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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$20 NL HE STT: Borderline play- limp and call shove?
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6674080, member: 397965"] When we are a mid-stack with a big stack on our left, our adjustment is to play less hands and, if at all reasonable, move all-in preflop to take the play away from the chip leader. Here the effective stack was only 10 BB blind vs. blind, which is a completely standard push and fold situation anyway. But with this stack distribution the advantage of playing push or fold becomes even larger. It should be noted also, that this SnG seem to have no ante, and in that situation there is not much reason to have a SB limping strategy in any situation. The purpose of the SB limp is to allow us to play more hands and fight for the ante more often. But when there is no ante, its usually fine to play raise or fold from SB and avoid playing as many pots out of position. We can use ICMizer to illustrate the advantage of playing push or fold in this situation. If Hero push, he can profitably push 38% of hands, which include any pair, any ace, and broadway, most suited kings and a decent chunk of other suited connectors and even the best offsuit connectors like T9o and J9o. A7o is very profitable with +0,71% of the price pool, so there is definitely no kicker issue here. The most important is to have the A blocker, since it mean, we will get called less often. Even A2o is +0,39% of the price pool. If by contrast Hero use a limping strategy, Hero get to play 49% of hands, which in itself is good. However Villain now get to play 100% of hands, since he can take a free flop, and he get to jam 49% of hands. Whereas if Hero jam, Villain only get to call it off 21% of the time. Villains jamming range include almost all suited hands, so he played the GTO strategy by jamming Q8s. Hero on the other hand can only call with 11% of hands, which does not include A7o. In fact Hero need ATo to make a marginal call, and A7o loses Hero 1,01% of the price pool. So if Hero play push or fold, he get to play 38% of hands, and when he enter the pot, he win it uncontested 79% of the time. The other 21% of the time Hero is slightly behind on average but still has the chance to win and dubble up. If on the other hand Hero limp, he can do that with a few more hands. But half the time he will get jammed on, and 80% of the time he will then need to fold. And the other half of the time Hero will need to play postflop out of position against the chip leader, which is usually a very uncomfortable situation with a lot of question marks, and which can easily lead to Hero busting due to some kind of cooler situation or failed bluff catching. Of course this is assuming, that Villain is a good player, who know and follow the equilibrium strategy. If he is a bit of a calling station, then Hero get to jam less hands. But even if I widen Villains calling range to 31% of hands or 50% wider, than its supposed to be, A7o is still a solidly profitable jam for Hero, and only A2o is now unprofitable. So for me the only reason to consider limping here would be, if Villain is very passive both preflop and on the flop. If he will only raise very strong hands and then also fold to a lot of flop stabs, that can be great. But that was not the dynamic described in the writeup. [/QUOTE]
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$20 NL HE STT: Borderline play- limp and call shove?
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