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Message: [QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6470246, member: 305911"] Whenever we see a hand like this we miss out on all the stuff that has happened before the hand. TV poker can leave out the action leading up to big hands so we see some plays and think why would they do this but we dont see the lead up where player x may have been 3 betting frequently and therefore wider. Also this being 7 handed at the time makes a difference as well as in normal circumstances UTG+2 raise would give a different vibe than a hijack (which happens to be UTG+2 at this table) would give. In this hand we don't know anything about the CO as observers. They could have been 3 betting a lot which would then make AQ suited a go hand with 31 BBs where as against a tight player we arent loving it. In this spot like all 3 bet spots we have to range the opponent compared to our hand. Without knowing anything about the villain but basing it on some population assumptions and position (they still have 3 to act after them) they are not weak here that often meaning my belief would be we can throw out the Ace wheel suited hands and even hands like KQ and KJ. I would think a more "normal" 3 et range like 99+, AJs+. Against that range we are 41% and I would think if we jam we would have at least some fold equity against 99 and 1010 but I dont think it is enough to overcome the equity disadvantage. So if GJ feels like there is no bluffs here and villain is not wide then a vast majority of the time they are flipping or worse and a decent amount of the time they are crushed. One problem is though you cant call for 1/4th your stack here pre so you have to jam or fold. Folding AQ suited would make you exploitable if anyone could actually see your cards because then you are folding out pretty much everything but the equity against the estimated range isnt there. I think this is one that unless you know something about the villain then the math would dictate a fold. Have to go by what you believe the range is. [/QUOTE]

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