What are the odds of these hands? by Casino.us

[twizzybop]

3 Straight hands I got the same 2 cards but they were also suited all 3 times.

1st BB Qh 8h (which won me a big pot, hit the straight)
2nd SB Qd 8d Folded
3rd Button Qh 8h also folded

After the 3rd straight one came. I sat there going wtf is this? How in the world does someone get the same starting 2 cards that are suited 3 times straight? Not to mention 2 out of the 3 times they were also of the same suit.(hearts)

 

[t1riel]

Yesterday, I got three straight A, Q. Not that I'm complaining or anything.

 

[F Paulsson]

The probability of getting the first [Qh][8h] is 1.
The probability of getting another one (any suited Q8) is 4/1326 ~ 1/332.
Getting the third one is therefore (1/332)*(1/332) = 1/110224.

Of course, you might not have been looking for an actual answer to the rhetorical question of what the odds are

 

[colin_147]

Where's Diablo when you want an argument on odds of recurring events......

 

[robwhufc]

Where's Diablo when you want an argument on odds of recurring events......

He never got his head around it did he!

Here's another one then - I was dealt EIGHT consecutive suited hold cards about a month ago at Paradise. What are the odds of that?

 

[F Paulsson]

There are two ways to look at that, but let's go with the one yielding a lower probability (and thus a larger "wow"-factor ):

Probability of getting two suited cards:
Card 1: Probality of 1.
Card 2: Probability of 12/51 = 0.235, which is then the probability for two suited hole cards.

0.234^8 = 9.39*10^-6 gives a probability of 1/106442.

EDIT: 1/106442, not 1/106441. But who's counting!

 

[Schatzdog]

Isn't each hand statistically independent from the previous? Shouldn't the probability of getting any hand dealt remain the same?

 

[Four Dogs]

Where's Diablo when you want an argument on odds of recurring events......

colin I think you and some of the newer members should go back and review the diablo posts. It completely escapes me how he got a reputation as a statistician other than he always had an opinion. On everything. I think it came from is tendency to go postal whenever anyone used some super extreme event as anectodal evedence of the corruption of online poker without actually having any grasp of statistics or why it would benefit a poker room to juice the cards. While we always saw eye to eye in that respect, he seemed incapable of understanding the math behind the odds.