$10 NLHE 6-max: Check raised on river

T

TLRoyalFlush

Rising Star
Bronze Level
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Nov 4, 2020
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Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

UTG: 138 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 155.3 BB
SB: 118.9 BB
BB: 164.6 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A:club: 5:club:

fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) 2:diamond: 3:heart: A:heart:
SB checks, Hero bets 4.6 BB, SB calls 4.6 BB

Turn: (16.2 BB, 2 players) Q:club:
SB checks, Hero bets 8.1 BB, SB calls 8.1 BB

River: (32.4 BB, 2 players) 7:club:
SB checks, Hero bets 10.6 BB, SB raises to 31.8 BB, fold

SB wins 51 BB


My HUD only had stats for 8 hands so I don't think they can be used and i was new to the table so had no reads.

What are your thoughts here? Flop and turn i'm happy with - can be getting value from flush draws, pairs like 55 - 88(assuming higher pairs would have 3bet pre), a queen if floated the flop.

I went for a thin value bet on the river hoping to get looked up by a queen or low pair, looking back I feel like this may have been a bit optimistic considering I'd barrelled three times, and can just get looked up by a higher ace or even two pair.

But when he check raises the river, I thought his range would have been a set, 45s, or a busted flush draw (doesn't seem like anything else would make sense here?).
In terms of combos there are 3 of 45s, 9 combos of sets (22, 33, 77), and a fair amount of heart suited connecters or one gappers.

Mathematically, I need to call $2.18 to win $7.48 so I have to be right around 20% of the time to be +EV, which would require him to have at least 3 combos of busted flush draws. Thus, should I have called the raise given that he definitely has more than 3 combos of busted flush draws in his range?

Any help would be great,
Cheers
 
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