$10 NLHE 6-max: Calling third barrel when flush card comes?

[TLRoyalFlush]

Pacific Poker - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players

SB: 110 BB
Hero (BB): 133.9 BB
UTG: 111 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 111 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 9:diamond: Q:club:

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 2.5 BB, Hero calls 1.5 BB

Flop: (5 BB, 2 players) 9:spade: K:heart: 2:spade:
SB bets 3.2 BB, Hero calls 3.2 BB

Turn: (11.4 BB, 2 players) Q:heart:
SB bets 7.2 BB, Hero calls 7.2 BB

River: (25.8 BB, 2 players) 3:spade:
SB bets 15.2 BB, fold

SB wins 24.6 BB

1) I feel like calling the turn bet would be the better play here as do not want to get jammed on by draws / sets. What do you guys think?

2) When the flush card comes, I feel like the the only hands he would realistically be third barrelling beat me. I do only need 27% equity for the call to be +EV, here i put him on a range of 99, kk, qq, 10j, kq, k9, Axs, Kxs, Qxs, which does not really leave enough room to have 27% of his range being bluffs, or very very thin value bets that i beat like ak. What do you guys think?

 

[John A]

It's a thin call if he's overly aggressive, if not it's a fold. And yes, he can have that many bluffs because 1) it's blind vs blind and people tend to barrel more in these spots. The turn provided a lot more draws and combo draws that could turn into bluffs - heart flush draws, 9T, 9J (etc, but of course you have blockers here), AT, always add at least 4 combos of air.

 

[1player2]

Hello,


I think those are large bets for drawing hands. I would call and hope villian has a one pair hand. Could have a set but i think a flush value bets bigger than this on the river when you called two barrels that were both larger than 1/2 pot.

 

[300HPGOD]

I think you can go either on way pre flop but I am nitty so you may not want to listen to me on that one but I dont mind any play there as I think they can all be backed up depending on opponent. I like your pre flop call as there is no reason to raise there imo, just call and see what happens on the turn.

The turn card is where I disagree with your play and your point #1 that is on your post. We have a strong hand now that is vulnerable to draws and we know if those draws miss we will have a hard time getting value from them unless they lead bluff the river. I would be raising the turn here for value. This targets the draws and Kx hands that the villain could have and also may even make the villain check the river even when they hit thinking we will fire again. This means we might be able to get away on the river more easily when a draw hits by raising on this turn. I do want to point out that I think you are being overly cautious in your reasoning not to raise. You post that you are worried that draws might jam on you. We should want draws to jam on us here. It will put us in a tough spot but we just have to dechiper whether they are doing this with a draw or KK (really doubt they have 22 but it is possible). We have a set blocker to the other two cards so sets are limited here. Villain could have J10 here but we dont want to be so scared that we give up an opportunity for value. Raising here is the better play to get what you can from draws that most likely will miss on the river.

As played on the river I would be torn here. In my mind I agree with you that they are probably only 3 barreling here with a flush but is it worth it to call here in the long run to know that is the case against this opponent? That could only be answered by often you think you will see this opponent in the future but I would at least consider calling since my hand is good some % of the time and I also find out something about this opponent which I can note and use for a future river bet that more likely will be much bigger than this one.

 

[TLRoyalFlush]

It's a thin call if he's overly aggressive, if not it's a fold. And yes, he can have that many bluffs because 1) it's blind vs blind and people tend to barrel more in these spots. The turn provided a lot more draws and combo draws that could turn into bluffs - heart flush draws, 9T, 9J (etc, but of course you have blockers here), AT, always add at least 4 combos of air.

Thanks for your comment!

So you say that it would be be a thin call only if he's over aggressive, but then you say he can have a lot of bluffs - is that not a contradiction? Say his value range is 99, kk, qq, 10j, kq, k9, axs kxs qxs jxs that gives at least 60-70 combos, while a range that i beat of axs, jxs of hearts, 910, 9j, 89 would need over 25 combos to make up 27% of his range, which seems possible. Would that not make it a call?

 

[TLRoyalFlush]

I think you can go either on way pre flop but I am nitty so you may not want to listen to me on that one but I dont mind any play there as I think they can all be backed up depending on opponent. I like your pre flop call as there is no reason to raise there imo, just call and see what happens on the turn.

The turn card is where I disagree with your play and your point #1 that is on your post. We have a strong hand now that is vulnerable to draws and we know if those draws miss we will have a hard time getting value from them unless they lead bluff the river. I would be raising the turn here for value. This targets the draws and Kx hands that the villain could have and also may even make the villain check the river even when they hit thinking we will fire again. This means we might be able to get away on the river more easily when a draw hits by raising on this turn. I do want to point out that I think you are being overly cautious in your reasoning not to raise. You post that you are worried that draws might jam on you. We should want draws to jam on us here. It will put us in a tough spot but we just have to dechiper whether they are doing this with a draw or KK (really doubt they have 22 but it is possible). We have a set blocker to the other two cards so sets are limited here. Villain could have J10 here but we dont want to be so scared that we give up an opportunity for value. Raising here is the better play to get what you can from draws that most likely will miss on the river.

