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$20 NL HE STT: Pot-sized bet on flop- what do you do?
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6581410, member: 397965"] It is actually the other way around. Hero is getting 2:1 and only need 33% equity to call. So if you fold here, you are filtering out all the hands, that are behind to KT and assigning the opponent a range consisting of only pretty nutted hands like KJ or better. And just from pure combinatorics there are far more hands, that are worse than KT than the opposite. There is also the fundamental concept of MFD (Minimum Defense Frequenzy), which we always need to have at least somewhat in mind. Against a pot sized bet MDF is 50%, but here the responsibility for defending is shared between two players, which mean, it goes down to 33%. This math is not perfect, because we are not on the river, so hands, that are behind, will have equity. But its close enough to give us an idea, what our default play with KT should be. If KT is in the top third of our range, which is clearly the case after opening on BTN, our default play should be to call. If we dont do that, we make it profitable for the opponent to bluff with any two random napkins. He can fire for pot with J3 offsuit, and it will show an instant profit, because we fold to much. This can be ok, if we have a read, that a certain line is underbluffed, or a certain opponent is never bluffing (nit). But this situation is the exact opposite. We have no read on the opponent, and the line is overbluffed, or at least this is my opinion. We also have position, so playing the turn and river is easier for us than him. You could do that, but a check-raise is a more effective way to get value on this board. True but we also dont have information, that he only takes this line with hands, that beat KT. And again going back to my experience with this line I will say, that if we just look at two different hands, he could have, then this line is taken more often with A7 than KQ. [/QUOTE]
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$20 NL HE STT: Pot-sized bet on flop- what do you do?
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