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Poker Strategy
Tournament Poker
Tournament Hand Analysis
$CC FR NL HE MTT: Is 54 % equity enough to defend BB with about 10 BB
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6928906, member: 397965"] As SpanRmonka say, Villain has a range and not a hand. We can use software like ICMizer find our calling range. In chip EV, which mean not taking ICM or payjumps into account, the calling range from BB against a HJ jam for 10BB is 24% of hands or more specifically 22+, A4+, KT+, QJ, A2s+, K9s+, JTs+. So in chip EV A5o is a good call winning you 0,24BB. This is assuming, that Villain is jamming the Nash range, which is this case is 28% or slightly more hands, than you are calling. If he is not jamming all those hands, A5o can become a losing call. However things change drastically, if ICM or payjumps are relevant. Lets say its a 9-man SnG with 6 players left, and everyone have 10BB. Now HJ is only supposed to jam 26% of hands, so slightly less than before, but not really all that different. BB however is only supposed to call 9,5% of hands or more specifically 66+, AT+, A9s, KQs. Now calling with A5o loses you 1,75% of the price pool, which count as a very significant mistake. And the reason for that is, that if you call and lose, you are out. But if you call and win, you can still only win one of the 3 prices and not the entire price pool. A good way to illustrate this idea is to look at the game of chicken, where two hard-headed young men drive against each other in their cars. The one, who first turn away AKA "the chicken", is the loser and end in the ditch. However if none turn away, they collide and both die. When a poker player has moved all-in, its equivalent to one of the drivers taking off his steering wheel and holding it out the window for the other driver to see. That driver now know, he is not able to turn away, even if he wanted to, so he will need to do it to avoid the collision and survive. Which in poker mean folding. So depending on, what stage of the tournament this was, and what other players stack sizes were, this might have been an ok but marginal call or a really bad call, even though you were slightly ahead of his actual hand this time. Of course it also depends on, if 10BB was your stack or his stack. If he was the one jamming for 10BB, but you had 40BB, then you can call close to the chip EV range, because losing dont end your tournament. [/QUOTE]
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$CC FR NL HE MTT: Is 54 % equity enough to defend BB with about 10 BB
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