$10 NLHE 6-max: TP with AQo in 3bet pot, Check/Call this flop?

[bgomez89]

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker HUD and Database Software

NL Holdem 0.1(BB)
CO ($12.78) [VPIP: 27.8% | PFR: 4.1% | AGG: 24.1% | Flop Agg: 31.4% | Turn Agg: 8.7% | River Agg: 28.6% | 3-Bet: 0% | 4-Bet: 0% | Hands: 97]
BTN ($16.07) [VPIP: 19.2% | PFR: 12.3% | AGG: 32.3% | hands: 265]
SB ($10.42) [VPIP: 54.9% | PFR: 2.3% | AGG: 25.8% | Hands: 176]
HERO ($10.41) [VPIP: 25.6% | PFR: 21.1% | AGG: 32.5% | Flop Agg: 40.7% | Turn Agg: 28.1% | River Agg: 19.6% | 3-Bet: 5.9% | Fold to 3-Bet: 61.5% | 4-Bet: 9.5% | Hands: 49020]
UTG ($10) [VPIP: 23.1% | PFR: 7.7% | AGG: 0% | Hands: 13]
HJ ($11.76) [VPIP: 69.8% | PFR: 8.6% | AGG: 29.7% | Hands: 119]

Dealt to Hero: A♦ Q♣

UTG Folds, HJ Calls $0.10, CO Raises To $0.20, BTN Folds, SB Calls $0.15, HERO Raises To $1, HJ Folds, CO Calls $0.80, SB Folds

Hero SPR on Flop: [4.09 effective]
Flop ($2.30): A♥ K♠ J♥
HERO ?

My gut reaction is to cbet this flop because I have TP and it's a 3bet pot. However, I'm not sure if there are enough worse hands that can call me. I doubt villain will call any pairs smaller than Jx. This means I think he really only calls me with a range sort of like [QQ,AQs,QJs,JTs,Th9h,9h8h,8h7h,AQo,KQo], I don't even know if he'd have those suited connectors since I don't really have a good read on him yet. Hands like JJ/AK/AJ/KJ/QTs are likely raising this flop so I'd like to get feedback on whether or not a cbet is good here.

 

[tt124f]

I think this is an easy c-bet. You already give a reasonable calling range for your opponent, and that are lot of hands. The only hands that lead you are JJ,QTs and two pairs. Since you are ahead your opponent most of the time I think you should bet both for value and protection. You really do not want your opponent to check behind with JTs or some 56 hearts.

I am not sure about the sizing here. I prefer a small c-bet like 30-40% to keep those weak draw in.If they raise big here, like 4x your bet, I think we can fold because our strong range. Hands like KJ, or even AK, desperately want to put money in the pot immediately because the run out can be worse later on. But if they raise small, I will usually call because the only hand that has the confidence to give opponent good odds to call is QT. We can call this one and see how things developed, may be induce a bluff later on.

 

[Sidetracked]

I think there are a ton of worse hands that can (and will) call a cbet there.

 

[mktpppr]

Hello,

Almost always cbet in this spot: you are OOP in a big 3bet pot on drawy flop that could end in a tricky runout.

Villain has some weaker hands that will call eg TT 99, maybe even smaller pocket pairs.

Sizing is tricky, I think maybe 67-75% of pot, maybe even pot it, but I'm not sure. I just don't like smaller sizings which make more sense in tournaments.

If we get raised we probably have to go with it, not loving it, but take a note for next time.