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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$3.3 NL HE MTT: Bad runout for top set
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[QUOTE="300HPGOD, post: 6654995, member: 305911"] Pre and and the flop I think are standard , even though I hate to use that word with poker. I really like the sizing you picked on the flop since it is small enough to induce some floats that might not float at say 60% or so but also not so small that it an eyebrow raiser. On the turn I think we have to lead here due to the board getting wetter and if villain has nothing at this point we arent getting anything more anyway. Also no reason for them to see a free card so I like the bet and like the sizing again for what I just wrote. If they have nothing then they are folding to 35-40% sizing here but if they do have a little something or a draw they want to get sticky with then your uptick in sizing extracts that value from them. Good bet here imo. On the river is where some would disagree with me and thats good for discussion but I would be checking this river almost, if not, 100% of the time no matter what card comes. Without knowing anything about the villain we dont know if they are a station or not so I would put a general read on them that most players dont like calling a triple barrel without a pretty good hand. A lot of those pretty good hands beat us here with the only exception that I think would call a triple here that we beat is two pair (which can exist here like 98 or 87). With the thought process that villain wont often call a triple barrel when I am ahead here I like checking to try to induce a bluff. We do get bet at which is what we want and the sizing in polarizing which at this stack depth is fine to me since we started 45 BBs effective and that is a small enough stack for me to be willing to get all in by the end with top set. The river also lends itself to bluffs since its such a scare card completing the flush and 4 to a gutter so I would have my mind made up here before I checked river that any sizing I face I would at least be calling. I would then follow through when faced with this bet and make the call. We could be beat, yes, but at this stack depth Im not looking to fold top set especially when there is a scary river that opens the door for villain to think he can bluff at it. [/QUOTE]
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$3.3 NL HE MTT: Bad runout for top set
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