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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$5.5 NL HE MTT: Learn from the opponents - know why you are betting the river
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 7129912, member: 397965"] Third and for now final instalment of "trying to learn from my opponents". In this hand I think, the opponent made reasonable decisions on the flop and turn. Lets just ignore preflop, since we can end up in a similar situation without making a loose open. For instance his hand could have been suited. The interesting point here is the river bet, because what does this accomplish? He essentially have bottom pair, so its very unlikely, a worse hand will call. So presumably he was turning his pair into a bluff. But what can he make me fold, that arrive to the river like this? When I call his flop bet with a player left to act behind me, most of my range will be AX and maybe some 8X. There were no draws, and I cant call on a pure float with a player left to act behind me. This makes it very unlikely, I have a K. If I have an 8, I would probably fold to a pot sized river bet. But he chop with an 8, so he only win half the pot by bluffing. I am obviously never folding a 4, if I somehow have that. And I am also never folding an A, because on the river all aces chop except for AK and A8, and I just dont believe, he check the turn with two pair or better. So if I have an ace, which I do very often, as the action went down, I am beating him into the pot expecting to often chop, sometimes win against a bluff and very rarely lose. So the conclusion is, he can mainly make me fold a hand, he already chop with, and for that reason his best option is to check and then make a decision, if I bet. Most likely fold, since I dont really have any hands, that call on the flop and now need to bluff. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/?hand=125vsK1vT[/URL] [/QUOTE]
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$5.5 NL HE MTT: Learn from the opponents - know why you are betting the river
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