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Message: [QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6781444, member: 305911"] You say that you have 1500 hands on villain and they limp a lot including big pairs (which I would not be afraid of AA or KK due to blockers and board) so you are saying they are a 60/10 player or are they a 40/5 player... 85/5 player? I dont need to know but am only bringing this up as you would know since you have the HUD on them and there are reasons for against why I could say a 85/5 player could or wouldnt have a 7 and could make similar arguments as well for players who are involved in less hands than that (the 40/10 players). Here though, I think we have to think about this hand, like every hand, in a collective fashion. We cant just ask did they have the 7 or not but more be thinking along the lines with if we bet 11k on turn against that stack and that pot are we ever folding including even if we think there is a chance of them having 77? We just cant be folding here so its a moot point whether they have the 7 based on your bet sizing. Your question comes into pay if we had checked the turn or bet smaller on the turn and then got jammed on. Let's not forget either that UTG started the hand with 16 BBs and we flop top two pair... we should not be looking to fold in this scenario as the effective stack is small and we flop such a strong hand. Its a little bad to say but we should not be concerned with whether villain has a 7 or not but more concerned with whats the best way to get the most chips in the middle by the end as this is a hand that we are going with off of 16 BBs effective. As far as my guess goes, I dont know villain on whether they are 85/5 or 35/6 as I mentioned before but I think off their stack they are not folding any Ax here especially if they realize on the turn they chop with all large Ax besides AK and A7. In the 1500 hands you have played against them they may have seen you do what you did here, bet large on turn and then snap fold so they figured any Ax is good to go with for stack depth reasons and what they think they know about you. I am not convinced they had a 7 and would make them have a 7 if I have top two pair (that still plays here) and only 16 BBs effective. Could they have it and were beat... sure but they could have Ax here as well. So my final answer is because of stack size I wouldnt care and would be getting the chips in but I give a greater likelihood they didnt have it. One more point, if you knew villain was so wide then you should have had a plan on the turn instead of betting large and then folding. If you think they have it (which is what you thought cause you folded) why did you bet so large? Why not just check back and then bluff catch river or if your really feel they have it fold? At least folding in that scenario would save you 11k in chips vs the actual outcome. [/QUOTE]

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