So I think, you have to call here and then basically hope, CO gets out of the way, and that the action slows down on the turn. Having As also matter, because it allow you to continue on spade turns. So if you are ever going to fold AA in this situation, then fold those with no spade.

 

[John A]

You have blockers to two big parts of his range he'd CR as a semi-bluff, nut flush draw and AQ. Without stats, at these stakes, MW I think you made a good fold.

If he had a draw, he has way more incentive to just call MW on this kind of texture. So between those two things - the stakes, and the fact your opponent CR 3 people, I think it's fine. HU, you should be calling here unless you have some really nitty stats on your opponent.