Reply to thread

Message

[QUOTE="Matt_Burns88, post: 6435007, member: 343619"]
This is definitely a tight spot. When he bets almost pot on the river, we can assume he's fairly polarised, especially after he check raised the flop. This would lead me to think he either has, two pair, sets, or draw that missed, such as clubs. I don't see him playing hands like 74 or 42 that get there on the turn, but I guess he can have some 97s, particularly 9c7c, not sure he's check/raising flop with any other combos of 97.

So we have 1 combo of K6s, 2 combos of K5s, 9 combos of 65 (assuming they're calling with unsuited as well), 3 combos of 66 and 3 combos of 55. 18 combos in total of value hands.

Bluffs, we have 10 combos of Axc, maybe QJc, JTc plus 97c 87c and 76c (maybe 43c). They may also be check raising flop with all their 87s, so we can add 3 more combos. What else do we think they are bluffing with? And how often are they bluffing with all of these hands?

If we just go with these raw numbers, they have 18 value hands vs 19 bluffs. with the pot odds of 2.1:1, it looks like it this is just about a fold. Then when you consider villain, might not be playing all his bluff combos and more likely, might not be pulling the trigger with all of his bluff combos, I think this ends up being quite a clear fold, but not obvious or easy to work out in real time
[/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us