As played on the river I would be torn here. In my mind I agree with you that they are probably only 3 barreling here with a flush but is it worth it to call here in the long run to know that is the case against this opponent? That could only be answered by often you think you will see this opponent in the future but I would at least consider calling since my hand is good some % of the time and I also find out something about this opponent which I can note and use for a future river bet that more likely will be much bigger than this one.

In terms of raising on the turn; say i raised to 20bb, i would be staking 20 to win 18.6, meaning i need at least 52% equity vs his range for this to be profitable. Raising here would most likely fold out most of the hands I beat e.g. 9x kx qx, the hands that have me beat (99, kk, qq, 10j etc) that would call/ship have me pretty much drawing dead, while the draws that would call me here still have 20%+ equity against me. Of the hands that have me beat there are around 30 combos, and of flush draws (say axs, jxs hearts, axs, kxs, qxs, jxs of spades, 910, 98, 97, 9j hearts) there are say around 45 combos. So total equity against this range would be say 5% vs 30/75 + say 75% vs 45 / 75 = 47%. 47 < 52 so this raise wouldn't be profitable???

 

[300HPGOD]

In terms of raising on the turn; say i raised to 20bb, i would be staking 20 to win 18.6, meaning i need at least 52% equity vs his range for this to be profitable. Raising here would most likely fold out most of the hands I beat e.g. 9x kx qx, the hands that have me beat (99, kk, qq, 10j etc) that would call/ship have me pretty much drawing dead, while the draws that would call me here still have 20%+ equity against me. Of the hands that have me beat there are around 30 combos, and of flush draws (say axs, jxs hearts, axs, kxs, qxs, jxs of spades, 910, 98, 97, 9j hearts) there are say around 45 combos. So total equity against this range would be say 5% vs 30/75 + say 75% vs 45 / 75 = 47%. 47 < 52 so this raise wouldn't be profitable???

The alternative is to do as was played and allow the villain to play perfectly. Every time a spade comes you are folding and that means whether they have it or they dont. If a spade does not come then it depends on whether villain is the type to lead out again and bluff. Some of the combos you mention above are not flush combos but still beat us. So are you calling them when a flush card doesnt come on the river? My guess is you are so you would be better off to raise them on the turn and see if they re raise you there and can possibly get away from it. Sounds a little weird so if you dont believe my next point I understand but part of the reason for raising on the turn is to also take control of the hand (I know I put raise for value in my post and it is since I still believe depending on opponent Kx can call you here). Raising the turn will lead to a lot of villains checking to you on the river and then you can decide there what you want to. Plus the draws you are worried about raising you on the turn will not always raise. Much of the time they will fear you have something large and will call to see if they can get there on the river. The equity calculation above that you make does not factor in the the added value of getting the opponent to check the river, does not factor in sometimes that villain will call with worse like some Kx hands, and is assuming villain always raises with draws and does not just call the raise with them. I am not acting like what I am writing is the best move ever, I am putting in what I like to do in spots similar to these since I know there will be many river cards that could come where I could (maybe not you) will be outplayed. I think with this play you will get a little more value from hands that if you called otherwise would just check fold the river to you when you are ahead.

 

[John A]

Thanks for your comment!

So you say that it would be be a thin call only if he's over aggressive, but then you say he can have a lot of bluffs - is that not a contradiction? Say his value range is 99, kk, qq, 10j, kq, k9, axs kxs qxs jxs that gives at least 60-70 combos, while a range that i beat of axs, jxs of hearts, 910, 9j, 89 would need over 25 combos to make up 27% of his range, which seems possible. Would that not make it a call?

Nope. In any analysis it's always best to start w/ the most extreme case, and if it doesn't pass then it makes all decisions easier. So if you can't find enough bluffs for an aggressive player to have, then you know the answer is a No (don't call). But we can, so now it's a matter of how aggressive is he because that will determine how many bluff combos he'll have.

 

[freddydr87]

I think is a very good fold, in river a lot off draws get there or hit a pair. Flush get there TJ complite strait, QJ hit a second pair(althoug i dont think he would like to make a 3 barrel with it),and also i dont think he would make a 3barrel now with the draw complited unless he has at least 1 bloquer. You could be beating some Kx but i guess the fold is beater unless you know vilain very well.

 

[cs_rlewis]

This is a fist pump snap call!
Don't fold your strong holdings!
2 pair is a strong hand.
You have to accept that your going to be beat sometimes and you can't always call with the nuts.
You unblock all of his bluffs, plus blocking some of his triple barrel value combos like 99 and QQ
Your not holding a T or J, nor a spade, which are his main trope barrel bluff combos. You are going to lose to a better hands sometimes.
Also at microstakes people tend to overvalue made hands, so villain can easily take this line with top pair or AA.