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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$3.00 NL HE STT: 88 have to fold here, right?
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6412210, member: 397965"] 88 is a snap fold to this action, and it might even be a fold, if MP had gotten out of the way. As you say, MP has a very strong range here, because he is risking 25BB against SB and even more against you, and he is doing it without fold equity. And even the SB jamming range is probably pretty top side weigthed here. He has a wide gap between his VPIP and PFR, so if he had some kind of marginal hand like a small pair or a suited broadway, he would probably just call and see a flop out of position. In top of that ICM is a major consideration here. If you call and win, you will have more than half the chips in play. But this still only gives you a little over 50% chance to win the tournament. If I simplify the situation by giving everyone the same stack, then everyone has an EV of 16,7% of the price pool. In a winner take all format, or what we call "chip EV mode", a player going all-in against two opponents and busting them will now have an EV of 50% of the price pool. So ignoring the blinds and antes, and the chips you put in already, you would need 33,4% equity to make a small profit. However because its not winner takes all, and you can only win one of the prices, a player busing two other guys, when everyone have equal stacks, will only increase his equity to 37% of the price pool, and for that reason he actually need 45,1% equity to make a small profit. In your exact situation the numbers are slightly different, because you already put in 2,5BB, and you also cover especially SB, so he cant bust you. But you are still going to need an equity premium of something like 10-12% over the chip EV number to make this call. So the widest, I would call here, is AKs and QQ+, and the calling range could even be as tight as KK+. This depends a little bit on, what kind of range we put them on. Like for instance if we think, SB would 3-bet small with KK and AA rather than jam, then we can call a little bit wider. To find the exact calling range, you run the ICM calculations first to determine what pot odds, you need, and then you plug in their assumed ranges in Equilab, which is also free software. [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.icmizer.com/icmcalculator/[/URL] [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.pokerstrategy.com/poker-software-tools/equilab-holdem/[/URL] I think, its very educational to try to do this a few times manually to really understand the math, that lies behind a calling range. But you can also make a shortcut by using ICMizer, which gives one free calculation per day. However as I said already, I dont think, SB is playing a pure push-or-fold strategy, so if you use ICMizer, I would still want to change SBs range manually. And maybe try to play around with it a little to see, what that does to your calling range. But then you need to subscribe, since you are doing more than just one calculation. [/QUOTE]
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$3.00 NL HE STT: 88 have to fold here, right?
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