$5.50 NL HE MTT: 77 in multy-way pot

[mariussica88]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Table Format

MTT

Buy-in

5.50

Game Options

1. Bounty

Currency

$

Same tournament like the hand before, but now we are with 900 players left until the money places. Taking into consideration the bounties and the stacks, what do you do here?

 

[DavidWhite]

easy fold, you're gonna be dominated. for the villian to shove means he has a good hand, from AA, JJ all the way down to broadway. fold and wait for a better hand/spot

 

[primrose]

Yeah easy fold

 

[fundiver199]

First of all we are never just calling here for 30% of our chips and allowing the BB into the pot, so its a jam or fold spot. According to your other hand history the starting stack is 50k, and the all-in player has a $5,94 bounty, which is then worth at least 60k chips at this stage. If the original raiser comes along, you can also win his $4,93 bounty, which is worth at least another 50k chips. And I think, we need to assume, he almost always call, because he can also win the $5,94 bounty.

For sake of simplicity we can assume, that BB fold. It does not matter than much, because if he call, we are usually flipping with him in a side pot. He only has 88+ 3,5% of the time, and occationally he might even call with hands, we dominate, because he want to win 3 bounties. So lets just ignore BB and assume, he fold, which will also be the most common outcome, if we jam.

Now we can pull out Equilab and assign them some ranges. The all-in player should be on a tight range, because he need to expect, that he almost always get action and often multiway action, since he has a juicy bounty, which everyone can win. Lets say he jam 6% of hands. Lets also say, the original raiser open 16% of hands. That seems realistic with 6 players behind him.

Just to make the math easy we can say, you are risking 100k to win 300k plus bounties worth 100k so 400k all in all. This means, you need 25% equity in Chip EV. According to Equilab you have 26%. So its not a big deal either way. Personally I tend to take close spots in PKOs to try to build a big stack, but its also ok to pass on this one and fold.

 

[Goggelheimer]

Easy fold, even in a bounty tournament.
BB covers you and may push also because he covers all players in the hand, even if he is a nit statwise.

 

[fundiver199]

Easy fold, even in a bounty tournament.

Well I just did the math and proved, that its probably a call and certainly not an "easy" fold. But whatever

BB covers you and may push also because he covers all players in the hand, even if he is a nit statwise.

Which is fine. Then we just play a "flip" with him in the side pot against his KJ or whatever. The way to win money in bounty tournaments is to "go strong or go home" not to be risk averse and try to min-cash for usually not even the buyin.

 

[primrose]

Well I just did the math and proved, that its probably a call and certainly not an "easy" fold. But whatever

I agree it's not an easy fold (I was assuming the bounty stuff is negligible, but it's a bigger factor than i realized, so I concede it's close). But I don't think it's a call. You've only had one more percent than you needed, and you had several simplifying assumptions that work for you, like

- BB doesn't always fold; he's allowed to have Aces here
- original raiser doesn't always call

these will change the result by more than 1%, specifically the BB. If he calls it's just a disaster because he'll have an overpair most of the time.

 

[fundiver199]

these will change the result by more than 1%, specifically the BB. If he calls it's just a disaster because he'll have an overpair most of the time.

This is a fair point. Getting called by 88+ for all our chips will happen around 3,5% of the time and result in a loss of around 120k chips in the side pot as well as a worse situation in the main pot. The chip loss from the side pot alone is 4.2k, which is more than 1% of the 3-way main pot of 300k. So 77 is probably a fold, while 88 might then be the worst pair, we stack off.

But its never a huge deal, if we are one hand to tight or to loose, and its impossible to always get it right in real time. So if Hero got it in here with 77, its not like, its some major spew, that massively inpact his long term EV. The most important is to understand, what the math is behind adjusting to bounties, so that we get it at least somewhat right.

 

[mariussica88]

First of all we are never just calling here for 30% of our chips and allowing the BB into the pot, so its a jam or fold spot. According to your other hand history the starting stack is 50k, and the all-in player has a $5,94 bounty, which is then worth at least 60k chips at this stage. If the original raiser comes along, you can also win his $4,93 bounty, which is worth at least another 50k chips. And I think, we need to assume, he almost always call, because he can also win the $5,94 bounty.

For sake of simplicity we can assume, that BB fold. It does not matter than much, because if he call, we are usually flipping with him in a side pot. He only has 88+ 3,5% of the time, and occationally he might even call with hands, we dominate, because he want to win 3 bounties. So lets just ignore BB and assume, he fold, which will also be the most common outcome, if we jam.

Now we can pull out Equilab and assign them some ranges. The all-in player should be on a tight range, because he need to expect, that he almost always get action and often multiway action, since he has a juicy bounty, which everyone can win. Lets say he jam 6% of hands. Lets also say, the original raiser open 16% of hands. That seems realistic with 6 players behind him.

Just to make the math easy we can say, you are risking 100k to win 300k plus bounties worth 100k so 400k all in all. This means, you need 25% equity in Chip EV. According to Equilab you have 26%. So its not a big deal either way. Personally I tend to take close spots in PKOs to try to build a big stack, but its also ok to pass on this one and fold.

Thank you for this analysis, ❤️ I would love to stay with you and talk about poker. I would love to have this way of thinking that you have. You are spot on.
I did call in the end. Here is result: