What would you do here ?

[KillerKat]

I was playing a live game tonight when this hand came up. The starting stack was $2500 and I had $3500 chips, blinds were 200/400 and it was folded in to the SB who had a stack of $3700.

SB calls. Passive calling station, he has seen lots of flops (over 90%) so i get



I raise from the BB an extra $1000. SB calls.

Flop was



Small blind goes all-in........ How many outs do i have, do i call it, if i lose im basically going home.

 

[twizzybop]

Flush plus the open ended straight draw...

9 for the flush...8 for the open ended minus 2 cause they are also clubs.

17 outs X 4 for the turn is 68% and 34% at the river. So basically all the way down the river is a 68% to win.

 

[Schatzdog]

You don't know if your flush draw is valid. What if your opponent holds Ac Xc? Something to think about.

 

[twizzybop]

It may not be valid but the opponents cards are still unseen making the odds still at 68%.

 

[Tammy]

With those kind of outs, I would think you have to call. If you go with the aforementioned straight and flush draw outs, plus 6 more the the Ks and Qs still unseen (assuming he has AJ or something similar). It would be tough, but I think I would call.

 

[Four Dogs]

Straight Flush draw, 15 outs minimum. Your 54% to fill getting 2:1. He may have the nuts draw but you can't be that cautious. Take him to town Kat.

 

[shwingzilla]

It may not be valid but the opponents cards are still unseen making the odds still at 68%.

I'm not sure what your point is here. I don't care if I made a flush and my opponent made a higher flush. Even if you assume your opponent plays crap poker and plays random hands, anything better than bottom pair bad kicker wins more than 32% of the time.

Though I have to disagree with the above posters, this call only looks hard. It's actually a pretty easy call once you do the math. Ac9c is the only hand that beats you more than 62% of the time.

 

[chicubs1616]

I call, you most likely have 17 outs(lets say 7 to a flush if he has Ax of clubs, 4 outs for K and Q's (taking into account the possibility of him having a hand like JT, KT, QT), and 6 outs for the straight).

You are a favorite in the hand right now. Call.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

17 outs X 4 for the turn is 68% and 34% at the river. So basically all the way down the river is a 68% to win.

*59.76% to hit with 2 cards to come.

pot odds compel you to call, you may even have a few more overcard outs as well if you're lucky.

 

[F Paulsson]

I was playing a live game tonight when this hand came up. The starting stack was $2500 and I had $3500 chips, blinds were 200/400 and it was folded in to the SB who had a stack of $3700.

SB calls. Passive calling station, he has seen lots of flops (over 90%) so i get



I raise from the BB an extra $1000. SB calls.

Flop was



Small blind goes all-in........ How many outs do i have, do i call it, if i lose im basically going home.

Your overcard outs could be tainted, so I don't think it's fair to count them as six full outs, more like 3. And while it's true that you technically won't be drawing to the nut flush, I think the times you won't be are fairly rare. Conservatively count 8 outs for the flush to make up for it, if you want. The straight will give you the definitive nuts if you make it though, and that adds another 6 outs. So ~17 outs.

The pot is laying you $5300-$2500 (if I'm counting correctly), or a little better than 2-1. You'd be borderline correct to call with only 10 outs, and you're more than justified to call with your monster draw.

Don't completely disregard the possibility that you might actually be ahead already. I've seen pushes with weak straight and flush draws in these positions before.

Also factor in that you're almost pot committed at this point, having less than 7 BBs left if you fold.

It's a call.

 

[KillerKat]

Well really I didnt have to think about this one too hard, I was going to push all in if he didnt. The way I looked at it I had way too many outs not too. Even If he had an Ace and an ace hit the board id have him bet. I knew he didnt have any sort of monster.
So I called. He shows down . I was delighted. But guess what, I did'nt hit anything. I was gone.
I tell ya I had a hard time saying well done and putting a smile on my face.

But justice was done, I took him out of the second game.

 

[F Paulsson]

I count 9 clubs, 3+3 overcard outs (kings and queens), and 2+3 straight cards (the two red aces and the 3 non-club nines) = 9+6+5 = 20 outs.

It takes skill to dodge 20 cards out of the remaining 45. Twice.

Too bad about the outcome, though.