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Poker Strategy
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Tournament Hand Analysis
$2.50 NL HE MTT: Interesting spot w/88
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[QUOTE="fundiver199, post: 6572722, member: 397965"] Preflop Before deciding to put in a 3-bet we should always ask ourselfes, what outcomes we are happy with, and how the rest of the hand is going to play out. With 38BB effective the opponent is getting a decent risk-reward on a 4-bet jam, and since they are out of position, they are incentiviced to do that rather than call. Are we happy to face a 4-bet jam for 38BB with 88? Not really in my opinion. So what then if Villain just call our 3-bet? Then the SPR is only going to be around 2, and 88 is not an easy hand to play with such a low SPR. There are going to be a lot of awkward situations, like the one, which happened in this hand, where its not quite clear, what we want to do. So we are only really happy, if the opponent fold, which mean, we are bluffing. But why pick a hand with no relevant blockers as a bluff? If we are only happy, when they fold, we should be 3-betting hands like A4s or even K5s, since they block hands like AA, KK and AK. This was a long way for me to say, that I do not like this 3-bet. I would just call and look to play with a much deeper SPR than 2, where the value of flopping a set is higher, and where there is more room to use your position to outplay him. Flop Facing this donk bet is certainly an awkward spot, and I can kind of go both ways here. The issue with continuing here is, that he has less than a pot sized bet left, and how often are we going to be able to get to showdown? Realistically we mostly end up folding later, and then its a reasonable exploit to just fold now and be done with the hand. But with that being said it is very weak-tight to 3-bet pre and then fold to a donk bet on a board like this, and we might not want to give him or other players the idea, they can just call our 3-bets and then donk into us on the flop and make us fold a huge percentage of our range. So calling is definitely the more balanced and GTO like approach, which if nothing else force him to empty the clip and risk his entire stack, if he wants to bluff us. Turn Definitely dont see any reason to bet. If he had a flushdraw, he just got there, and maybe he is checking as a trap. If he has a Q, he would also likely check now, because he dont like the third spade. But that does not mean, he is going to fold with less than a pot sized bet left. So if you bet here, I would generally expect, that better hands would call and worse hands fold. This leave protection as the only reason to bet, and I simply dont think, you have the best hand often enough to think about protecting it. River When he jam now, he is essentially saying, he has a Q and just filled up. Or maybe once in a while a weirdly played KK-AA. You dont block any of the logical QX hands or for that matter KK-AA, and I dont think, he is taking this line with 33-77. So if you want to make a big hero call here, AK is actually a better candidate than 88. The other issue is, that the main draw got there. Not because he is likely to be checking turn and jamming river with a flush on a obvious full house board. But when a draw got there, it dont need to bluff. So we are down to hands like a wheeldraw or total air. I dont think, there is enough of that in his range, so good fold. [/QUOTE]
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$2.50 NL HE MTT: Interesting spot w/88
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