Reply to thread

Message: [QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6581722, member: 305911"] I know in game I would check the river against an unknown but I would be fairly confident I was ahead. I think in reality this is a bet fold spot and my sizing would be somewhere in the neighborhood of 700 (if I was to bet in game) since we go to the river 2350 ish effective. My check is just based on the thought process that I dont know this villain and I dont know yet what their limp call range against 5x is pre or their call down tendencies so I have to use my thinking of a population read here and think if villain even had some smaller Ax that (remember the pre flop limp discounts AJ and AQ so the bigger Ax's that we beat are less likely) that was not two pair at this point would they call 3 streets with the backdoor flush coming in as well? I'd say no (right or wrong but who knows at this point) so I would just check and play safe even though Im leaving some potential value out there. Getting back to this hand from a hand reading perspective, on the river we are worried about a flush, possible but unlikely straight, sets, two pairs. I'll start with sets and straights. Both of these should have hit them by the turn since I dont think villain has 32 or would call two streets with 44. With the turn double suiting would villain just call the turn bet with those strong hands? I doubt it, I would expect a lead being worried about a check back or would expect a check raise there so I am throwing those out (although I played a hand recently where someone just called me with a set when the board was very wet lol, so it possible but im saying unlikely). Next is two pair. Two pair falls in the same category as sets and straights unless the two pair occurred with the 4 on the river. How many 4x hands are open limping and then calling 5x pre and then calling down? We dont know for sure but I wouldnt say many outside of A4 but if villain has A4 they would have to had call 2 streets and could not have had any flush draw based on what came out in this hand so I doubt that but it is possible. All the other two pair hands I think you would hear from by the time you head to the river. That leaves flushes which I think is the most likely hand if villain is in fact ahead of you. Some Ax spade hands that would have called flop due to the ace and then called turn as well since they now have a flush draw. Would they check river? Yeah maybe if they think you have Ax (which is your most likely holding) and think you will bet again or think you will fold if they were to lead river. With all that, I think the real best play here is to bet with the intention of folding to a raise. [/QUOTE]

Verification

Search

Reply to thread

About CardsChat

Our Community

Our Site

Follow us

Language